2020 United States presidential election in New York
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| Elections in New York State |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris.[2] New York had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously.[4] This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting.[5]
Despite Donald Trump's longtime association with the state, New York was considered to be a state Biden would win or a safe blue state. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by New York City, the most populated city in the US and a Democratic stronghold home to around 43% of the state's population.[6] Biden's victory came from overwhelming strength with Black and Hispanic voters, especially those from New York City,[7] as well as strong support throughout the state, particularly in suburban areas such as Westchester and Nassau counties, from college-educated, suburban, Hispanic, Asian, and Multiracial voters.
New York voted 19% more Democratic than the national average. This was the first time since 1992 that Orange, Oswego, Washington, Madison, and Warren counties voted for the losing presidential candidate, as well as the first since 1976 that a Democrat won without Cayuga, Cortland, Otsego, Seneca, Franklin, Niagara, and St. Lawrence counties, and the first since 1960 that a Democrat won without Sullivan County.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 28, New York State elections officials moved the primary date to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[8]
Canceled Republican primary
[edit]On March 3, 2020, the New York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers, Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neither Rocky De La Fuente nor Joe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump was automatically able to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention.[9][10]
Democratic primary
[edit]On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot.[11] However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidate Andrew Yang.[12]
Among the other major candidates were entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the fourth Democratic debate.
Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,136,679 | 64.62 | 230 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 285,908 | 16.25 | 44 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 82,917 | 4.71 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 39,433 | 2.24 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 22,927 | 1.30 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 22,686 | 1.29 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 11,028 | 0.63 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 9,083 | 0.52 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 3,040 | 0.17 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 2,932 | 0.17 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 2,299 | 0.13 | |
| Blank ballots / Void ballots | [a]140,107 | 7.96 | |
| Total | 1,759,039 | 100% | 274 |
Conservative
[edit]The Conservative Party of New York State cross-endorsed the Republican ticket, nominating Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.[15]
Working Families
[edit]The Working Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president.[16] Several prominent Democrats, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access.[17]
Green
[edit]The Green Party of New York nominated the national Green Party ticket; Howie Hawkins for president and Angela Nicole Walker for vice president.
Libertarian primary
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Future of Freedom Foundation Founder Jacob Hornberger was the sole candidate to qualify for the New York primary ballot. Therefore, in accordance with state law, he was declared the winner of the primary by default. As the winner of the primary, Libertarian Party of New York rules permitted Hornberger to choose 27 of the state's 48 unbound delegates to the 2020 Libertarian National Convention. The Libertarian Party of New York was the only Libertarian state affiliate to choose any of its delegates on the basis of its presidential primary or caucus.[18]
Independence
[edit]The Independence Party of New York nominated independent candidates Brock Pierce for president and Karla Ballard for vice president.[19]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[21] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[23] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[24] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[25] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[26] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[27] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[28] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[29] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[30] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[31] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[32] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[33] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[34] | April 30 – September 29, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 59.7% | 31.0% | 9.3% | Biden +28.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight[35] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 62.3% | 32.9% | 4.8% | Biden +29.4 |
| Average | 61.0% | 32.0% | 7.1% | Biden +29.1 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 6,548 (LV) | ± 2% | 35%[d] | 63% | – | – | – | – |
| Research Co.[37] | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 34% | 64% | - | - | 2%[e] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 10,220 (LV) | – | 34% | 63% | - | - | – | – |
| Swayable[38] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 495 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 33% | 65% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 10,007 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Siena College[39] | Sep 27–29, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 61% | 0% | 1% | 2%[f] | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 9,969 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[40] | Aug 20–22, 2020 | 1,029 (V) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 63% | - | - | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 10,280 (LV) | – | 34% | 63% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[36] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 4,555 (LV) | – | 33% | 65% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Siena College[41] | Jun 23–25, 2020 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 57% | - | - | – | 10% |
| Siena College[42] | May 17–21, 2020 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 57% | - | - | – | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[43] | Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 32% | 55% | - | - | 5%[g] | 8% |
| Siena College[44] | Apr 19–23, 2020 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 29% | 65% | - | - | – | 6% |
| Siena College[45] | Mar 22–26, 2020 | 566 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 33% | 58% | - | - | – | 10% |
| Siena College[46] | Feb 16–20, 2020 | 658 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 55% | - | - | – | 5% |
Former candidates
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio
with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
|
Electoral slates
[edit]These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[48]
| Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party Working Families Party |
Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party Conservative Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker Green Party |
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard Independence Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June O'Neill Xiao Wang Katherine M. Sheehan Thomas J. Garry Lovely Warren Gary S. LaBarbera Stuart H. Applebaum Mary Sullivan George K. Gresham Randi Weingarten Mario F. Cilento Alphonso David Hazel Nell Dukes Christine Quinn Byron Brown Corey Johnson Scott Stringer Andrea Stewart-Cousins Carl Heastie Jay Jacobs Letitia James Thomas DiNapoli Kathy Hochul Andrew Cuomo Hillary Clinton Bill Clinton Rubén Díaz Jr. Judith Hunter Anastasia Somoza |
Brendan Lantry Jesus Garcia Susan McNeil Joseph Cairo William Napier Karl Simmeth Christine Benedict Joann Ariola Carl Zeilman Jennifer Saul Rich Charlie Joyce Adrian Anderson Rob Ortt Will Barclay John Burnett Chloe Sun Elie Hirschfeld Yechezkel Moskowitz Shaun Marie Levine Christopher Kendall Francis Vella-Marrone Andrea Catsimatidis John Gereau Rodney Strange Todd Rouse Trisha Turner Robert Keis Nick Langworthy Tom Dadey |
Daniel P. Donnelly Duane J. Whitmer Robert M. Arrigo Mark N. Axinn Erin M. Becker Rachel E. Becker Richard Bell Kari R. Bittner Mark S. Braiman Jay A. Carr Tucker C. Coburn Anthony D'Orazio Kevin A. Wilson Milva E. Dordal Pietro S. Geraci Paul M. Grindle Mark E. Glogowski Shawn Hannon Andrew M. Kolstee Peyton D. Kunselman Brandon G. Lyon Leonard E. Morlock Lora L. Newell Gary Popkin Thomas D. Quiter Ilya Schwartzburg Paul C. Sechrist Larry Sharpe William C. Anderson |
Stephen Bloom Peter A. Lavenia Cassandra J. Lems Paul W. Gilman Darin Robbins Barbara A. Kidney Joseph R. Naham Michael E. O'Neil Eric M. Jones Carol S. Przybylak Tatianna M. Moragne James R. Brown III James McCabe Candace Carponter Michael D. Emperor Jennifer R. White Allan D. Hunter Mary B. House Serena L. Seals David Sutliff-Atias Craig A. Seeman Daneilla Liebling Adrienne R. Craig-Williams Christopher J. Archer Claudia Flanagan Gil Obler Debra A. Rosario Gloria Mattera David L. Giannascoli |
Kenneth Bayne Scott R. Major Robert G. Pilnick Barbara Pilnick Gary P. Newman Arthur Abbate Joseph W. Fuller Maryann H. Major Andrew J. Bogardt Anna C. Bogardt Robert J. Bogardt Trisha L. Sterling Thomas Hatfield Thomas A. Connolly Atef S. Zeina Lee Kolesnikoff Joseph L. Baruth Paul E. Caputo Edward G. Miller Thomas S. Connolly Dennis R. Zack Michael Amo Richard S. Bellando Maryellen Bellando William Bogardt Teresa Bogardt Frank M. MacKay Kristin A. MacKay Carolyn P. Major |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
4,858,273 | 56.38% | −0.34% | |
| Working Families | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
386,613 | 4.48% | +2.65% | |
| Total | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
5,244,886 | 60.87% | +1.85% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
2,955,662 | 34.30% | +1.57% | |
| Conservative | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
296,335 | 3.44% | −0.34% | |
| Total | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
3,251,997 | 37.74% | +1.22% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
60,383 | 0.70% | −0.05% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
32,832 | 0.38% | −1.02% | |
| Independence | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
22,656 | 0.26% | −1.29% | |
| Write-in | 4,107 | 0.04% | -0.75% | ||
| Total votes | 8,616,861 | 100.00% | +11.60% | ||
New York City results
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in New York City | Manhattan | The Bronx | Brooklyn | Queens | Staten Island | Total | |||
| Democratic- Working Families |
Joe Biden | 603,040 | 355,374 | 703,310 | 569,038 | 90,997 | 2,321,759 | 76.2% | |
| 86.4% | 83.3% | 76.8% | 72.0% | 42.0% | |||||
| Republican- Conservative |
Donald Trump | 85,185 | 67,740 | 202,772 | 212,665 | 123,320 | 691,682 | 22.7% | |
| 12.2% | 15.9% | 22.1% | 26.9% | 56.9% | |||||
| Others | Others | 9,588 | 3,579 | 9,927 | 8,278 | 2,450 | 33,822 | 1.1% | |
| 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |||||
| Total | 697,813 | 426,693 | 916,009 | 789,981 | 216,767 | 3,047,263 | 100.00% | ||
By New York City Council district
[edit]
Biden won 47 of 51 New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won four districts, including two held by Democrats.[50]
By county
[edit]| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Albany | 99,474 | 64.55% | 51,081 | 33.15% | 3,546 | 2.30% | 48,393 | 31.40% | 154,101 |
| Allegany | 6,048 | 29.10% | 14,135 | 68.02% | 599 | 2.88% | -8,087 | -38.92% | 20,782 |
| Bronx | 355,374 | 83.29% | 67,740 | 15.88% | 3,579 | 0.83% | 287,634 | 67.41% | 426,693 |
| Broome | 47,002 | 50.53% | 43,791 | 47.08% | 2,223 | 2.39% | 3,211 | 3.45% | 93,016 |
| Cattaraugus | 11,879 | 34.17% | 22,155 | 63.74% | 726 | 2.09% | -10,276 | -29.57% | 34,760 |
| Cayuga | 16,359 | 44.44% | 19,632 | 53.33% | 818 | 2.23% | -3,273 | -8.89% | 36,809 |
| Chautauqua | 23,088 | 38.93% | 34,853 | 58.77% | 1,364 | 2.30% | -11,765 | -19.84% | 59,305 |
| Chemung | 16,636 | 42.21% | 21,922 | 55.63% | 852 | 2.16% | -5,286 | -13.42% | 39,410 |
| Chenango | 8,300 | 37.14% | 13,496 | 60.38% | 554 | 2.48% | -5,196 | -23.24% | 22,350 |
| Clinton | 18,364 | 51.82% | 16,514 | 46.60% | 559 | 1.58% | 1,850 | 5.22% | 35,437 |
| Columbia | 20,386 | 57.25% | 14,464 | 40.62% | 760 | 2.13% | 5,922 | 16.63% | 35,610 |
| Cortland | 10,370 | 47.83% | 10,789 | 49.77% | 520 | 2.40% | -419 | -1.94% | 21,679 |
| Delaware | 9,143 | 39.71% | 13,387 | 58.14% | 495 | 2.15% | -4,244 | -18.43% | 23,025 |
| Dutchess | 81,443 | 53.89% | 66,872 | 44.25% | 2,807 | 1.86% | 14,571 | 9.64% | 151,122 |
| Erie | 267,270 | 56.46% | 197,552 | 41.73% | 8,596 | 1.81% | 69,718 | 14.73% | 473,418 |
| Essex | 9,950 | 51.61% | 8,982 | 46.59% | 348 | 1.80% | 968 | 5.02% | 19,280 |
| Franklin | 9,253 | 48.02% | 9,668 | 50.18% | 347 | 1.80% | -415 | -2.16% | 19,268 |
| Fulton | 7,931 | 33.44% | 15,378 | 64.84% | 409 | 1.72% | -7,447 | -31.40% | 23,718 |
| Genesee | 9,625 | 32.94% | 18,876 | 64.61% | 716 | 2.45% | -9,251 | -31.67% | 29,217 |
| Greene | 10,346 | 41.07% | 14,271 | 56.64% | 577 | 2.29% | -3,925 | -15.57% | 25,194 |
| Hamilton | 1,178 | 34.05% | 2,225 | 64.31% | 57 | 1.64% | -1,047 | -30.26% | 3,460 |
| Herkimer | 9,939 | 33.90% | 18,871 | 64.36% | 512 | 1.74% | -8,932 | -30.46% | 29,322 |
| Jefferson | 17,307 | 39.46% | 25,629 | 58.44% | 919 | 2.10% | -8,322 | -18.98% | 43,855 |
| Kings | 703,310 | 76.78% | 202,772 | 22.14% | 9,927 | 1.08% | 500,538 | 54.64% | 916,009 |
| Lewis | 3,823 | 29.49% | 8,890 | 68.57% | 251 | 1.94% | -5,067 | -39.08% | 12,964 |
| Livingston | 12,477 | 39.73% | 18,182 | 57.90% | 742 | 2.37% | -5,705 | -18.17% | 31,401 |
| Madison | 14,805 | 43.50% | 18,409 | 54.09% | 821 | 2.41% | -3,604 | -10.59% | 34,035 |
| Monroe | 225,746 | 59.25% | 145,661 | 38.23% | 9,582 | 2.52% | 80,085 | 21.02% | 380,989 |
| Montgomery | 7,977 | 37.69% | 12,745 | 60.22% | 442 | 2.09% | -4,768 | -22.53% | 21,164 |
| Nassau | 396,504 | 54.11% | 326,716 | 44.59% | 9,536 | 1.30% | 69,788 | 9.52% | 732,756 |
| New York | 603,040 | 86.42% | 85,185 | 12.21% | 9,588 | 1.37% | 517,855 | 74.21% | 697,813 |
| Niagara | 46,029 | 44.21% | 56,068 | 53.85% | 2,026 | 1.94% | -10,039 | -9.64% | 104,123 |
| Oneida | 41,973 | 41.15% | 57,860 | 56.73% | 2,163 | 2.12% | -15,887 | -15.58% | 101,996 |
| Onondaga | 138,991 | 58.88% | 91,715 | 38.85% | 5,362 | 2.27% | 47,276 | 20.03% | 236,068 |
| Ontario | 28,749 | 48.48% | 28,782 | 48.54% | 1,769 | 2.98% | -33 | -0.06% | 59,300 |
| Orange | 84,955 | 49.24% | 85,068 | 49.30% | 2,516 | 1.46% | -113 | -0.06% | 172,539 |
| Orleans | 5,587 | 30.78% | 12,126 | 66.80% | 441 | 2.42% | -6,539 | -36.02% | 18,154 |
| Oswego | 21,145 | 38.80% | 32,142 | 58.98% | 1,211 | 2.22% | -10,997 | -20.18% | 54,498 |
| Otsego | 12,975 | 46.21% | 14,382 | 51.22% | 723 | 2.57% | -1,407 | -5.01% | 28,080 |
| Putnam | 24,955 | 45.27% | 29,283 | 53.12% | 884 | 1.61% | -4,328 | -7.85% | 55,122 |
| Queens | 569,038 | 72.03% | 212,665 | 26.92% | 8,278 | 1.05% | 356,373 | 45.11% | 789,981 |
| Rensselaer | 40,969 | 51.59% | 36,500 | 45.96% | 1,940 | 2.45% | 4,469 | 5.63% | 79,409 |
| Richmond | 90,997 | 41.98% | 123,320 | 56.89% | 2,450 | 1.13% | -32,323 | -14.91% | 216,767 |
| Rockland | 75,802 | 50.30% | 73,186 | 48.56% | 1,714 | 1.14% | 2,616 | 1.74% | 150,702 |
| Saratoga | 68,471 | 51.62% | 61,305 | 46.21% | 2,879 | 2.17% | 7,166 | 5.41% | 132,655 |
| Schenectady | 42,465 | 56.58% | 30,741 | 40.96% | 1,841 | 2.46% | 11,724 | 15.62% | 75,047 |
| Schoharie | 5,345 | 34.02% | 9,903 | 63.04% | 462 | 2.94% | -4,558 | -29.02% | 15,710 |
| Schuyler | 3,903 | 39.97% | 5,621 | 57.56% | 242 | 2.47% | -1,718 | -17.59% | 9,766 |
| Seneca | 6,914 | 44.23% | 8,329 | 53.28% | 389 | 2.49% | -1,415 | -9.05% | 15,632 |
| St. Lawrence | 19,361 | 43.11% | 24,608 | 54.80% | 938 | 2.09% | -5,247 | -11.69% | 44,907 |
| Steuben | 15,790 | 34.19% | 29,474 | 63.83% | 915 | 1.98% | -13,684 | -29.64% | 46,179 |
| Suffolk | 381,021 | 49.27% | 381,253 | 49.30% | 11,013 | 1.43% | -232 | -0.03% | 773,287 |
| Sullivan | 15,489 | 44.71% | 18,665 | 53.87% | 493 | 1.42% | -3,176 | -9.16% | 34,647 |
| Tioga | 9,634 | 38.48% | 14,791 | 59.08% | 611 | 2.44% | -5,157 | -20.60% | 25,036 |
| Tompkins | 33,619 | 73.51% | 11,096 | 24.26% | 1,020 | 2.23% | 22,523 | 49.25% | 45,735 |
| Ulster | 57,970 | 59.51% | 37,590 | 38.59% | 1,860 | 1.90% | 20,380 | 20.92% | 97,420 |
| Warren | 17,642 | 48.80% | 17,699 | 48.96% | 808 | 2.24% | -57 | -0.16% | 36,149 |
| Washington | 11,565 | 41.10% | 15,941 | 56.65% | 632 | 2.25% | -4,376 | -15.55% | 28,138 |
| Wayne | 17,456 | 39.03% | 26,204 | 58.59% | 1,067 | 2.38% | -8,748 | -19.56% | 44,727 |
| Westchester | 312,437 | 67.57% | 144,731 | 31.30% | 5,196 | 1.13% | 167,706 | 36.27% | 462,364 |
| Wyoming | 5,073 | 26.11% | 13,898 | 71.52% | 461 | 2.37% | -8,825 | -45.41% | 19,432 |
| Yates | 4,219 | 39.35% | 6,208 | 57.89% | 296 | 2.76% | -1,989 | -18.54% | 10,723 |
| Totals | 5,244,886 | 60.76% | 3,251,997 | 37.67% | 135,372 | 1.57% | 1,992,889 | 23.09% | 8,632,255 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Broome (county seat: Binghamton)
- Essex (county seat: Elizabethtown)
- Rensselaer (county seat: Troy)
- Saratoga (county seat: Ballston Spa)
By congressional district
[edit]Biden won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including one held by a Republican.[51]
| District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.3% | 51.5% | Lee Zeldin |
| 2nd | 47.4% | 51.4% | Andrew Garbarino |
| 3rd | 54.7% | 44.3% | Thomas Suozzi |
| 4th | 55.6% | 43.4% | Kathleen Rice |
| 5th | 83.3% | 16.2% | Gregory Meeks |
| 6th | 61.8% | 37.4% | Grace Meng |
| 7th | 81.9% | 17.3% | Nydia Velázquez |
| 8th | 82.9% | 16.5% | Hakeem Jeffries |
| 9th | 81.4% | 17.8% | Yvette Clarke |
| 10th | 76.1% | 22.9% | Jerry Nadler |
| 11th | 44.3% | 54.8% | Nicole Malliotakis |
| 12th | 84.1% | 14.8% | Carolyn Maloney |
| 13th | 88.2% | 11.1% | Adriano Espaillat |
| 14th | 73.7% | 25.9% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
| 15th | 86.4% | 13% | Ritchie Torres |
| 16th | 75.3% | 23.8% | Jamaal Bowman |
| 17th | 59.6% | 39.4% | Mondaire Jones |
| 18th | 51.8% | 46.8% | Sean Patrick Maloney |
| 19th | 49.8% | 48.3% | Antonio Delgado |
| 20th | 59.3% | 38.7% | Paul Tonko |
| 21st | 43.8% | 54.2% | Elise Stefanik |
| 22nd | 43.2% | 54.7% | Claudia Tenney |
| 23rd | 43.3% | 54.5% | Tom Reed |
| 24th | 53.4% | 44.4% | John Katko |
| 25th | 60.1% | 37.8% | Joe Morelle |
| 26th | 62.6% | 35.6% | Brian Higgins |
| 27th | 41.1% | 56.8% | Chris Jacobs |
Analysis
[edit]
New York continued its streak as a solidly blue state, with Biden winning 60.87% of the vote to Trump's 37.74%, a Democratic victory margin of 23.13%. Due to a decrease in third-party voting, both candidates increased their party's vote share from 2016, though Biden's margin of victory was slightly wider than Hillary Clinton's.
New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019,[5][52] led to weekslong delays in counting them.[53] Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail.[54] New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted.[55] State Senator Michael Gianaris commented, "if we were a swing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal".[53] New York's voting tabulation was updated on March 15, 2021.
The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon referred to as a "red mirage."[56] However, when all the votes were counted, Biden outperformed Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to a major improvement across Upstate New York and on Long Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump (with the exception of Staten Island).
Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
Biden flipped four counties that Trump won in 2016: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga.[57][58] Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lost Cortland County by 419 votes, Franklin County by 415 votes, Ontario County by 33 votes, Orange County by 113 votes, Suffolk County by 232 votes, and Warren County by just 57 votes.[59] Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1,269 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all six counties. According to exit polls by CNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote.[60]
Biden dominated core Democratic constituencies in New York City, winning 76% of the city's vote.[61] Statewide, Biden won 94% of Black voters and 76% of Latino voters.[61] Biden won the upstate of New York (excluding New York City's results), albeit by a much smaller 52.4% to 45.9% margin, or 2,923,127 votes to Trump's 2,561,315. In urban Dominican neighborhoods, Trump reached only 15% of the vote to Biden's 85%.[62] Biden also won by 18 points in the Hudson Valley and urban Upstate counties. Trump's core support base came from rural Upstate counties. However, Trump made strong inroads with Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods of New York City[63][64] and in Hasidic Jewish communities in Rockland County.[65] The shift is attributed to Trump's strong pro-Israel stance as president.[63] New York was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois.
Edison exit polls
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in New York by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[66][67] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 60.87 | 37.74 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 86 | 13 | 33 |
| Moderates | 63 | 35 | 44 |
| Conservatives | 21 | 79 | 23 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 97 | 3 | 39 |
| Republicans | 18 | 81 | 30 |
| Independents | 57 | 40 | 31 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 60 | 39 | 48 |
| Women | 62 | 37 | 52 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 50 | 48 | 60 |
| Black | 94 | 6 | 12 |
| Latino | 76 | 22 | 16 |
| Asian | – | – | 8 |
| Other | – | – | 4 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 65 | 33 | 17 |
| 30–39 years old | 64 | 33 | 14 |
| 40–49 years old | 68 | 29 | 20 |
| 50–64 years old | 57 | 43 | 30 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 47 | 19 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 4 |
| Not LGBT | 60 | 37 | 96 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 49 | 51 | 16 |
| Some college education | 65 | 33 | 21 |
| Associate degree | 37 | 61 | 15 |
| Bachelor's degree | 70 | 29 | 24 |
| Postgraduate degree | 71 | 26 | 23 |
| Region | |||
| New York City | 76 | 22 | 36 |
| Long Island | – | – | 17 |
| Hudson Valley | 58 | 40 | 17 |
| Urban Upstate | 58 | 41 | 15 |
| Rural Upstate | 46 | 53 | 15 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 73 | 26 | 48 |
| Suburban | 50 | 49 | 44 |
| Rural | – | – | 8 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New York
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 New York state elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ 135,486 blank and 4,621 void ballots
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
References
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- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
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- ^ a b Ferré-Sadurní, Luis (August 20, 2020). "New York Will Allow Voters to Cast Mail-In Ballots". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ "New York Population 2024 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs)". worldpopulationreview.com. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
- ^ "New York 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
- ^ "New York presidential primary postponed amid record numbers of coronavirus cases". ABC News. March 28, 2020.
- ^ "New York might cancel Republican presidential primary". Politico. February 28, 2020.
- ^ "New York cancels Republican presidential primary". Politico. March 3, 2020.
- ^ "New York cancels Democratic presidential primary". Politico. April 28, 2020.
- ^ "Judge rules New York Democratic presidential primary will take place as planned". CNN. May 6, 2020.
- ^ "Certified Results from the June 23, 2020 Presidential Primary Election" (PDF). New York State Board of Elections. September 18, 2020. Retrieved September 20, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: New York Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 3, 2020.
- ^ Reisman, Nick (August 31, 2020). "NY Conservative Party Backs Trump's Re-Election". NY1. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
- ^ Nichols, John (August 14, 2020). "The Working Families Party Endorses Biden and Harris". The Nation. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
- ^ Slattery, Denis (October 26, 2020). "Working Families Party gets support from New Yorkers and U.S. Senators Schumer, Gillibrand". New York Daily News. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
- ^ Howman, David (April 1, 2020). "Did Jacob Hornberger Rig the New York Libertarian Primary?". The Libertarian Republic. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
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- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
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- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Swayable
- ^ Siena College [permanent dead link]
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Siena College
- ^ Siena College
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Siena College
- ^ Siena College
- ^ a b c d e f Siena College
- ^ a b Siena College
- ^ "AMENDED Certification for the November 3, 2020 General Election" (PDF). New York Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 23, 2020. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- ^ 2020 Election Results Archived January 15, 2021, at the Wayback Machine, New York State Board of Elections, December 3, 2020.
- ^ "NYC City Council - 2013-2022 districts". DRA 2020 Daves Redistricting. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
- ^ "Introducing the 2021 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
- ^ "Governor Cuomo Signs Landmark Legislation Modernizing New York's Voting Laws". Albany: Governor Andrew M. Cuomo. January 24, 2019. Archived from the original on January 26, 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ a b Krieg, Gregory; Simko-Bednarski, Evan (November 18, 2020). "'It's embarrassing': Why New York is still waiting for full election results". CNN. Archived from the original on November 18, 2020. Retrieved March 22, 2021.
- ^ "NY May Speed Up And Permanently Expand Vote-By-Mail, Reform Absentee Count Process". NBC New York. November 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 26, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ Bergin, Brigid (November 28, 2020). "NYC Blows Past Deadline To Certify General Election Results As Lawmakers Push Reforms". Gothamist. Archived from the original on November 28, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ Kahn, Chris; Lange, Jason (November 3, 2020). "Explainer: Red mirage, blue mirage - Beware of early U.S. election wins". Reuters. Retrieved December 30, 2020.
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- ^ "New York Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
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- ^ a b "New York 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 8, 2021.
- ^ Cai, Weiyi; Fessenden, Ford (December 21, 2020). "Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
- ^ a b Kolko, Jed; Monkovic, Toni (December 7, 2020). "The Places That Had the Biggest Swings Toward and Against Trump". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved August 8, 2021.
- ^ J. Miles Coleman [@JMilesColeman] (December 2, 2020). "Biden carried Jerry Nadler's NY-10 by 76%-23%, down a bit from Clinton's 77%-19%. Brooklyn makes up about 1/5 of the district, and it takes in many Orthodox Jewish precincts. Trump carried that part by <1% in 2016, but won it 56%-43% this time" (Tweet). Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. Retrieved January 15, 2023 – via Twitter.
- ^ Tapper, Jake [@jaketapper] (March 14, 2021). "New Square is an all-Hasidic village in Rockland County NY. This is @bidenflippedit are interesting https://t.co/FNX9Qeeb0d" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 5, 2022. Retrieved January 15, 2023 – via Twitter.
- ^ "New York 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
- ^ "New York Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
New York
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New York", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "New York: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of New York". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- New York at Ballotpedia
