Next Supreme Leader of Iran election

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Next Iranian Supreme Leader election
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88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win
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An election for the third Supreme Leader of Iran is scheduled to be held following the end of the current tenure of Ali Khamenei. As of January 2024, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have written on potential candidates.

The succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but isn't disclosed publicly.[1][2] Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. Its fifth and current term was elected in 2016 and is scheduled to sit until 2024.[3]

Khamenei has not discussed his replacement. He has said selecting the future leader must be without care and shame and or regard expediency but based on only the 3 principles of "truth, the need of the country, and God".[4][5]

A four man council of Assembly of Experts is examining possible candidates while keeping it fully secret and advising the current supreme leader as of 2024.[6][7]

Constitutional eligibility[edit]

Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the Assembly of Experts to serve a life tenure. According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor.[3] A 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council.[3]

Alleged plans[edit]

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[8] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[8] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[8] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Ebrahim Raisi and Ahmad Khatami were considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[9]

As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts is discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of Vice Supreme Leader, which was last held by Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989.[10]

Analysis[edit]

In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei.[11] John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[12]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators[edit]

The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Hassan Rouhani Hassan Khomeini Mohsen Araki Alireza Arafi
75 years, 167 days 51 years, 146 days c. 67–68 years c. 64–65 years
[2] [2][3][13][14][15] [3][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] [3]
Ebrahim Raisi Mojtaba Khamenei Sadeq Larijani Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri
63 years, 135 days 54 years, 232 days 63 years, 46 days c. 62–63 years
[3][15][16][17][19][20][21][23][24][25][26][27] [3][13][16][18][20][23][24][25][26] [3] [13][15][17][18][20][25][26]

Deceased candidates[edit]

People mentioned below had been regarded as potential candidates during their lifetime.

Abbas Vaez-Tabasi Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi Ebrahim Amini Mohammad Yazdi Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi
1935–2016 1934–2017 1948–2018 1925–2020 1931–2020 1934–2021
[13] [2][13][14][28] [2][13][14][16][15][20][21][23][24][28][29] [2] [13] [13][14][20][26]

Further reading[edit]

  • Nader, Alireza; Bohandy, S. R. (2011). The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran (PDF). Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation. ISBN 9780833051998.
  • Opinion Poll: Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? (in Persian), BBC Persian, 22 February 2016

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (21 October 2014), Williams, Alison (ed.), "Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani", Reuters, archived from the original on 16 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  2. ^ a b c d e f Kamali Dehghan, Saeed (31 October 2014), "When the time comes, who will succeed Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?", The Guardian, archived from the original on 20 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401, archived from the original on 6 December 2020, retrieved 11 December 2020
  4. ^ "چه کسی راست می‌گوید؟ − نگاهی به "بحران جانشینی"" [Who is telling the truth? - A look at the "succession crisis"]. Radio Zamaneh (in Persian). 13 June 2020. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  5. ^ رادیوفردا (10 March 2016). "خامنه‌ای: لازم است در انتخاب رهبر رودربایستی و مصلحت‌اندیشی نباشد". Radio Farda (in Persian). Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  6. ^ "عضو مجلس خبرگان ایران: کار برای انتخاب جانشین رهبر ایران به طور "کاملا مخفی" جریان دارد". Afghanistan International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  7. ^ "ماجرای صحبت‌های آیت‌الله توکل درباره انتخاب قائم‌مقام رهبری چه بود؟" [What was the story of Ayatollah Tawakkel's talks about the selection of the deputy leadership?]. اعتمادآنلاین (in Persian). 29 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  8. ^ a b c "Is Iran's Next Supreme Leader Already Chosen?", Radio Farda, 18 June 2019, archived from the original on 18 June 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  9. ^ "Reports And Denials On Succession Planning For Khamenei", Radio Farda, 14 February 2019, archived from the original on 14 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  10. ^ "توکل، عضو مجلس خبرگان: در کمیسیون‌های خبرگان در مورد قائم مقام رهبری کار می‌کنند" [Tawakkul, member of the Assembly of Experts: They work in expert commissions regarding the deputy leadership]. Iran International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  11. ^ فردا, رادیو (22 August 2023). "سازمان اطلاعات نظامی ارتش اسرائیل: رئیسی احتمالاً رهبر بعدی جمهوری اسلامی است" [Israel Military Intelligence Organization: Raisi is likely to be the next leader of the Islamic Republic]. Radio Farda (in Persian). Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  12. ^ "Bolton Foresees Regime Change In Iran After Khamenei's Death". Iran International. 11 August 2023. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (13 December 2015), "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?", BBC, archived from the original on 3 February 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  14. ^ a b c d Bordbar, Behdad (15 July 2015), "Who will be Iran's next supreme leader?", Al-Monitor, archived from the original on 22 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  15. ^ a b c d Perteghella, Annalisa (18 May 2017), "The "Other" Election: After Khamenei Who Will Succeed?", Italian Institute for International Political Studies, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  16. ^ a b c d "Predicting the Unpredictable in Iranian Politics", Stratfor, 8 March 2017, archived from the original on 8 March 2017, retrieved 15 March 2017
  17. ^ a b c Bozorgmehr, Najmeh (23 January 2020), "Iran: the unspoken battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei", The Financial Times, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  18. ^ a b c Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, archived from the original on 8 November 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  19. ^ a b Dehghanpisheh, Babak (9 May 2017), Graff, Peter (ed.), "Iran Guards look beyond election to next supreme leader", Reuters, archived from the original on 9 May 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  20. ^ a b c d e f Vakil, Sanam; Rassam, Hossein (May–June 2017), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic After Khamenei", Foreign Affairs, archived from the original on 11 April 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  21. ^ a b c MacMillan, Arthur (10 February 2019), "Explainer: How Iran will pick its next supreme leader", The National, archived from the original on 10 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  22. ^ Samadi, Mona (11 February 2020), "As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?", Middle East Institute, archived from the original on 23 February 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  23. ^ a b c d Abdo, Geneive (4 February 2019), "Iran's Battle Over Khamenei's Successor is Just Getting Started", Center for the National Interest, archived from the original on 6 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  24. ^ a b c Ganji, Akbar (4 August 2017), "Khamenei's New Potential Hard-line Successor", Radio Farda, archived from the original on 2 March 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  25. ^ a b c Funes, Rossina; Gladin, Maeve (24 May 2019), "Khamenei is turning 80: Who will be next Iran's Supreme Leader?", University of Navarra, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  26. ^ a b c d "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader", BBC Monitoring, 5 December 2018, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  27. ^ Bob, Yonah Jeremy (8 August 2019), "Has Ebrahim Raisi been tagged as Iran's next Supreme Leader?", The Jerusalem Post, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  28. ^ a b Sadjadpour, Karim (2009), "Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader" (PDF), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, archived (PDF) from the original on 25 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  29. ^ Lim, Kevjn (10 January 2019), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader Is Dead", Foreign Policy, archived from the original on 11 January 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
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