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please do no remove this sandbox.(it is my own sandbox) At this moment is contains a copy (and edits) of the article Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This is to prevent editing the real article at this moment. This will be done after I am done with my edits. (as I am also a beginner I would not like to screw up in the real article yet, though I want to save my progress)

Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Dutch: Centraal Planbureau, Central Planning Bureau) is a part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Netherlands) and it delivers economic analysis and forecasts. In this process the CPB tries to be scientifically sound and up-to-date.

The CPB is an independent Dutch government agency founded at 15 September 1945 by Nobel Prize winner Jan Tinbergen. Only one and a halve year later ( 21 April 1947), it obtained its legal basis. It is located in The Hague.

Clients of the CPB are Dutch Cabinet, politicians and political parties, policy makers from ministries, labour unions, employer's organizations, etc. It also provides reports and advice for European Union initiatives. One of the government appointed members in the Social-Economic Council is chair of CPB.

Controversy

In 2011 the CPB conducted a research on the effects of the Euro for the Netherlands. The results were, among them, published in the book 'Europa in crisis'(Europe in crisis). One of the conclusion of the research was that the Euro had brought a benefit of a week pay. In a interview in 'De Telegraaf' (the dutch The Telegraph) in may 2014 the former director Coen Teulings admitted that under his supervision the positive effects of the research were deliberately exaggerated .

Unique status

Being financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Netherlands), but operating independent means it does not have to compete for income but also not obey commands from the ministry. This combination is the foundation for the unique status of the CPB. The CPB is asked to analyze the election platforms of the major parties for the effects of proposed policies on the budget deficit, unemployment, inflation, income differentials, and so forth. This makes a clear guide for voters because of the following advantages.

The advantages of the CPB analyzing the elections platforms are set out in the following points:

• The same underlying economics base scenario for the next government's term is used to evaluate each election platform. This means that differences in the outcomes between the parties cannot be due to diverging assumptions about economic developments.
• The political parties have to elaborate and explain their proposals in such a way that the CPB is able to analyze them. This means that the parties cannot (on the basis of unfounded optimism) exaggerate the benefits and/or understate the costs of their proposals.
• The policy proposals and their financial consequences are presented in a comparable way. This means that the parties' commitments in the financial and economic sphere can be compared to each other
• The CPB systematically investigates the consistency of the programs. In their initial proposals they are sometimes guilty of "miscalculations", but such issues are invariably resolved in the detailed discussions between the party in question and the CPB.
• The CPB only includes in its analysis measures which are expected to be technically and legally feasible. If the CPB does not have the in-house expertise to judge the feasibility or the legality of certain proposals, it obtains advice from other institutions.

It is also not uncommon to use the results of the CPB to defend attack or compare the different policies.

However it is possible that a party does not ask to analyze its election platform since it optional. However it became customary after the elections of 1986 that each major party asks the CPB to forecast the consequences of their election platform. The parties seem to fear more the accusation of not daring to face the consequences of their proposals than getting bad results. Also a contributing factor is the unique status of the CPB, it operates independently and the elections platforms are confidential, therefore they can still change factors to increase the results. However in 2002 the party "List Pim Fortuyn" did not submit their elections platform, although it came in as second largest party. The real results and future plans will never be known because Pim Fortuyn got murdered a few days before the vote, and the party declined afterwards.

Without asking the CPB also analyzes the new government budget proposal. This is to determine how successful a government is with it policies. The results of this analysis is the basis for the income and expenditure for the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Netherlands), making it impossible to deliver their own statistics or to change effects. This forces the government to stay within the given boundaries and lowers the chance of budget surprises. It also increases the credibility of the ministry estimates.

Operations

The CPB publishes twice a year a macroeconomic forecast called the "Central Economic Plan (CEP)" and the "Macroeconomic Explorations (MEV)".

MEV

The MEV is published in September simultaneously with the budget for the next year. It includes forecast for all the major variables and the effects of the new policies since last year. A preliminary version is send to the government in June, this document is confidential. At this time there is still a chance to change expenditures and revenues.

CEP

The CEP is published in March. It includes the forecast for all the major variables and the current policies. At this point in time new policies are decided or changed and they have a chance to look at the coming economic situation. For this purpose it updates the the forecasts of the previous MEV about the effects of the policies. There is also a provisional CEP supplied to the cabinet in January or February, which is used by the minister of finance for the expenditure targets.

Models

The CPB uses several models to analysis policies or the economy. The main model is SAFFIER II, next to this there are several small models which can be attached to SAFFIER II.

SAFFIER II

In May 2010 the CPB changed from SAFFIER to SAFFIER II. It is an actualized and modernized version of SAFFIER and therefore the name is maintained. The special features of SAFFIER II are that it consist of one model, which has two time frames (quarterly and yearly) which is applied on three states(short term, medium term and long term). The major differences with SAFFIER are:

• All behavioral equations have been re-estimated
• Some changes on the production function, wage rate, private consumption and export have been made

SAFFIER II consist in total of 1750 equations. However this consist of a core of only 25 equations, the behavioral equations. Than there are 270 rules of thumb, which are non estimated, easy equations. The major part of the 1750 equations exist of the 1455 identities, this are technical equations and definition equations, which do not change over time. Next to this there are 1250 help equations, these do not influence the model but help analyzing and checking the results.

Imperfections

The models are constructed with high detail and a lot of attention. However the models do not always reflect reality and are based on theories. Therefore there is a generally a deviation of 1 percentage point. Also the models change regularly to adapt to new theories and needs.

Directors

1945 – 1955	Jan Tinbergen
1955 – 1957	Fred Polak
1957 – 1966	Pieter de Wolff
1966 – 1984	Cees van den Beld
1984 – 1989	Peter de Ridder
1989 – 1994	Gerrit Zalm
1994 – 2006	Henk Don
2006 – 2013	Coen Teulings
2013 –	Laura van Geest (As of 1 August 2013)

Other notable researchers

Beside the directors, other notable researchers of the institute have been:

• Lans Bovenberg,
• Mars Cramer
• Wim Driehuis
• Per Schreiner
• Jan Sandee
• Henri Theil
• Johan Witteveen.

Applied policy research Institutes

The CPB is one of the three applied policy research institutes of the Dutch government, the other two being:

• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
• The Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP).

External links

• Official website

Further readings

General information

• Official website

General history

• Passenier, J. (1994), Van planning tot scanning, een halve eeuw Planbureau in Nederland, Wolters-

Noordhoff, Groningen. (dutch book)

Models

SAFFIER II

SAFFIER II: 1 model voor de Nederlandse economie, in 2 hoedanigheden, voor 3 toepassingen (in dutch)Download

History of models

• Don, F., & Verbruggen, J. P. (2006), Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB. Statistica Neerlandica, 60: 145–170. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2006.00323.x

Category:Government agencies of the Netherlands Category:Research institutes in the Netherlands Category:Economic research institutes Category:Independent government agencies of the Netherlands