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Retrospective scoring of elections[edit]

Lichtman retrospectively scored every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 while developing the keys. Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's re-election in 1904 is the only instance of all 13 keys being turned true; the elections of 1876 and 1960 had a record nine keys turned false against the incumbent party, in both instances the Republicans.

In all but two elections, the keys corresponded with the elected president. In 1876, despite nine keys having turned false against the incumbent Republican Party, Republican nominee Rutherford B. Hayes won the Electoral College by a single vote against Democratic nominee Samuel J. Tilden in a disputed election. In 1888, five false keys indicated Democratic President Grover Cleveland would win re-election, but he was defeated by Republican nominee Benjamin Harrison. In both instances, the keys accurately predicted the winner of the national popular vote.[1]

Retrospective scoring of United States presidential elections by Allan Lichtman
Year Incumbent party nominee Challenger party nominee Party mandate No primary contest Incumbent seeking re-election No third party Strong short-term economy Strong long-term economy Major policy change No social unrest No scandal No foreign or military failure Major foreign or military success Charismatic incumbent Uncharismatic challenger False keys Presumed winner Actual winner
1860 Stephen A. Douglas

(Democrat)

Abraham Lincoln

(Republican)

True False[a] False False[b] True True False False[c] True True False False True 7 Abraham Lincoln
1864 Abraham Lincoln

(Union/Republican)

George B. McClellan

(Democrat)

True True True True True False True[d] False[e] True True True[f] False[g] True 3 Abraham Lincoln
1868 Ulysses S. Grant

(Republican)[h]

Horatio Seymour

(Democrat)

True True False True True True True[i] False[j] True[k] True True[l] True True 2 Ulysses S. Grant
1872 Ulysses S. Grant

(Republican)

Horace Greeley

(Liberal/Democrat)

False True True True True True False False[m] True True True[n] True True 3 Ulysses S. Grant
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes

(Republican)

Samuel J. Tilden

(Democrat)

False False[o] False True False[p] False False True False[q] True False False True 9 Samuel J. Tilden Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 James A. Garfield

(Republican)

Winfield Scott Hancock

(Democrat)

True False[r] False True True True True[s] True True True False False True 4 James A. Garfield
1884 James G. Blaine

(Republican)

Grover Cleveland

(Democrat)

False False[t] False True False[u] False False True True True False True True 7 Grover Cleveland
1888 Grover Cleveland

(Democrat)

Benjamin Harrison

(Republican)

False True True True True True False False[v] True True False False True 5 Grover Cleveland Benjamin Harrison
1892 Benjamin Harrison

(Republican)

Grover Cleveland

(Democrat)

False False[w] True False[x] True True True[y] False[z] True True False False True 6 Grover Cleveland
1896 William Jennings Bryan

(Democrat)

William McKinley

(Republican)

False False[aa] False True False[ab] False False False[ac] True True False True True 8 William McKinley
1900 William McKinley

(Republican)

William Jennings Bryan

(Democrat)

False True True True True True True[ad] True True True True[ae] False False 3 William McKinley
1904 Theodore Roosevelt

(Republican)

Alton B. Parker

(Democrat)

True True True True True True True[af] True True True True[ag] True True 0 Theodore Roosevelt
1908 William Howard Taft

(Republican)

William Jennings Bryan

(Democrat)

True True False True True False True[ah] True True True True[ai] False True[aj] 3 William Howard Taft
1912 William Howard Taft

(Republican)

Woodrow Wilson

(Democrat)

False False[ak] True False[al] True True False True True True False False True 6 Woodrow Wilson
1916 Woodrow Wilson

(Democrat)

Charles Evans Hughes

(Republican)

False True True True True False True[am] True True True True[an] False True 3 Woodrow Wilson
1920 James M. Cox

(Democrat)

Warren G. Harding

(Republican)

False False[ao] False True False[ap] False True[aq] False[ar] True False[as] True[at] False True 8 Warren G. Harding
1924 Calvin Coolidge

(Republican)

John W. Davis

(Democrat)

False True True False[au] True True True[av] True False[aw] True True[ax] False True 4 Calvin Coolidge
1928 Herbert Hoover

(Republican)

Al Smith

(Democrat)

True True False True True True False True True True True[ay] False True 3 Herbert Hoover
1932 Herbert Hoover

(Republican)

Franklin D. Roosevelt

(Democrat)

False True True True False[az] False False False[ba] True True False False False 8 Franklin D. Roosevelt
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt

(Democrat)

Alf Landon

(Republican)

True True True True True True True[bb] True True True False True True 1 Franklin D. Roosevelt
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt

(Democrat)

Wendell Willkie

(Republican)

False True True True True True True[bc] True True True False True True 2 Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt

(Democrat)

Thomas E. Dewey

(Republican)

False True True True True True True[bd] True True False[be] True[bf] True True 2 Franklin D. Roosevelt
1948 Harry S. Truman

(Democrat)

Thomas E. Dewey

(Republican)

False True[bg] True False[bh] True False True[bi] True True False[bj] True[bk] False True 5 Harry S. Truman
1952 Adlai Stevenson II

(Democrat)

Dwight D. Eisenhower

(Republican)

True False[bl] False True True False False True False[bm] False[bn] True[bo] False False 8 Dwight D. Eisenhower
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower

(Republican)

Adlai Stevenson II

(Democrat)

True True True True True True False True True True True[bp] True True 1 Dwight D. Eisenhower
1960 Richard Nixon

(Republican)

John F. Kennedy

(Democrat)

False True False True False[bq] False False True True False[br] False False False 9 John F. Kennedy
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson

(Democrat)

Barry Goldwater

(Republican)

False True True True True True True[bs] True True False[bt] True[bu] False True 3 Lyndon B. Johnson
1968 Hubert Humphrey

(Democrat)

Richard Nixon

(Republican)

False False[bv] False False[bw] True True True[bx] False[by] True False[bz] False False True 8 Richard Nixon
1972 Richard Nixon

(Republican)

George McGovern

(Democrat)

False True True True True False False True True True True[ca] False True 4 Richard Nixon
1976 Gerald Ford

(Republican)

Jimmy Carter

(Democrat)

False False[cb] True True True False False True False[cc] False[cd] False False True 8 Jimmy Carter
1980 Jimmy Carter

(Democrat)

Ronald Reagan

(Republican)

False False[ce] True False[cf] False[cg] True False True True False[ch] True[ci] False False 8 Ronald Reagan
  1. ^ Lichtman (2020), Predicting the Next President

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The DNC took 59 ballots to nominate Douglas, which resulted in a party split between the Northern and Southern Democrats.
  2. ^ John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democratic) won 18.1% of the vote, John Bell (Constitutional Union) won 12.6%.
  3. ^ Bleeding Kansas and other violent conflicts between abolitionists and anti-abolitionists.
  4. ^ The abolition of slavery and other major wartime changes in national policy during the Civil War.
  5. ^ The Civil War.
  6. ^ Late Union victories in the Civil War.
  7. ^ Lincoln was only considered charismatic retrospectively after his death.
  8. ^ Lichtman considered the Republicans to be the incumbent party in 1868 despite outgoing president Andrew Johnson being a Democrat because Johnson was elected on a Republican fusion ticket and was heading an administration appointed by Lincoln.
  9. ^ Reconstruction Acts.
  10. ^ Widespread disorder in the Reconstruction era South.
  11. ^ Lichtman did not consider the impeachment of Andrew Johnson to be a bipartisan scandal.
  12. ^ Union victory in the Civil War.
  13. ^ Widespread disorder in the Reconstruction era South.
  14. ^ The Treaty of Washington and Great Rapprochement with the UK.
  15. ^ The RNC took seven ballots to nominate Hayes.
  16. ^ The Long Depression.
  17. ^ The Whiskey Ring scandal and other scandals in Grant's administration.
  18. ^ The RNC took 36 ballots to nominate Garfield.
  19. ^ The ending of Reconstruction.
  20. ^ The RNC refused to nominate President Chester A. Arthur and took four ballots to select Blaine.
  21. ^ The Depression of 1882–1885.
  22. ^ The Great Southwest railroad strike of 1886, the Haymarket affair and other labor disputes.
  23. ^ Harrison was challenged by James G. Blaine and William McKinley for the Republican nomination. Harrison won 59% of the vote on the first ballot at the RNC.
  24. ^ James B. Weaver won 8.5% of the vote.
  25. ^ The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the Dependent and Disability Pension Act and the Sherman Antitrust Act.
  26. ^ The Homestead strike and other labor disputes.
  27. ^ The DNC was split between populist and establishment Democrats and took five ballots to nominate Bryan.
  28. ^ The Panic of 1893 and 1896.
  29. ^ The Coxey's Army protests, the Pullman Strike and other incidents of labor unrest.
  30. ^ The Gold Standard Act and the McKinley Tariff.
  31. ^ U.S. victory in the Spanish–American War, the Treaty of Paris and the Open Door Policy with China.
  32. ^ The Square Deal. Roosevelt also directed the government to prosecute numerous antitrust suits.
  33. ^ The U.S. secured a lease on the Panama Canal Zone, the Cuban–American Treaty of Relations and a U.S. victory in the Philippine–American War.
  34. ^ The Federal Meat Inspection Act, the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Tillman Act of 1907.
  35. ^ Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War and the First Moroccan Crisis.
  36. ^ Bryan did not have the same success connecting with voters as he did in 1896 and 1900.
  37. ^ Former president Theodore Roosevelt contested Taft's re-nomination, leading to a party split between progressive and conservative Republicans.
  38. ^ Theodore Roosevelt won 27.4% of the vote as a third party candidate after being denied the Republican nomination.
  39. ^ The Revenue Act of 1913, the Federal Reserve Act and the Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914.
  40. ^ The Sussex pledge kept the U.S. out of World War I.
  41. ^ The DNC took 22 ballots to nominate Cox.
  42. ^ The Depression of 1920–1921.
  43. ^ Significant wartime legislation, the establishment of prohibition and nationwide voting rights for women.
  44. ^ Red Summer and First Red Scare.
  45. ^ The Senate refused to ratify the Treaty of Versailles, leaving the U.S. out of the League of Nations.
  46. ^ Allied victory in World War I.
  47. ^ Robert M. La Follette won 16.6% of the vote.
  48. ^ The Revenue Act of 1924, the Fordney–McCumber Tariff and the Immigration Act of 1924.
  49. ^ The Teapot Dome scandal.
  50. ^ Disarmament agreements reached during the Washington Naval Conference.
  51. ^ The Kellogg–Briand Pact.
  52. ^ The Great Depression.
  53. ^ Widespread economic hardship caused by the Great Depression.
  54. ^ The New Deal.
  55. ^ The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 and the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938.
  56. ^ Numerous policy changes to mobilize manpower and production in World War II.
  57. ^ Attack on Pearl Harbor and other early Japanese victories in the Pacific War.
  58. ^ Major allied advances in World War II.
  59. ^ The vocal opposition to Truman from Southern Democrats was not significant enough to constitute a major primary challenge.
  60. ^ Henry A. Wallace and Strom Thurmond split from the Democratic Party and ran insurgent third party campaigns.
  61. ^ Numerous foreign policy changes under the Truman Doctrine, the National Security Act of 1947 and the Marshall Plan.
  62. ^ The Soviet Union expanded its influence by creating the Eastern Bloc.
  63. ^ Allied victory in World War II.
  64. ^ The DNC took three ballots to nominate Stevenson.
  65. ^ The Democrat-controlled Senate investigated numerous charges of corruption among senior Truman administration officials.
  66. ^ Failure to conclude the Korean War and the Communist takeover of mainland China.
  67. ^ The establishment of NATO, the breaking of the Berlin Blockade and successes containing the expansion of Soviet communism.
  68. ^ Eisenhower negotiated an end to the Korean War.
  69. ^ The recession of 1960–1961.
  70. ^ The 1960 U-2 incident and the Communist takeover of Cuba.
  71. ^ The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964.
  72. ^ Failure of the Bay of Pigs Invasion.
  73. ^ Diplomatic resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
  74. ^ Although Humphrey won 67% of the vote on the first DNC ballot, there were deep and vocal divisions between the establishment and anti-Vietnam war wings of the Democratic Party, including significant protests at the convention.
  75. ^ George Wallace won 13.5% of the vote and five states.
  76. ^ Johnson's Great Society programs, including the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, the Social Security Amendments of 1965 and other social programs established as part of Johnson's war on poverty.
  77. ^ The civil rights movement and opposition to the Vietnam War.
  78. ^ Stalemate in the Vietnam War.
  79. ^ Detente with the Soviet Union and a rapprochement with China following Nixon's visit.
  80. ^ Ronald Reagan challenged Ford in the Republican primaries and won 47.4% of the vote on the first ballot at the RNC.
  81. ^ The Watergate scandal resulted in Nixon's resignation.
  82. ^ North Vietnamese victory in the Vietnam War and Khmer Rouge victory in the Cambodian Civil War.
  83. ^ Ted Kennedy challenged Carter in the Democratic primaries and won 34.7% of the vote on the first ballot at the DNC.
  84. ^ John B. Anderson won 6.6% of the vote running as a moderate independent between Carter and Reagan.
  85. ^ The 1980 recession.
  86. ^ The unresolved Iran hostage crisis.
  87. ^ The Camp David Accords.
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