Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/2024 elections in India

The following discussion is an archived debate of the proposed deletion of the article below. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review). No further edits should be made to this page.

The result was keep. The argument for deletion focused on WP:CRYSTAL, which discourages articles on future events unless they are "almost certain to take place". However, it does allow for articles about some future events, particularly if "speculation about it [is] well documented". The keep argument holds that that is the case here, as supported by multiple news sources. The closely related Next Indian general election article was a near-unanimous "keep" in a 2019 AfD on the same basis. The main distinction here is that the article specifies 2024 as the year of the elections, which is somewhat less certain, but concerns about details of article title and content are not typically accepted as good reasons for deletion (with some exceptions, such as WP:BLP1E and WP:TNT, which were not argued here). So "keep" appears to have the stronger argument from policy and past practice, as well as the majority in the comments. RL0919 (talk) 19:51, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

2024 elections in India

[Hide this box] New to Articles for deletion (AfD)? Read these primers!

• How to contribute
• Introduction to deletion process
• Guide to deletion (glossary)
• Help, my article got nominated for deletion!

2024 elections in India (edit | talk | history | protect | delete | links | watch | logs | views) – (View log | edits since nomination)

(Find sources: Google (books · news · scholar · free images · WP refs) · FENS · JSTOR · TWL)

Article is a clear WP:CRYSTAL violation. No elections are currently scheduled in India for 2024. All the elections listed are of uncertain date as they may be called early (hence why the titles of all the elections linked are 'Next ... election', not '2024 ... election'). Was prodded (and misleading content around claimed 2024 elections removed), but prod removed and misleading info reinstated by article creator without explanation. Number 57 09:04, 24 November 2021 (UTC)

• Note: This discussion has been included in the list of Politics-related deletion discussions. ^{Engr. Smitty Werben} 14:28, 24 November 2021 (UTC)
• Note: This discussion has been included in the list of Events-related deletion discussions. ^{Engr. Smitty Werben} 14:28, 24 November 2021 (UTC)
• Note: This discussion has been included in the list of India-related deletion discussions. ^{Engr. Smitty Werben} 14:29, 24 November 2021 (UTC)
• Delete: WP:TOOSOON applies. There are no reliable sources and none expected until 2023. No point in keeping an unsourced stub for 2 years. The article should not be created until 2023, (or until a time when reliable sources . Venkat TL (talk) 14:45, 24 November 2021 (UTC)
• Keep Indian press is full of articles about the 2024 elections at national level and in the larger states (eg AP and Maharashtra). We have a 2024 United States presidential election, which is for a country with a population only one-quarter of India's. FWIW, TOOSOON is not policy. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 09:22, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Also, these are parliaments whose terms expire in 2024, AFAICS none have called an early election in at least 20 years. A little more than two years away, it is not an unreasonable assumption to conclude, as evidenced by articles in the Indian press, that there will be elections in India in 2024 at state and national level. Furthermore, given the Election Commission lists the terms of all the current parliaments of India, one could potentially make the argument that articles could be extended up to and including 2026. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 09:41, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

@Goldsztajn You are referring to a different article that is located at Next Indian general election. No one has AfDed that. This article is about "(All) Elections in India in a future year". As I said in my comment above, unless there are reliable sources about elections, that page should not be created. Speculatory dates and speculations should not be added. Look at the alliance section. It says that INC, SS and NCP will have alliance without giving any source. It is not finalized yet and at this stage they are mere speculations. The entire article is full of unsourced speculations. Wikipedia should not be hosting unsourced speculations. Hence my delete vote at this time. Venkat TL (talk) 09:47, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

I'm fully aware of the distinction; to reiterate, I wrote: "the 2024 elections at national level and in the larger states" (emphasis added). Also, questions over content do not relate to notability. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 10:24, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Once the speculatory contents are removed. There will be nothing left in the article. I am not removing it now as it is in AfD. No article can survive in the mainspace without reliable source confirming its notability. Right now these sources dont exist. Hence it is WP:TOOSOON to create such an article. Venkat TL (talk) 10:32, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

• Comment: a few minutes on Google news, here's what I can find on Sikkim's election, the smallest state, in 2024.

References

Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 10:58, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Are these sources claiming that elections "Will be" held in 2024 or are they reporting about preparations for the next elections. There is a difference and I hope you can appreciate the difference. Wikipedia is not a place to add speculatory content from newspapers. see WP:SPECULATION and WP:NOTNEWS Venkat TL (talk) 11:31, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

(e/c) None of the state elections are certain to happen in 2024. All of them may be called early, hence why the titles are Next Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, Next Odisha Legislative Assembly election, Next Arunachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly election etc. Therefore the article is a massive WP:CRYSTAL violation. As Venkat says, once you remove speculation from the article, there is nothing left to say other than 'Elections may be held in India in 2024'. Number 57 11:34, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

The sources themselves discuss the elections of 2024. They do not generally speak of possible elections in 2024. Yes, it is possible that every single one of these elections may not happen in 2024. It's possible the 2024 US presidential election might not happen in 2024. It's possible the world will end tomorrow. The *sources* speak of the 2024 elections, that's what matters. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 12:13, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

• Comment Not a word of "possible" for Mahrashtra.

References

Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 12:30, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Again these sources are quoting "intentions" of respective leaders and spokespersons to form an alliance or to fight an alliance. There is no joint statement confirming such an alliance. These sources do not confirm that an alliance has been formed, but merely inform the readers about such intentions from these politicians. Venkat TL (talk) 12:41, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

And every one of any "confirmed" alliance can be broken any day up to, on and after an election. None of those points are germane to the issue, the only question that matters is whether there are sources discussing the 2024 elections? Feel free to add the word, "expected" to the article, the answer is an irrefutable "yes", there are reliable sources discussing the expected 2024 elections. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 12:55, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

The article should make it clear to the reader that this is speculatory and These are intentions and talks of alliance, not confirmed alliance. The article misleads the reader into believing the alliance already exists for the upcoming election. That in my opinion is wrong and misleading. Things may change in future is not enough reason to give misleading and speculatory information right now. People should read newspapers for such speculations where they discuss it in detail and give the necessary clarifications. I am not going to reply on the below examples from AP, as my replies are the same. At this point your posting of such links is like trolling this discussion. Venkat TL (talk) 13:03, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Please AGF. I'm not interested in promoting the machinations of mainstream Indian political parties in 2024. I'm responding to the denial above of reliable sourcing regarding the 2024 elections. Whether or not the elections will be called early, or postponed, or never held, there is a large body of sources discussing state and national elections in India in 2024. That is the only question that matters for this AfD. Whether this is speculative or nor is irrelevant, discussing tomorrow's weather, or any future event, is inherently speculative, but if there are reliable sources for it and it meets the GNG then we can have an article (eg Human mission to Mars. It's not our job to speculate on whether or not the elections will occur, it's our job to determine whether or not there are sources discussing the events the article is intended to describe. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 13:17, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

• Comment Not a word of "possible" for AP.

References

Regards,--Goldsztajn (talk) 12:55, 27 November 2021 (UTC)

Note for the closing admin, that I have reviewed these sources and they are speculatory. The notability criteria is not met yet. Same reason as above set of links. Venkat TL (talk) 16:58, 30 November 2021 (UTC)

• Delete: 'These elections will be held in 2024', it is not decided yet. India has a parliamentary system, elections can be held ahead of time. This page should be deleted for now. Nitesh003(TALK) 15:38, 30 November 2021 (UTC)

By the same token, it has not been decided they will not occur in 2024. This is about sources, not predictions. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 03:25, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

• Comment: WP:CHRYSTAL: "Individual scheduled or expected future events should be included only if the event is notable and almost certain to take place." (emphasis added) That is the bar we need to discuss; ie are these events that are "almost certain to take place." Any how do we establish that? With reliable sources about the future event. Note the emphasis of FUTUREEVENT is not whether or not the event will take place, but the degree of certainty as *all* sources about *any* future event will contain degrees of speculation. As far as I can see, the delete argument boils down to a claim that as there is no ECI announcement or gazette for an election in 2024, there should not an article. There's two problems with this: Even ECI scheduled elections have had to be postponed and moved to another year (eg. Karnataka's scheduled 2020 gram panchayat elections were moved to 2021). Second, we're discussing the world's largest democracy ... AFAIA one has to go back four decades to the Emergency to find a year where no election occurred in India; given the present, existing sourcing, the notion that there will be no state, local or by-elections in India in 2024 is highly improbable, ie it is reasonable to assume that it is almost certain there will be elections (plural) in India in 2024. This is not an argument suggesting that we should have articles for 2050 etc, this is an argument based on sources and commonsense: are editors, despite extensive sourcing discussing the expected elections of 2024, so convinced that it is more likely (more certain) that no elections other than the general election will occur in 2024? Why should the entire article's existence hinge on the existence of a single source, which remains subject to change no less than any other? Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 08:42, 1 December 2021 (UTC)
  • No-one is disputing the elections will take place at some point. The whole issue is that there is zero certainty of which elections will take place in India in 2024 at present, meaning the article has no useful content if properly sourced and written. You start your opposition to deletion by citing 2024 United States presidential election, but that election is legally mandated to occur in 2024; this is not the case for elections in India, hence why this article is currently useless. Number 57 09:07, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

By that logic then there's no problem with creating the 3048 US Presidential election. The reason we would *not* create that article is because there is no sourcing. Asserting a legal mandate as the sole criterion is arbitrary and it's not based in policy to state that despite sourcing we should not have an article about upcoming almost certain events which are unmistakably notable. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 11:48, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

There's 16 sources covering 3 states mentioned in the article referenced here; there's 11 quotes explicitly discussing the 2024 elections in two states. The assertion that there is "zero certainty" regarding where elections will be in India in 2024 is contradicted by these sources; to reiterate, on the basis of policy, the question is not whether or not the elections will occur (which can never actually be determined until after the event), but the likelihood of the event. That is the standard set by "almost certain". The sources I've presented indicate the elections are regarded as occuring in 2024 ie with almost certainty; in supporting delete, it would seem necessary to demonstrates otherwise with sourcing that indicates, for example, that the elections in AP or Maharashtra in 2024 are not almost certain. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 13:09, 1 December 2021 (UTC)

Relisted to generate a more thorough discussion and clearer consensus.
Please add new comments below this notice. Thanks, Sandstein 14:13, 3 December 2021 (UTC)

• Delete. Too soon and unclear that any elections will be held unlike say, the US, where the constitution requires an election. QuiteUnusual (talk) 14:16, 3 December 2021 (UTC)

What sourcing indicates that it is unclear that all seven state elections and a general election will not be held in 2024? Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 21:13, 6 December 2021 (UTC)

Relisted to generate a more thorough discussion and clearer consensus.
Please add new comments below this notice. Thanks, —⁠ScottyWong⁠— 21:07, 12 December 2021 (UTC)

• Keep no reason to delete this - while the date of elections are still uncertain, there's enough certainty to have this page. SportingFlyer T·C 18:22, 13 December 2021 (UTC)
  • There is no certainty at all at this point in time, hence why none of the articles have 2024 in the title. It's a clear WP:CRYSTAL violation. If the article were to be cleaned up enough to remove the speculation tags, it would have no content. Number 57 23:52, 14 December 2021 (UTC)
    • Perhaps I am misunderstanding your point, but in the 16 articles cited above, 9 have 2024 in the title and 6 actually have "2024 elections/polls" (5 in English, 1 in Hindi). I genuinely cannot see how the 16 sources above provide no content for the article; there is nothing speculative *on our part* about political parties announcing strategies for an upcoming expected election. Given that there is sourcing discussing the *almost certain* 2024 polls, it's incumbent on those arguing delete to present sources that indicate the 2024 elections are not almost certain; CRYSTAL establishes thresholds for allowable articles which cover future events, the nomination and the delete arguments focus only on the article being about future events, which per se is not a failure of CRYSTAL. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 23:59, 15 December 2021 (UTC)
      • You are misunderstanding. I am referring to Next Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly election etc. And regarding WP:CRYSTAL, there is no issue with having articles on future elections like 2024 United States presidential election where that election is legally required to happen on a certain date. However, for countries without a legal requirement, we use titles like Next United Kingdom general election. 2024 elections in India is a CRYSTAL violation because no elections are currently scheduled for that year. I'm failing to see what part of this concept is so hard to understand. Number 57 11:43, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
        • I get that, but I still don't think deleting this makes sense - it's a container page, not about an individual election, which would create a strange policy that pages for countries with fixed election dates are fine because they're reasonably certain to occur, but we lose information about the next elections of countries without fixed election dates because we're interpreting WP:CRYSTAL too strictly even though they are just as reasonably certain to occur. The goal here is to not lose encyclopaedic information. Deleting would do that. SportingFlyer T·C 12:47, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
          • It's a container page that currently has no valid content. Again, I would have zero problems with this page if there were any elections confirmed for 2024, but there aren't. Number 57 12:50, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
            • And I don't think the dates need to be specifically confirmed in order to include the content on the page, as these will almost certainly take place in 2024. If this was the 2028 page I'd agree with you. SportingFlyer T·C 16:08, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
• Keep I appreciate both sides of the debate presented above. While the state legislature elections can be called at any time, they are on regular cycle and they usually follow that cycle. We have reliable sources that are presuming these elections will occur in 2024. I think that is sufficient to support this article's existence, even though there is the possibility that these elections will be called earlier. Bondegezou (talk) 13:00, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
• Redirect - to the Elections in India article. GoodDay (talk) 15:47, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
• Delete This seems pretty clear cut to me from a common sense point of view - the article says that for every single election that it has listed, the date is 'tentative', and in the very first line it says that the elections are 'speculated'. For me, that seems in obvious contradiction to WP:CRYSTAL. Perhaps more importantly, this page has little actual content; at the moment it functions only as a list of 'Next election' articles. Per WP:TOOSOON, it would probably be more sensible to delete this now and resurrect it nearer the time. Gazamp (talk) 22:07, 16 December 2021 (UTC)
  • Comment But I think that's just poor wording in the article. These are elections that usually occur after a set number of years since the last election, but occasionally are called earlier. Look at the election articles and surf back through past elections to see the pattern. They're not absolutely definite for 2024, but these aren't wild guesses: these are the expected dates and RS treat them as such. Bondegezou (talk) 18:47, 17 December 2021 (UTC)
• Comment Have made a clean up of the article (including removal of "speculated" which was backed by no sourcing whatsoever), added sources, including from GoI Panchayati Raj Ministry which provides dates for elections due in 2024. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 10:11, 19 December 2021 (UTC)
• Keep. WP:CRYSTAL reads, "...almost certain to take place." Is there any argument that there will be no elections in India during 2024? Ifnord (talk) 18:47, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

The sources needed for this article wont be available until 2023. Per WP:V this cannot be kept unsourced. Venkat TL (talk) 18:55, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

Devil's advocate, which section of WP:V states that an article about a series of events that no one has disputed will happen, requires removal because the sources, which no one disputes will be forthcoming, are not currently available? Ifnord (talk) 19:24, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

The problem is that this article is claiming ALL of those WILL be coming in 2024. Unlike the US system, nothing is preordained by law in India. This is an encyclopedia, not an Almanac FFS. Venkat TL (talk) 20:33, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

This argument has been refuted; the sources speak of the 2024 elections, the appropriate response to that refutation would be sourcing indicating the 2024 elections are not likely or are uncertain. As far as I can tell, though, there are none to that effect. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 23:37, 20 December 2021 (UTC)

• Comment I'm not allowed to vote, but what about moving it to draft space to be worked on while more information comes out, and put it back into article space in mid-late 2023? --67.183.136.85 (talk) 20:03, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

  @67.183.136.85 you are allowed to vote. I am not opposed to this being draftified. In fact it should not have been created in the mainspace. Venkat TL (talk) 20:15, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

  @Venkat TL: I though IPs aren't allowed to vote. --67.183.136.85 (talk) 00:23, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

• Comment While I was going to close this, it's somewhat difficult to determine a clear consensus, but there also seems to be a relatively obvious solution to satisfy all sides that I don't see having been brought up. Why not, for now, move the article to the title "Upcoming elections in India", and then move it to the dated title once it is actually confirmed when those elections will be held? At that time, a new "Upcoming elections..." article can be created; rinse and repeat as necessary. I don't think there is any substantial doubt that there will be upcoming elections in India at some point, and certainly that future election has sufficient coverage to be notable, so why not just make sure the title accurately reflects their status? Seraphimblade ^{Talk to me} 22:13, 22 December 2021 (UTC)
  • As there are already articles for 2022 elections in India and 2023 elections in India, would the title of the suggested article create rather a lot of overlap? Number 57 22:27, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

    @Seraphimblade thanks for the great suggestion. I agree with the idea of merging all the future years into an article "Upcoming elections in India". @Number 57 He is asking to merge the 22 and 23 articles also till the time their schedules are released. Venkat TL (talk) 06:33, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

    • I'm not sure that's exactly what I had in mind. I was more thinking that the "Upcoming elections" article could be a summary style article which touches on all upcoming elections in India, both the ones with firmly scheduled dates and the ones which it is known will happen but not yet exactly when. As an example, and to get out of the minutiae of what's true today, imagine we're in the year 2030. There are some Indian elections scheduled firmly for 2031 and 2032, and some which, while they will definitely happen, are not firmly scheduled yet. In that case, we would have articles on 2031 Elections in India and 2032 Elections in India, since there's something definite to put there. The "Upcoming elections" article will touch on those elections as well, since they are upcoming elections, and link to those articles for more detail. It will also cover elections that are essentially certain to happen and confirmed as such by reliable sources, but are not yet firmly scheduled. Once the election actually happens, it will be removed from the "Upcoming" article, and then just be covered in the appropriate article for that year. I hope that's clear? Seraphimblade ^{Talk to me} 06:44, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

• Keep per the arguments above. Parliamentary politics notwithstanding, we should go with what reliable sources in India say, which clearly indicates a widespread assumption that in the very least Lok Sabha elections will occur in 2024. See e.g. "16 state polls to turn up heat before 2024 race" in the Economic Times, "'Khela Hobe' in 2024; BJP will be defeated across India: Mamata Banerjee" in the Hindustan Times, and others. Even if those elections don't occur, it is clear that at present mass media and politicians are operating under the view that they will. Overriding that broad apparent consensus based on the idea that it is somehow "unclear" that the elections will be held seems presumptuous. This doesn't trigger a slippery slope to e.g. 203* Elections in India because there simply isn't the widespread coverage of those hypothetical elections that there is for 2024. WhinyTheYounger (WtY)(talk, contribs) 16:10, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

  @WhinyTheYounger You are talking about a different article which is at the location Next Indian general election This is a different one. Please read the discussion above. Venkat TL (talk) 16:26, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

  • @Venkat TL: One finds similar articles about state-level elections very quickly, as well (e.g. for Andhra Pradesh here and here, in addition to the sources already cited above). So it seems appropriate to have an article that catalogues the body of elections both national and sub-national that are widely anticipated to occur in that year. Yes, motions of confidence can be lost and snap elections held before those dates, but that is not something that any reliable media seems to indicate is a serious consideration for most of these elections. WhinyTheYounger (WtY)(talk, contribs) 16:37, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

    Speaking for myself, You see there is no concern if you cover these speculations at one place, as Seraphimblade suggested. The 'Almanac writers' on Wikipedia have already created every possible "NEXT XYZ State election page" along with "NEXT XYZ General Election". They did not stop there. They created all the year pages too. Recently 2025, 2026 was deleted. There is no end to stupidity. Venkat TL (talk) 16:56, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

I appreciate that concern, but I disagree that it's particularly risky. Again, the bright line is fairly straightforward: politicians and media in India and its relevant states are not really talking about elections in 2029, or 2034, etc., and thus there is little coverage of those elections. But there is plenty of coverage of the 2024 elections at local and national levels, not just as events themselves, but also related to the strategies and opinions of involved political figures and parties, which is naturally of concern for an encyclopedia. WhinyTheYounger (WtY)(talk, contribs) 17:09, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

There is no bright line. It is only in your mind. The almanac fans dont agree with your bright lines. By promoting gossiping and speculations on wikipedia you are treading into the WP:NOTNEWS territory. Venkat TL (talk) 17:12, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

The bright line, again, is derived from Wikipedia guidelines: whether there is WP:SIGCOV for the topic as such. It is not gossip and speculation, but the thoughts and opinions of relevant political figures on the presumed 2024 elections as relayed by reliable sources. That sort of coverage does not exist for e.g. 2029 Elections in India, and therefore it would be appropriate to delete an article to that effect. WhinyTheYounger (WtY)(talk, contribs) 23:54, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

Furthermore, there is no floodgates problem here. The specific circumstances of this case make it inapplicable to others. At this time, there are multiple reliable sources speaking of the 2024 elections, including an official government source speaking of elections due in 2024. There are no sources presented which indicate in any way why there should be a presumption that there will not be elections in 2024, stating as such *without sources* is speculative. Regards, --Goldsztajn (talk) 00:22, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

• Keep: As the article's sources appear to confidently refer to 2024 elections at the national, legislative assembly, and Panchayati raj levels, I see no reason to dismiss an article on 2024 elections in India as undocumented speculation. WP:CRYSTAL says "A schedule of future events may be appropriate if it can be verified." I think the coverage by the article's sources meets this threshold. HenryMP02 ^TALK 06:53, 24 December 2021 (UTC)
  • The events themselves can be verified – hence why we have articles on them like Next Indian general election. What cannot be verified, and why this article needs to be deleted, is that any of them will be held in 2024. Number 57 14:09, 24 December 2021 (UTC)
    • The only way we verify events is through reliable sources. It would be inappropriate, for example, to write of the 2024 United States presidential elections just citing the Constitution; we do so because there are reliable sources that speak to that election. While it is theoretically possible that every single election forecasted for India in 2024 does not occur (just as it is theoretically possible that the 2024 election for the president in the United sStates does not occur), an overwhelming body of reliable sources suggest otherwise, even accounting for the less predictable nature of parliamentary systems. WhinyTheYounger (WtY)(talk, contribs) 14:53, 24 December 2021 (UTC)
      • I don't know what is so hard to understand about this. The US presidential election is a regularly scheduled election with a certain date. None of these elections are. There is a clear difference. Number 57 16:31, 24 December 2021 (UTC)
• Keep. India holds special elections whenever a member of any the the legislatures dies or resigns. Counting the elections in the states, there are over 1000 seats It is outside the bounds of rational probability that none of them will die in any given year. DGG ( talk ) 16:58, 24 December 2021 (UTC)
  • There will almost certainly be some elections in India in 2024. The issue is that currently we do not know which ones, so there is no useful content for the article at this point in time. Number 57 17:40, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

The above discussion is preserved as an archive of the debate. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review). No further edits should be made to this page.