2016 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary: Difference between revisions
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On the same day, the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party]] held primaries in [[Florida Democratic primary, 2016|Florida]], [[Illinois Democratic primary, 2016|Illinois]], [[Missouri Democratic primary, 2016|Missouri]], and [[Ohio Democratic primary, 2016|Ohio]], while the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]] held primaries in the same five states, including their own [[North Carolina Republican primary, 2016|North Carolina primary]], plus the Northern Mariana Islands. |
On the same day, the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party]] held primaries in [[Florida Democratic primary, 2016|Florida]], [[Illinois Democratic primary, 2016|Illinois]], [[Missouri Democratic primary, 2016|Missouri]], and [[Ohio Democratic primary, 2016|Ohio]], while the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]] held primaries in the same five states, including their own [[North Carolina Republican primary, 2016|North Carolina primary]], plus the Northern Mariana Islands. |
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== Background == |
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{{Further|United States presidential election#Procedure}} |
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[[Article Two of the United States Constitution#Clause 5: Qualifications for office|Article Two]] of the [[United States Constitution]] provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various [[Political parties]] of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a [[primary election]]) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually [[indirect election]]s where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]]; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President. |
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The incumbent, President [[Barack Obama]], a [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrat]] and former [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Illinois]], is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the [[Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution|Twenty-second Amendment]]; in accordance with Section 1 of the [[Twentieth Amendment to the United States Constitution|Twentieth Amendment]], his term expires at noon on January 20, 2017. In the [[United States presidential election, 2008|2008 election]], Obama was elected president, defeating the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] nominee, Senator [[John McCain]] of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.<ref name="house floor summary">{{cite web|url=http://clerk.house.gov/floorsummary/floor.html?day=20090108|title=United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009|publisher=Clerk.house.gov|accessdate=March 25, 2016}}</ref><ref name="2012 election results">{{cite web|title=Federal elections 2008|url=http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/federalelections2008.pdf|publisher=Federal Election Commission|accessdate=March 25, 2016}}</ref> Obama succeeded two-term Republican President [[George W. Bush]], the former [[Governor of Texas]]. Since the end of 2009, polling companies such as [[Gallup (company)|Gallup]] have found Obama's [[United States presidential approval rating|approval ratings]] to be between 40 and 50 percent.<ref name=Galluppolls>{{cite web|title=Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx|website=Gallup|publisher=Gallup|accessdate=March 25, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html|title=Election Other – President Obama Job Approval|publisher=RealClearPolitics|accessdate=March 23, 2016}}</ref> Analysts such as [[Larry Sabato]] have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, helping or hurting{{vague|date=February 2016}} the Democratic candidate.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Sabato|first1=Larry J.|title=Clinton’s Real Opponent: Barack Obama|url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html|date=May 11, 2015|publisher=Politico|accessdate=March 25, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Cohn|first1=Nate|title=What a Rise in Obama’s Approval Rating Means for 2016|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/20/upshot/what-a-rise-in-obamas-approval-rating-means-for-2016.html?abt=0002&abg=0|accessdate=March 25, 2016|work=[[The New York Times]]|publisher=[[The New York Times Company]]|date=January 16, 2015}}</ref> If Obama and Vice President [[Joe Biden]] serve out the remainder of their respective terms, the voters will elect the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States, respectively. |
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In the [[United States elections, 2010|2010 midterm elections]], the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2010|House of Representatives]] (thus taking control of the chamber), and six seats in the [[United States Senate elections, 2010|Senate]], though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, [[John Boehner]] became the 53rd [[Speaker of the United States House of Representatives|Speaker of the House of Representatives]]. This made Obama the first President in [[United States House of Representatives elections, 1994|16 years]] to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the [[Tea Party movement]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1326053/MID-TERM-ELECTIONS-2010-Democrats-lose-House-Republican-tsunami.html|title=Mid-term Electons 2010: Democrats lose the House in Republican tsunami|work=[[Daily Mail]]|publisher=[[Daily Mail and General Trust]]|accessdate=March 25, 2016}}</ref> In the [[United States presidential election, 2012|2012 presidential election]], incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.<ref name="President Map">{{cite news|title=President Map|url=http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president|accessdate=March 25, 2016|work=[[The New York Times]]|publisher=[[The New York Times Company]]|date=November 29, 2012}}</ref> Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the [[United States House of Representatives|House of Representatives]] despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the [[United States Senate|Senate]].<ref name="2012 election results" /> Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with ''[[New York (magazine)|New York]]'' magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Amira|first1=Dan|title=Let the 2016 Campaign Season Begin!|url=http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/11/let-the-2016-campaign-season-begin.html|accessdate=March 25, 2016|agency=New York|date=November 8, 2012}}</ref> On the same day, ''[[Politico]]'' released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[Jeb Bush]], while a ''[[New York Times]]'' article named [[Chris Christie]] and [[Cory Booker]] as potential candidates.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Martin|first1=Johnathon|last2=Haberman|first2=Maggie|title=2016 election: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush?|url=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83550_Page4.html|accessdate=March 25, 2016|publisher=Politico|date=November 8, 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Barbaro|first1=Micharl|title=After Obama, Christie Wants a G.O.P. Hug|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/us/politics/after-embrace-of-obama-chris-christie-woos-a-wary-gop.html|accessdate=March 23, 2016|work=[[The New York Times]]|publisher=[[The New York Times Company]]|date=November 8, 2012}}</ref> In the [[United States elections, 2014|2014 midterm elections]], voter turnout was the lowest seen in 70 years, with only 34.4% of eligible voters voting.<ref>{{cite web|title=2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years {{!}} PBS NewsHour|url=http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/2014-midterm-election-turnout-lowest-in-70-years/|website=PBS NewsHour|accessdate=March 25, 2016|language=en-US}}</ref> As a result of the election, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2014|increasing their majority]] to its largest level since 1928.{{citation needed|date=March 2016}} Republicans also [[United States Senate elections, 2014|gained a majority]] in the Senate. |
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==Opinion polling== |
==Opinion polling== |
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 Election results by county. Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders | |||||||||||||||||||
The 2016 North Carolina Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of North Carolina as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own North Carolina primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.
Background
Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various Political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.
The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at noon on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40 and 50 percent.[3][4] Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, helping or hurting[vague] the Democratic candidate.[5][6] If Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the remainder of their respective terms, the voters will elect the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States, respectively.
In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives (thus taking control of the chamber), and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives. This made Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.[7] In the 2012 presidential election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.[8] Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[2] Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[9] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[10][11] In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest seen in 70 years, with only 34.4% of eligible voters voting.[12] As a result of the election, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since 1928.[citation needed] Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate.
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | March 15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 54.5% |
Bernie Sanders 40.9% |
Others / Uncommitted 4.6% | |
| Public Policy Polling[13]
Margin of error: ± 3.6%
|
March 11–13, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Bernie Sanders 37% |
Others / Undecided 7% | |
| High Point University/SurveyUSA[14]
Margin of error: ± 3.8%
|
March 9–10, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 58% |
Bernie Sanders 34% |
Others / Undecided 8% | |
| WRAL/SurveyUSA[15]
Margin of error: ± 3.8%
|
March 4–7, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 57% |
Bernie Sanders 34% |
Others / Undecided 9% | |
| Civitas[16]
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
March 3-7, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 57% |
Bernie Sanders 28% |
Others / Undecided 15% | |
| Elon University[17]
Margin of error: ± 3.6%
|
February 15–17, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% |
Bernie Sanders 37% |
Others / Undecided 16% | |
| SurveyUSA[18]
Margin of error: ± 4.7%
|
February 14–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 51% |
Bernie Sanders 36% |
No Preference 4%, Undecided 9% | |
| Public Policy Polling[19]
Margin of error: ± 4.1
|
February 14–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 52% |
Bernie Sanders 35% |
Others / Undecided 13% | |
| High Point[20]
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
|
January 30 – February 4, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 55% |
Bernie Sanders 29% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Not Sure 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[21]
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
January 18–19, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 59% |
Bernie Sanders 26% |
Martin O'Malley 5% |
Not Sure 10% |
| Civitas[22]
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
January 13–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 53% |
Bernie Sanders 28% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 17% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[23]
Margin of error: ± 2.8%
|
December 5–7, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Bernie Sanders 21% |
Martin O'Malley 10% |
Not Sure 9% |
| Elon University[24]
Margin of error: ± 4.32%
|
October 29 – November 2, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 57% |
Bernie Sanders 24% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 2% Undecided/DK 13% Refused 0.5% |
| Public Policy Polling[25]
Margin of error: ± 4.8%
|
October 23–25, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 61% |
Bernie Sanders 24% |
Martin O'Malley 5% |
Lawrence Lessig 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[26]
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
|
September 24–27, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 37% |
Joe Biden 30% |
Bernie Sanders 17% |
Jim Webb 3%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, Not sure 10% |
| Elon University[27]
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
September 17–21, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 53.40% |
Bernie Sanders 23.00% |
Jim Webb 1.60% |
Lincoln Chafee 0.70%, Lawrence Lessig 0.70%, Martin O'Malley 0.20%, Other 2.10%, Undecided/Don't know 17.10%, Refuse 1.20% |
| Public Policy Polling[28]
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
|
August 12–16, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 55% |
Bernie Sanders 19% |
Jim Webb 5% |
Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1% |
| Public Policy Polling[29]
Margin of error: ± 5.8%
|
July 2–6, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 55% |
Bernie Sanders 20% |
Jim Webb 7% |
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 11% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
|
May 28–31, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 62% |
Bernie Sanders 14% |
Jim Webb 5% |
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 12% |
| Survey USA
Margin of error: ± 4.7%
|
April 22–27, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Elizabeth Warren 11% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Other/Undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
April 2–5, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 53% |
Joe Biden 13% |
Elizabeth Warren 11% |
Martin O'Malley 5%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Someone else/Undecided 12% |
| Civitas Institute
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
March 20–23, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 53% |
Elizabeth Warren 19% |
Joe Biden 9% |
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Other/Undecided 13% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
February 24–26, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Elizabeth Warren 13% |
Joe Biden 11% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Someone else/Undecided 12% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
January 29–31, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 54% |
Joe Biden 18% |
Elizabeth Warren 12% |
Bernie Sanders 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
December 4–7, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 52% |
Joe Biden 18% |
Elizabeth Warren 7% |
Bernie Sanders 5%, Andrew Cuomo 4%, Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10% |
| Suffolk
Margin of error: ± ?%
|
August 16–19, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 57.09% |
Joe Biden 14.96% |
Elizabeth Warren 9.06% |
Martin O'Malley 2.76%, Andrew Cuomo 1.97%, Undecided 11.42%, Refused 2.76% |
| Civitas Institute
Margin of error: ± ?%
|
July 28–29, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 40% |
Elizabeth Warren 12% |
Joe Biden 9% |
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Amy Klobuchar 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Won't vote in Democratic primary 15%, Undecided 14%, Refused 3%, Other 0% |
Results
| North Carolina Democratic primary, March 15, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 622,915 | 54.50% | 60 | 8 | 68 |
| Bernie Sanders | 467,018 | 40.86% | 47 | 2 | 49 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 12,122 | 1.06% | |||
| Rocky De La Fuente | 3,376 | 0.30% | |||
| No preference | 37,485 | 3.28% | |||
| Uncommitted | — | 3 | 3 | ||
| Total | 1,142,916 | 100% | 107 | 13 | 120 |
| Sources: The Green Papers, North Carolina State board of Elections, North Carolina Democratic Party - Official Delegation for Pledged Delegates | |||||
References
- ^ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ a b "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "Presidential Approval Ratings -- Barack Obama". Gallup. Gallup. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ Sabato, Larry J. (May 11, 2015). "Clinton's Real Opponent: Barack Obama". Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ Cohn, Nate (January 16, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. The New York Times Company. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "Mid-term Electons 2010: Democrats lose the House in Republican tsunami". Daily Mail. Daily Mail and General Trust. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "President Map". The New York Times. The New York Times Company. November 29, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ Amira, Dan (November 8, 2012). "Let the 2016 Campaign Season Begin!". New York. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ Martin, Johnathon; Haberman, Maggie (November 8, 2012). "2016 election: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush?". Politico. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ Barbaro, Micharl (November 8, 2012). "After Obama, Christie Wants a G.O.P. Hug". The New York Times. The New York Times Company. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years | PBS NewsHour". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
- ^ [1]
- ^ [2]
- ^ [3]
- ^ [4]
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ "Trump, Clinton Continue To Lead By Double Digits in NC" (PDF).
- ^ High Point University. "HPU Poll: Clinton Leads Democratic Primary; Trump, Cruz and Rubio Have Most GOP Support". High Point University.
- ^ "Trump Keeps Gaining in NC; Clinton Maintains Huge Lead" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. 20 January 2016. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
- ^ Dowdy, Demi (27 January 2016). "Civitas Poll: Clinton Maintains Strong Lead among NC Democrats". Civitas Institute. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
- ^ "PPP NC poll" (PDF).
- ^ "Presidential Primary Poll October 29 – November 2, 2015" (PDF). Elon University. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
- ^ "Clinton rising in North Carolina; Trump still leads" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. 27 October 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
- ^ "Trump Steady in North Carolina; Biden Polls Well" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-09-30.
- ^ "Elon University Presidential Primary Poll September 17–21, 2015" (PDF). www.elon.edu. Retrieved 2015-09-24.
- ^ "Trump Continues to Grow in North Carolina; Dem Race Steady" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
- ^ "PPP NC" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.