User:Nxsa/sandbox/Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
| Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS) | |
| Formed | September 26, 2015 |
|---|---|
| Dissipated | October 10, 2015 |
| (Remnant low after October 9) | |
| Duration | 1 week and six days |
| Highest winds | 1-minute sustained: 195 mph (315 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 890 mbar (hPa); 26.28 inHg (Lowest recorded in the United States, Third-lowest recorded in the Atlantic) |
| Fatalities | 2,309 dead, 734 injured and 364 missing |
| Damage | $194.8 billion (2015 USD) (Costliest Atlantic hurricane on record) |
| Areas affected | Cuba, Florida, Southeastern United States, East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada |
| Part of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season | |
Hurricane Joaquin was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, in terms of wind speed, beating Hurricane Allen from the 1980 Atlantic hurricane season. Joaquin had an atmospheric pressure of 890 mbar (hPa; 26.28 inHg), becoming the third-most intense tropical cyclone on record in terms of barometric pressure, beating the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, though still behind Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Wilma. Joaquin broke the record for the most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in terms of pressure and wind speed, once again beating the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Dorian respectively. In Joaquin's wake, the hurricane became the costliest tropical cyclone on record, beating Hurricane Katrina, with an extremely high damage total of $194.803 billion (2015 USD), along with a death toll of 2,309, most of which came from the state of Florida and from states along the East Coast of the United States, making it one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean since Hurricane Stan. Joaquin became the strongest hurricane to make landfall on Florida since Hurricane Charley back in the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, and the most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall on the contiguous United States since Katrina the year before.
The tenth tropical storm and the ninth hurricane of the season, Joaquin originated from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on September 14. The wave would then moved through the Atlantic, moving north of Hispaniola and Cuba, before developing into a tropical depression on September 26 in the Gulf of Mexico. The depression then strengthened into a tropical storm, gaining the name Joaquin the same day. Joaquin, then rapidly intensified on September 28 and 29, before peaking as a strong Category 5 hurricane on September 30, before making landfall north of Fort Myers soon after. Joaquin then re-entered the Atlantic as it stalled along the East Coast, bringing high surf and rain which caused at least a billion in damage. East of North Carolina, Joaquin made a tight loop as it peaked as a mid-Category 2 hurricane. Joaquin then moved northeast as it then degenerated into a remnant low on October 9 over Nova Scotia, marking the end of Joaquin's trek after exactly one week and six days.
Joaquin left at least 90% of Florida without power for at least three weeks in the hurricane's wake, along with significant storm surge inundating up to 88% of buildings on the western Florida coast. Most of the Tampa Bay area was left underwater for more than a week. It is possible that Joaquin could have been stronger than it is officially, as there was no recon leading up to landfall, as two NOAA aircrafts were struck by intense lightning within the hurricane as they were investigating Joaquin's strength. It was noted in Joaquin's TCR, that the hurricane could've been as strong as Wilma or even stronger, potentially becoming the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, but there is little to no evidence to back this. Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center was applauded for their forecasts in advance of Joaquin's landfall. Even though there were mandatory evacuations, there was too much traffic to get out of the state, forcing many to remain behind and prepare, explaining the high fatality count. In addition to the thousands of deaths, up to 364 remained missing as of October 28, along with a total of 734 people being injured.
After Joaquin's landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm then stalled along the East Coast of the United States, along with reaching a total of 4 peak intensities, two of them as a Category 2 hurricane and the other two as a Category 1 hurricane. As it stalled, Joaquin brought heavy rain, winds and storm surge, though it was not as much as in Florida. While Joaquin made a loop east of North Carolina, the storm brought high surf to the coast, causing severe damage and carrying four people out-to-sea. All of their bodies were found a week later, within 4 miles of each other. Due to Joaquin's stall along the coast, it quickly became one of the longest-lived Atlantic hurricanes on record, and the longest-lived storm since Hurricane Nadine back in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. As Joaquin became a remnant low, the storm brought light rain and winds to Atlantic Canada. It was, again, possible that Joaquin could've reached its second-strongest peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane east of the Carolinas, as recon found a quickly weakening Category 2 hurricane which most likely had winds of 110-115 mph, hence its fifth peak being 110 mph (175 km/h), along with a barometric pressure of 973 mbar (hPa; 28.73 inHg). Due to recon's late arrival however, it is not possible to back up this evidence.
Meteorological synopsis[edit]
Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
Unknown
Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depressionOn September 14, a small tropical wave exited the coast of Africa, and had high model support for the storm's development. The National Hurricane Center quickly took note of this, and the system was marked for potential tropical development near the Greater Antilles. As the system moved west, it fluctuated in appearance as dry air and moderate wind shear kept disrupting the storm's development. The NHC kept the storm at a medium percent chance for development in the next five days, until it reached the Lesser Antilles where the chances began to go down, as it was expected to make landfall on Hispaniola and dissipate quickly. However, the storm moved northeast of the country, and development chances soon began to rise again as the wave was headed for extremely favorable conditions, including a high ocean content, low wind shear and no dry air in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the system grazed the northern coast of Hispaniola, it was evident that the low-level circulation was very close to being fully developed. As a result, the system was finally designated as an invest, and was given the number 94L by the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System on September 24. The system's appearance began to rapidly improve, and by 0600 UTC on September 26, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, just north of Varadero in Cuba.
With winds of 30 mph (55 km/h), Ten began to gradually intensify as its appearance still continued to become well-defined. At around 1700 UTC that same day, a NOAA recon flight was sent out to investigate Ten to see if the system had winds to become a tropical storm. An hour later, recon found winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) near the low-level circulation. This prompted the NHC to upgrade Ten to a tropical storm, and give it the name Joaquin, which was being used for the first time after it replaced Hurricane Juan back in 2003. Joaquin then moved more slowly as it almost reached the warm waters, which were capable of rapidly intensifying a tropical cyclone. Due to a high-pressure system over Texas, the storm, as expected, was beginning to be pushed northeast as it intensified into a hurricane with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h). Joaquin, under radar, was started to develop an eyewall, signifying that an eye would also appear soon. At the same time, Joaquin began to rapidly intensify as it moved over the high ocean content. Joaquin continued to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 2 hurricane on September 28 at around 1800 UTC, reaching winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) with a central pressure of 970 mbar.
NOAA recon flights reported a rapidly intensifying hurricane east of Florida and early on September 29, Category 3 hurricane winds were recorded, with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). Simultaneously, Joaquin finally cleared its eye as the storm continued to grow in size, along with its eye growing in size. Due to a NOAA recon flight malfunction, it was mistaken that Joaquin began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. However, as the storm continued intensifying, even becoming a Category 4 hurricane six hours after Category 3 winds were recorded, talks of an EWRC were quickly dropped as it was clear that no EWRC was happening any time soon. In a special advisory, Joaquin had gained sustained winds of 140 mph (260 km/h), still on September 29 as it gradually began to accelerate in speed. With this, the NHC forecasted the hurricane to gain winds of 190 mph (310 km/h) just before making landfall on Florida, making it the strongest forecast to ever be put out by the National Hurricane Center. In the discussion, it was noted that Joaquin reaching winds of 205 mph was possible, though not as likely. As another NOAA recon flight entered Joaquin's eyewall, lightning struck the plane, causing malfunctions and subsequently, prompting the flight to go back to Louisiana.
Soon after, another flight was sent out into Hurricane Joaquin, and again, was struck by lightning. These two incidents prompted the NHC to only use appearance to decide the storm's intensity. At the same time, workers at the NHC themselves had to be evacuated due to potential catastrophic damage to the building. Advisories were then handed to the Weather Prediction Center early on September 30, just as Joaquin reached its strongest. Due to no recon data as the storm neared the coast of Florida, Joaquin's peak intensity, was deemed to be 195 mph (315 km/h), along with a central atmospheric pressure of 890 mbar. The pressure of the storm was determined, after a buoy in the northern eyewall recorded a pressure of 893 mbar. By 0500 UTC that same day, Joaquin made landfall over Port Charlotte, Florida, just north of Fort Myers. Joaquin then began to weaken quickly, already having winds of 140 mph by 0600 UTC that day. The storm weakened some more, having Category 3 hurricane winds over Kissimmee Prairie Preserve State Park by 1200 UTC. Joaquin then finally moved off the state of Florida by 1700 UTC, having winds of 90 mph (150 km/h), with an unusually low pressure of 970 mbar.
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