Talk:Myanmar civil war (2021–present)/Archive 2

AH1 and inclusion of the PNA on the map

Multiple sources I've found all insinuate that the Asia Highway 1 (or the Myawaddy-Karkareik Highway, as it is called in the article) is under control of the Tatmadaw, not Karen resistance. Areas around the highway have been captured, and the highway is under almost complete fire control by rebels, but it has not been captured.

Also, should the Pa-O National Army be included on the map? They and their political wing, the Pa-O National Organisation, do de jure control the Pa-O Self-Administered Zone. They are allied with the junta, and junta forces operate within the Pa'O SAZ, but I feel they should be included on the map considering they do control those areas. Also, where's the evidence that Karenni forces, PDF's, and the SSPP operate with the Pa'O SAZ? The map shows areas of the Pa'O SAZ under control of these groups. Also, the Pa-O National Liberation Army controls areas in the Pa'O SAZ (See section: "Inclusion of Zomi Revolutionary Army and outdated map." for more details.) IdioticAnarchist (talk) 01:53, 10 March 2024 (UTC)

Agreed on including PNA- I think Shan south generally is an area that Thomas van Linge (the base source of the map) has had some egregious omissions and errors already.

Re: AH1-Karen, I think the map is showing this from the result of the Battle of Kawkareik and reinforced later in late 2023; commerce as far I'm aware anecdotally and professionally (outside of wiki and RS) relies on paying tariffs to the KNU to get from Myawaddy to Kawkareik. I'd appreciate some sources that the highway is completely under the control, Remember that the map does not really show captures of territory- since that's not the nature of the war; so fire control and disruptions a la Chin would still show KNU territory taking parts of the road. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 03:11, 10 March 2024 (UTC)

Zomi Revolutionary Army

Several sources I've found state that the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA) declared support for resistance against the junta sometime in April 2021:

- https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/india-based-zomi-armed-group-raids-chin-resistance-camps-in-northwestern-myanmar/

- https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/zomi-revolutionary-army-attacks-anti-regime-group-in-tedim/

But also, several sources I've found state that the ZRA has met with junta officials, the junta is supplying the ZRA with weapons in return for them attacking Chin resistance.

- https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/india-needs-to-start-taking-the-chin-resistance-more-seriously/

- https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/zra-attacked-in-tedim-after-alleged-meeting-with-junta-officials/

So, I think that early in the civil war, the ZRA was on the side of the resistance, but began supporting the junta sometime in September or December 2021 onwards. Should this be included in the article? IdioticAnarchist (talk) 00:19, 11 March 2024 (UTC)

Your sources, including the first two, suggest they attacked anti-junta groups not that they initially were against the junta. Without WP:OR, we can't prioritize declarations over actions, especially without any sources confirming a switch before September 2021. I quite like calling them "Unallied" or "non-alligned".

Regarding the infobox, the the purpose of the infobox is for summarization, and new information should be in the article. you covered ZRA well with your changes and PLAM is discussed in the article. However, adding numerous less relevant groups may confuse the reader. For example, we don't list all distinct PDF factions (K-PDF, Kachin-PDF, MPDF, etc.) at least in this article. Deciding relevance may be subjective, so I've only removed the Nagaland group as they don't show up in the article. Let me know if you think we should remove any others for conciseness. Feel free to re-add Nagaland if you think they are important for the summary after adding whatever fighting they did to the article body text. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 00:57, 11 March 2024 (UTC)

After looking through ACLED date (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard) in Chin State, Mizoram, and Manipur shows that the ZRA has been launching attacks on anti-junta groups from as early as 22nd May, 2021.

"The Zomi Revolutionary Army attacked a group of young people who gathered to form the People's Defense Force. Both sides reportedly exchanged fire. The youth withdrew from the scene. Casualties unknown"

And the ZRA has regularly launched attacks on anti-junta forces ever since, even working with the junta to capture some CDF outposts. From what I can find the ZRA has never launched attacks on junta forces.

With Nagaland, I do agree with their omission from the infobox, as the only recent information concerning their activities in Myanmar have to do with infighting and (strangely) PLA-M infighting in Naga SAZ.

"Fighting broke out between the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Khaplang and National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Ang Mai. Three members of NSCN-Ang Mai, including a captain, died in the fighting." 7 September 2023. Kai San Lone village of Lahe township (Naga Self-Administered Zone, Sagaing region)

Also, I feel like the ACLED source could be immensely useful in mapping, as it shows the location of all news it gets. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 16:21, 11 March 2024 (UTC)

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong but the ACLED doesn't give me any more than just the country-level nvm found it- definitely can be useful EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 00:43, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

Asia Foundation Information

This amazing source by Asia Foundation (posted in 2016) shows Border Guard Forces and militias https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Militias-in-Myanmar.pdf IdioticAnarchist (talk) 19:15, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

SSPP or SSA-N

Although we've normally used the armed wings normally, I want to propose an exception for SSPP and RCSS since most sources refer to them as such rather than SSA-N and SSA-S given the confusing nature of both groups (traditionally adversaries of each other) using the term "Shan State Army". Thoughts? EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 22:43, 24 February 2024 (UTC)

I'd say that using SSPP/RCSS might be a good idea considering most sources (that I've found, at least) use those or SSPP/SSA and RCSS/SSA. What do the groups themselves call each other? IdioticAnarchist (talk) 02:28, 26 February 2024 (UTC)

This source https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/why-shan-states-formidable-armies-have-shunned-the-fight-against-myanmars-junta.htmlstates that neither armies use to term "Shan State Army - North/South" to describe themselves, and either just use "Shan State Army" or SSPP/RCSS. I'd say it would be helpful to change their names to SSPP/RCSS. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 15:16, 14 March 2024 (UTC)

KNLA and PDF control over the Ye-Thanbyuzayat highway in Mon, and PNLA presence in Maukmai and Kyethi Townships (Also, does anyone know how to update/make maps?)

According to this article itself, in "2023 guerrilla attacks", alongside this source https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/four-military-council-soldiers-arrested-during-knla-pdf-inspection-vehicles-ye-thanbyuzayat state that by late June 2023 KNLA and PDF soldiers took control over the portion of the National Highway 8 between Ye and Thanbyuzayat in Mon State. I have not found any sources debunking this claim, nor have I found sources saying that the highway was recaptured. This area of control is not shown on the map. On the topic of the map, does anyone know how to update it? I'm specifically on mobile, so I don't know if that effects whether I can or cannot make maps on Wikipedia. How does one make a Wikipedia map? (Also, outside of this the map is a month out of date).

Another thing, according to this source https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/shan-and-pa-o-armed-groups-clash-langkhur-district (and the article for the PNLA) the Pa-O National Liberation Army has at least a small presence in Maukmai and Kyethi Townships, and has clashed with RCSS/SSA forces in Wan Khieng and Hti Phet Nan, the former being in Kyethi Township.IdioticAnarchist (talk) 02:44, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

I can update the map but I prefer to verify all the sources and check on all the regions- so most of the time I need a free weekend day irl. I was planning on 2 weeks ago but things came up. Your list last time was helpful btw.

The actual editing usually requires using some vector software for this civil war map- I use Inkscape. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 03:03, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

Alright, I'll see if I can learn how to use a vector software. To be honest, it's quite a "pet peeve" of mine when maps are incorrect or not up-to-date, and sorry if I'm being annoying when I constantly ask if people can update it. Also, I'm happy to hear that my list was helpful! I don't really have anything better to do, so I've been planning on perhaps making another one soon.

One more thing that I'd consider pretty important: the area of control for the Ta'ang National Liberation Army is wrong. Many sources state that the TNLA captured the entirety of Namhsan and Mantong Townships (the townships which make up the Palaung Self-Administered Zone). Overlaying maps of the townships in Shan State to the war map shows that on the war map this control is not shown. The map shows that control over the townships is split between the TNLA and the KIA, which (to my knowledge) is false. Of course, it's something small that probably nobody would notice, but I'd consider it important. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 03:32, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

There have definitely been issues between the TNLA and KIA stemming from KIA control of areas TNLA considers theirs and TNLA control of areas the KIA considers theirs post 1027. Sources are very quick and loose about what the whole township means, since I've also seen in editing this a source that first said the township was captured, only to later report the last outpost of the township being captured a week later. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 10:38, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

Hopefully, anyone could create a better Infobox LNDP flag.

File:Infobox LNDP flag(1).jpg This is the current Infobox LNDP flag, created by me. This work is poor(It's even in JPG format). I hope someone can create a better Infobox LNDP flag than me. SKBNK (talk) 01:56, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

Consolidation

I'm thinking one way to get the length of the article down would be to take all the mentions of junta war crimes and transfer them into the war crimes during the Myanmar civil war (2021–present) child article, leaving summaries in this article in the "Humanitarian impact and war crimes" section as well as the main timeline part where necessary for particularly infamous or deadly ones. For an example of how this would look in practice, see the article Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thoughts? HappyWith (talk) 15:26, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

Should specific Border Guard Forces be included on the Infobox?

Several BGF's have thousands of soldiers (Examples: DKBA: 3,900-6,000 soldiers; KDA: 1,500-2,600 soldiers.), which is already larger than several of the resistance groups already on the infobox. While the BGF's have admittedly not been a big force in the current phase of the civil war, they are still active and have played a large part in past phases of the war. I made a list of BGF's on the BGF's article, if that helps any. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 06:17, 22 March 2024 (UTC)

Well, some PDFs have thousands of soldiers too but we don't list them. I think this is fine to summarize EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 17:00, 22 March 2024 (UTC)

Amazing source for rural maps, and questions about "Special regions"

For 1. I found an amazing source for stuff like Towns, Village Tracts, and Constituencies. https://geonode.themimu.info/layers/?limit=100&offset=0

For 2. Many articles about groups in Myanmar (specifically "Ceasefires in Myanmar") mention "Special Regions" in states like Shan, Kachin, and Karenni. I can find very little information about many of these (The most I can find is about Shan SR-1 (Kokang), Shan SR-2 (Wa), and Shan SR-4 (Mongla).) Could someone possibly make a map or list of these Special Regions? Possibly an article about these Special Regions? From my little research, there have been around a dozen or so. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 22:44, 22 March 2024 (UTC)

The Special Regions are historical designations and some sources and countries (particularly China) still use those to refer to the EAO-controlled areas. For example, SR-1 historically preceded the Kokang SAZ, but China used it around 1027 to refer to the MNDAA as opposed to the junta-appointed Kokang SAZ. There is no geographic documentation or consistency to how SRs are actually applied post 2008. SR-2 is Wa State North (and sometimes south too), SR-4 is the areas controlled by the NDAA wherever they area, etc. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 01:13, 23 March 2024 (UTC)

Spillover section

Would it be useful to create a separate "spillover" section for the repeated cross-border attacks into Bangladesh and other countries? I think it might be more useful than having each incident spread out throughout the chronology (and also partially duplicated in the Foreign involvement#Bangladesh section), but I'm not sure. Very open to feedback on this one. HappyWith (talk) 09:28, 19 March 2024 (UTC)

I agree the duplication is unnecessary. However, some spillovers, like brief incidents with significance but minimal coverage might be better in context. For instance, the bomb landing in China during Laiza as part of that battle or the 2022 jet incursion into Thailand as part of criticism on Thailand's noninterference. The Bangladesh and Indian spillovers in 2023/4 might merit their own section, but I'm unsure if they should be standalone or subsections within the relevant chronology part. The only thing that would make clear sense is the two separate rounds of Bangladesh spillover from 2022 and 2024 could be better together. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 13:28, 19 March 2024 (UTC)

Update: An editor has created a separate article for this topic at Spillover of the Myanmar civil war (2021–present). HappyWith (talk) 10:02, 4 April 2024 (UTC)

Lack of MNLA control around Kawt Bein

The recent capture of the Kawt Bein Police Station by New Mon State Party (Anti-Dictatorship) forces an allies kinda shows that the MNLA control of the Kawt Bein area on the map is wrong. While its technically not wrong now (as the MNLA and NMSP-AD is shown as the same colour on the map), I feel like a distinction is needed. Possibly the NMSP-AD could be shown in a darker shade of pink? IdioticAnarchist (talk) 15:21, 28 March 2024 (UTC)

ALA Involvement

Is there any source or date for the shooting of a Rohingya man by members of the Arakan Liberation Party/Army in Sittwe? I know that The Irrawaddy talks about it, but they give no sources or dates for the event (only saying "a while ago"). The closest thing I can find is the killing of a Rohingya girl by the ALA (and ALA denial of the event) on the ACLED Dashboard for 12 March. Saying "On an unspecified date" just sounds wrong. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 15:00, 29 March 2024 (UTC)

I'm going to take it off (thought leaving in timeline with the tag) since the event itself isn't major enough and would be something I might trim anyways. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 19:51, 30 March 2024 (UTC)

MNDAA presence southeast of Lashio (+SSPP)

According to several sources describing the recent clashes between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the junta state that fighting occurred "southeast of Lashio", near Kone Nyaung, Long Mun, and Ping Kaing. The only location I could find, Long Mun, is only around 18 miles (30km) east of Lashio. This means that the MNDAA has a presence east of Lashio, which is not shown on the map. The location of this fighting is shown on the map to have a NUG/PDF presence, not the MNDAA, which is wrong. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/fighting-erupts-in-myanmars-northern-shan-state-despite-china-brokered-ceasefire.html https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/hostilities-resume-between-myanmar-military-and-mndaa/

Secondly, Mizzima reported recent clashes between the Shan State Progress Party and the MNDAA in Hseni Township, in the Namsalat and Seiau village tracts (which I cannot find a map of). Mizzima further states that the SSPP has had a presence in Hseni for a long time, and has camps within the township. I'd consider this also notable enough to add to the map. https://eng.mizzima.com/2024/03/30/8508 IdioticAnarchist (talk) 14:24, 30 March 2024 (UTC)

There is a Long Mun about 7 miles southeast of Lashio. For these small villages or Namsalat etc., you'll need to go through the MIMU Place code database. I agree with you from reading the sources more that MNDAA does control this area. But remember just because there is a clash, doesn't mean that territory is controlled or under their jurisdiction. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 20:35, 30 March 2024 (UTC)

"Operation 1027 in Rakhine State"

Is "Operation 1027 in Rakhine State" synonymous with the article Rakhine offensive (2023–present)? It seems to have a very similar scope. If so, I think we could get the article length down by just linking that article and summarizing it briefly here in an identically-named section. HappyWith (talk) 14:16, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

It is, and yeah I think we can trim it down a bit here EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 12:28, 4 April 2024 (UTC)

Theatres

Sort of a continuation of a previous discussion: I think we were on the right track by creating Anyar theatre and Chin theatre, but it's pretty awkward just having those without having articles for the other theatres, especially glaring now that we have navboxes for these articles. We should try to find every source that separates the conflict into theatres and find a consensus among them if possible. If I have time, I'll leave my research here and work on this myself, but it would definitely help to have assistance from someone who watches the conflict more closely. HappyWith (talk) 14:21, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

Research

Theatre organization by source

Source	Theatres	Notes
APRSA	Rakhine Kachin Shan Lower Myanmar Northwest Southeast Dry Zone	APRSA also groups these seven into three larger 'macrotheatres': "borderland resistance strongholds" (Kachin, Northwest), central Bamar-majority areas (Dry Zone, Lower Myanmar), and "non-aligned areas" (Shan, Rakhine)
Wilson Center	Dry Zone (as "Anyar") Chin Kachin Shan Karenni Karen
IISS's warscapes	Dry Zone Rakhine (also includes Paletwa Township of Chin State) Northeast Southeast Northwest Lower Myanmar

At the very least they all agree on - Dry Zone, Rakhine and Lower Myanmar (guessing Wilson center is just discounting urban guerillas and Bago as irrelevant idk why though). Chin theatre is pretty much Northwest- with a bit more broad scope if we go with Northwest. Northeast I think makes more sense than Shan especially as Southern shan State starts to develop its own new combatants as of 2024. Lastly, Karenni and Karen can be separate but they are often linked. I'd go with IISS's system since they do track it more closely vs. APRSA who seems to think Rakhine is non-alligned. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 12:33, 4 April 2024 (UTC)

The Karen National Army (Border Guard Forces)

According to some of the articles I've seen (https://karennews.org/2024/03/all-karen-border-guard-force-units-to-be-rebranded-as-the-karen-national-army/, https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/karen-bgf-to-rename-itself-karen-national-army/), they aren't fighing for the Junta anymore. Should we remove it and change the number of fighters accordingly? (~~20K less Junta personel, I think)

They also seem to already control land. However I am not very knowledgeable and would rather someone sees this and approves the changes or not.

Thanks! UnJapóLliure (talk) 17:13, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

It's unclear if the original estimate from USIP counts ex-EAO BGFs as part of the Tat since they arent really, so it'd require an updated source IMO EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 17:34, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

Should we still remove them from belligerents? UnJapóLliure (talk) 20:29, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

I don't think the Karen BGF are specifically in there EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 23:24, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

Wait until more information comes out Lukt64 (talk) 13:17, 4 April 2024 (UTC)

Should a new article be created for the new phase of the war?

Since October 27, 2023, the war has reached a new phase. Resistance has been more unified than any other time in the war (to my knowledge), resistance throughout the nation is regularly making gains (which has never really happened before, to my knowledge), and the war has just generally changed in favour of resistance and ethnic forces (again, never really happened before, to my knowledge). Should a new article be created to show this? Perhaps "Myanmar Civil War (2023-present)", or something else to reflect this new phase. More than 1/3rd of this article is dedicated to the past 7 months, despite the topic stretching over 3 years, and it seems a little strange (to me at least). This article can be labeled as "Myanmar Civil War (2021-2023)" or "Post-coup Conflict in Myanmar" (maybe something similar to the Somali Civil War articles (1978-1991, 1995-2006, 2006-2009, 2009–present) with there being a different article for the major phases of the war?) IdioticAnarchist (talk) 00:06, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

I looked through it again and on second thought; we need to do the WP:SPLIT the articles (e.g. 0307; Karen sieges; theatres etc.). I looked into if sources have the same sense you mentioned and found a good analysis from IISS and used that to regroup the articles. I couldn't find enough sources that talk about the civil war as being from 2023 onwards. Even if it is different in character, I wouldn't split unless sources start citing Operation 1027 a the cause of the renewed war instead of the 2021 coup.

Let me know what you think. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 00:48, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

Oh no, I wasn't saying that the civil war only began in 2023, I'm saying that a new phase of the war began in 2023. Like the Somali Civil War example, civil war was still constant throughout all of those years, but they're split into different articles due to being different in character. Other examples of different phases of wars being split into different articles include: Irish Civil War and its Guerrilla phase; the Iraq War and its start, 2003-2006 phase, and its 2006-2008 phase; the Syrian civil war and its 2nd and 3rd phases; the Afghan conflict and its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th and current phase; and several others.

All of these conflicts have one thing in common: they are split into different phases due to a big event which changes the "character" of the war. In Myanmar's case, Operation 1027 has drastically changed the war into a closely connected, resistance-leaning, major civil war compared to the small and disconnected insurgency it was before October. Of course, the 2021 coup also drastically intensified and changed the "character" of the war. These can be seen as 2 separate phases of the same war, and (as I'm suggesting) can be split into 2 different articles detailing these separate phases. Splitting the article into 2 can save room, make it less overcrowded, and make it easier and more coherent to read. Perhaps if it is split the 2 articles can be named "Post-coup Myanmar Civil War (2021-2023)" and "Post-Operation 1027 Myanmar Civil War (2023-present)" or something like that. (sorry if I included more examples than needed, or if they're bad examples). IdioticAnarchist (talk) 02:36, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

Ah yeah, I understand a bit more. But I think my original point still stands. Pretty much all sources still point to the coup when discussing the war in general rather than 1027. I think this may be WP:TOOSOON at least until more sources come out. To me at least it makes more sense to have detailed articles split about the various major offensives/campaigns post-1027 individually (e.g. Battle of Papun, Battle of Myawaddy, 0307, etc.). I don't think the increase in activity means they are more connected. The IISS source I added disagrees with you and discusses how the rebels are not coordinated. Yes, 1027 allowed Papun or Lweje to happen (for example), but mostly in terms of morale/momentum? I think we need more sources before we split chronologically. The same was we trimmed the 2021 section down significant by splitting by region, I think can keep the article manageable until we see more analysis on phases of the war.

The increase coverage is partly because of increased coverage in sources and editors being more interested- there's a large backlog of pre-1027 battles without articles in the template for example.

Besides, I think the changing factor is Laukkai not 1027- since that is still ongoing. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 03:44, 12 April 2024 (UTC)

Myawaddy confusion

Explaining edit on Myawaddy- From the sources cited plus the fact that there is no junta base on the border bridge itself; 275 withdrew after losing their post; there are two friendship bridges. First source talks about two surrenders, one in Thinganyinaung outside the city and another of the garrison, who go into Mae Sot. Another source in the Timeline discusses the junta chartering a flight to evacuate them out of Mae Sot. The second The final push irrawaddy article talks about how the KNLA/PDF were in the bridge on the 9th before attacking the remaining 275 garrison; which guards the western entrance to the city. The garrison surrendering and the positioning sounds like KNLA/PDF came from the north. Last source just added today talks about KNLA fighters not being in the streets; but in the context of junta airstrikes. The bridges are part of the town. As more comes out we will see, but I've also added this understanding of the timeline to Siege of Myawaddy. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 14:45, 12 April 2024 (UTC)