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* [[Sherrod Brown]], [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Ohio]] since 2007; [[United States House of Representatives|U.S. Representative]] 1993–2007; [[Secretary of State of Ohio|Secretary of State]] 1983–1991<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://observer.com/2017/03/sherrod-brown-kamala-harris-donald-trump-reelection/|title=Brown-Harris 2020: A Ticket to Threaten Trump’s Re-election|date=March 1, 2017|first=Cliston|last=Brown|work=[[New York Observer]]|accessdate=March 3, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/313666-cory-booker-kicks-off-2020-maneuvering-in-the-senate|title=Cory Booker kicks off 2020 maneuvering in the Senate|date=January 11, 2017|first=Alexander|last=Bolton|work=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|accessdate=February 21, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Sherrod Brown]], [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Ohio]] since 2007; [[United States House of Representatives|U.S. Representative]] 1993–2007; [[Secretary of State of Ohio|Secretary of State]] 1983–1991<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://observer.com/2017/03/sherrod-brown-kamala-harris-donald-trump-reelection/|title=Brown-Harris 2020: A Ticket to Threaten Trump’s Re-election|date=March 1, 2017|first=Cliston|last=Brown|work=[[New York Observer]]|accessdate=March 3, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/313666-cory-booker-kicks-off-2020-maneuvering-in-the-senate|title=Cory Booker kicks off 2020 maneuvering in the Senate|date=January 11, 2017|first=Alexander|last=Bolton|work=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|accessdate=February 21, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Chelsea Clinton]], [[First Family of the United States|First Daughter of the United States]] 1993–2001; First Daughter of [[Arkansas]] 1980–1981 and 1983–1992<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.inquisitr.com/opinion/4092122/is-hillary-grooming-chelsea-clinton-for-white-house-in-2020-chelsea-vs-trump/|title=IS HILLARY GROOMING CHELSEA CLINTON FOR WHITE HOUSE IN 2020 – CHELSEA VS TRUMP? [OPINION]|date=March 26, 2017|first=Roz|last=Zurko|work=[[Inquisitr]]|accessdate=March 30, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.abc15.com/news/national/no-chelsea-clinton-is-not-running-for-office-right-now|title=No, Chelsea Clinton is not running for office ... 'right now'|date=March 29, 2017|work=[[KNXV-TV]]|accessdate=March 30, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Chelsea Clinton]], [[First Family of the United States|First Daughter of the United States]] 1993–2001; First Daughter of [[Arkansas]] 1980–1981 and 1983–1992<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.inquisitr.com/opinion/4092122/is-hillary-grooming-chelsea-clinton-for-white-house-in-2020-chelsea-vs-trump/|title=IS HILLARY GROOMING CHELSEA CLINTON FOR WHITE HOUSE IN 2020 – CHELSEA VS TRUMP? [OPINION]|date=March 26, 2017|first=Roz|last=Zurko|work=[[Inquisitr]]|accessdate=March 30, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.abc15.com/news/national/no-chelsea-clinton-is-not-running-for-office-right-now|title=No, Chelsea Clinton is not running for office ... 'right now'|date=March 29, 2017|work=[[KNXV-TV]]|accessdate=March 30, 2017}}</ref>

* [[Hillary Clinton]], [[U.S. Secretary of State]] 2009–2013; [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[New York (state)|New York]] 2001–2009; [[First Lady of the United States]] 1993–2001; First Lady of [[Arkansas]] 1979–1981 and 1983–1992; candidate for President in [[Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2008|2008]] and Democratic nominee in [[Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016|2016]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4156564/Hillary-television-groundwork-White-House-run.html|title='I'll be back!': Defeated candidate Clinton considers launching liberal television show to lay the groundwork for ANOTHER White House run|date=January 25, 2017|first=David|last=Martosko|work=[[Daily Mail]]|accessdate=February 21, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/hillary-clinton-is-running-for-president-again-214766|title=Hillary Clinton Is Running Again|date=February 12, 2017|first=Matt|last=Latimer|work=[[Politico]]|accessdate=February 12, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/02/hillary-clinton-2020-campaign-possibility|title=Is Hillary Clinton Eyeing a 2020 Run?|date=February 12, 2017|first=Emma|last=Stefansky|work=[[Vanity Fair (magazine)|Vanity Fair]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-clinton-20170406-story,amp.html|title=Hillary Clinton says she will never run for public office again|publisher=[[The Los Angeles Times]]|date=April 7, 2017|accessdate=April 7, 2017}}</ref>
* [[George Clooney]], actor, filmmaker, and activist from [[California]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/not-happy-trump-potus-could-9225583|title=Not happy with Trump as POTUS? There could be another celebrity candidate on the cards|date=November 9, 2016|first=Antonia|last=Paget|work=[[Daily Express]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/02/why-george-clooney-candidate-beat-donald-trump-2020|title=Why George Clooney is the candidate to beat Donald Trump in 2020|date=February 15, 2017|first=Sasha|last=Abramsky|work=[[New Statesman]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/24/george-clooney-gets-political-at-c-sar-awards-trump-gives-comfort-to-our-enemies.html|title=George Clooney Gets Political at César Awards: Trump Gives ‘Comfort to Our Enemies’|date=February 24, 2017|first=Matt|last=Wilstein|work=[[The Daily Beast]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref>
* [[George Clooney]], actor, filmmaker, and activist from [[California]]<ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/not-happy-trump-potus-could-9225583|title=Not happy with Trump as POTUS? There could be another celebrity candidate on the cards|date=November 9, 2016|first=Antonia|last=Paget|work=[[Daily Express]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/02/why-george-clooney-candidate-beat-donald-trump-2020|title=Why George Clooney is the candidate to beat Donald Trump in 2020|date=February 15, 2017|first=Sasha|last=Abramsky|work=[[New Statesman]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{citeweb|url=http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/02/24/george-clooney-gets-political-at-c-sar-awards-trump-gives-comfort-to-our-enemies.html|title=George Clooney Gets Political at César Awards: Trump Gives ‘Comfort to Our Enemies’|date=February 24, 2017|first=Matt|last=Wilstein|work=[[The Daily Beast]]|accessdate=March 16, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Mark Cuban]], businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from [[Texas]]<ref name=Cuban1>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-for-president-maybe-2017-2|title=Mark Cuban offers cryptic response when asked if he's considering future presidential bid|date=February 13, 2017|first=Allan|last=Smith|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=February 25, 2017}}</ref><ref name=Cuban2>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-mark-cuban-trump-2020-2017-2|title=Poll shows Mark Cuban in surprisingly competitive position against Trump in prospective 2020 race|date=February 23, 2017|first=Allan|last=Smith|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref name=Cuban3>{{citeweb|url=http://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/16/mark-cuban-2020-presidential-election|title=Mark Cuban ruling out 2020 presidential run....for now|date=March 16, 2017|work=[[Sports Illustrated]]|accessdate=March 18, 2017}}</ref>
* [[Mark Cuban]], businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist from [[Texas]]<ref name=Cuban1>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-for-president-maybe-2017-2|title=Mark Cuban offers cryptic response when asked if he's considering future presidential bid|date=February 13, 2017|first=Allan|last=Smith|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=February 25, 2017}}</ref><ref name=Cuban2>{{citeweb|url=http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-mark-cuban-trump-2020-2017-2|title=Poll shows Mark Cuban in surprisingly competitive position against Trump in prospective 2020 race|date=February 23, 2017|first=Allan|last=Smith|work=[[Business Insider]]|accessdate=March 10, 2017}}</ref><ref name=Cuban3>{{citeweb|url=http://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/16/mark-cuban-2020-presidential-election|title=Mark Cuban ruling out 2020 presidential run....for now|date=March 16, 2017|work=[[Sports Illustrated]]|accessdate=March 18, 2017}}</ref>

Revision as of 05:42, 7 April 2017

United States presidential election, 2020
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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

Barring any major change in circumstances, Republican Donald Trump, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

President Donald Trump will be able to seek re-election.

Procedure

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[2]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[3] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[4]

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent President seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

Trump vs. Biden
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Joe Biden Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 40% 54% 6%
Trump vs. Booker
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Cory Booker Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 42% 45% 13%
Trump vs. Franken
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Al Franken Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Elizabeth Warren Undecided
Public Policy Polling[5] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%
Politico/Morning Consult[6] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 42% 36% 22%
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Oprah Winfrey Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7] 808 March 10–12, 2017 ± 3.4% 40% 47% 12%
Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Cuban Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] 941 February 21–22, 2017 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 19%
Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Democratic Candidate Undecided
Politico/Morning Consult[6] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 35% 43% 22%

Republican Party

Further information: Republican Party (United States)

Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so.[9] On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[10]

Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Jack Fellure 		October 3, 1931
(age 92)
Midkiff, West Virginia 		Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016
West Virginia 		November 9, 2016 [11]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

Potential convention sites

Democratic Party

Main article: Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2020
Further information: Democratic Party (United States)

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Rocky De La Fuente 		October 10, 1954
(age 69)
San Diego, California 		American Delta and Reform
nominee for President in 2016
Florida 		January 9, 2017 [28]

Geoffrey Fieger 		December 23, 1950
(age 73)
Detroit, Michigan 		Democratic nominee for
Governor of Michigan in 1998
Michigan 		January 13, 2017 [29]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

Potential convention sites

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Joe Biden Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Julian Castro Hillary Clinton Mark Cuban Andrew Cuomo Al Franken Kirsten Gillibrand Tim Kaine Michelle Obama Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Oprah Winfrey Others Undecided
Harvard-Harris[131] 2,092 March 14–16, 2017 N/A – 3% – – – 4% 4% – – – 14% 18% 10% 4% 44% –
Harvard-Harris[131] 2,092 March 14–16, 2017 N/A – 3% – – 8% 4% 3% – – – 11% 14% 9% 3% 45% –
Rasmussen[132] 1,000 February 8–9, 2017 ± 3% 15% 8% – – 17% – – 6% – – – 20% 16% – 0% 20%
Public Policy Polling[133] 400 December 6–7, 2016 ± 4.9% 31% 4% 2% 0% – – 2% 3% 3% – – 24% 16% – – 14%
Politico/Morning Consult[134] 1,989 October 5–6, 2016 ± 2% – 5% – – – – 6% – – 10% – – 16% – 8% 54%

Statewide polling

Iowa

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Cory Booker Julian Castro Andrew Cuomo Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Sheryl Sandberg Howard Schultz Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[135]

(for a Martin O'Malley-aligned PAC)

1,062 March 3–6, 2017 N/A 17% 4% 8% 3% 3% 11% 18% 4% 1% – 32%

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Adam Kokesh 		February 1, 1982
(age 42)
San Francisco, California 		Political activist
Arizona 		July 22, 2013 [136]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Green Party

Further information: Green Party of the United States

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Candidates in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Declined to be candidates

Independent or unaffiliated

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref Notes

Jeremy Gable		 May 10, 1982
(age 42)
Lakenheath, England		 Playwright
Pennsylvania
May 11, 2015
 [140]

Dan Rattiner		 1939
(age Error: Need valid year, month, day)
New York City, New York		 Journalist
Newspaper publisher
New York
April 24, 2015
 [141]

Jeffrey Sharp		 Birth date unknown Producer
Publishing entrepreneur
California
December 8, 2016
 [142]

Kanye West 		June 8, 1977
(age 46)
Atlanta, Georgia 		Rapper
Songwriter
Record producer
Fashion designer
Entrepreneur
California 		August 30, 2015 [143]

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

See also

References

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