Post-election pendulum for the 2018 Victorian state election
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The Labor party won the 2018 state election by winning 55 of the 88 lower house seats. The coalition won 27 seats (Liberal 21 and Nationals 6) while the Greens and independents won 3 each.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]
Pendulum
[edit]The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
References
[edit]- ^ "State Election 2018 - Summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 11 December 2018.