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In mid July amid another spike of new confirmed coronavirus cases in the city, [[Tam Yiu-chung]], the sole representative from Hong Kong on NPCSC, suggested that the government should not rule out postponing the upcoming election.<ref name=thestandard_151326>{{cite news|title=Tam Yiu-chung suggests readying to put off polls|url=https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/151326/Tam-Yiu-chung-suggests-readying-to-put-off-polls|date=20 July 2020|work=The Standard}}</ref> Echoed by other pro-Beijing politicians, Tam said elderly people would not go to vote out of fear of being infected. He also noted said many elderly people had migrated to live in the [[Greater Bay Area]] and would prefer not to return to Hong Kong to vote, given that the city implemented a 14-day quarantine requirement for incoming travellers, denying any criticism that the pro-Beijing camp was afraid of losing the election. [[Tanya Chan]], Civic Party legislator and convenor of the pro-democracy camp in the legislature, said the pro-Beijing camp was urging the postponement of the LegCo election as they knew they would lose. She noted that many places, including Queensland in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, had run their elections amid the pandemic earlier this year.<ref>{{cite news|title=Politicians debate postponing Hong Kong election|date=21 July 2020|work=Asia Times|url=https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/politicians-debate-postponing-hong-kong-election/}}</ref>
In mid July amid another spike of new confirmed coronavirus cases in the city, [[Tam Yiu-chung]], the sole representative from Hong Kong on NPCSC, suggested that the government should not rule out postponing the upcoming election.<ref name=thestandard_151326>{{cite news|title=Tam Yiu-chung suggests readying to put off polls|url=https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/151326/Tam-Yiu-chung-suggests-readying-to-put-off-polls|date=20 July 2020|work=The Standard}}</ref> Echoed by other pro-Beijing politicians, Tam said elderly people would not go to vote out of fear of being infected. He also noted said many elderly people had migrated to live in the [[Greater Bay Area]] and would prefer not to return to Hong Kong to vote, given that the city implemented a 14-day quarantine requirement for incoming travellers, denying any criticism that the pro-Beijing camp was afraid of losing the election. [[Tanya Chan]], Civic Party legislator and convenor of the pro-democracy camp in the legislature, said the pro-Beijing camp was urging the postponement of the LegCo election as they knew they would lose. She noted that many places, including Queensland in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, had run their elections amid the pandemic earlier this year.<ref>{{cite news|title=Politicians debate postponing Hong Kong election|date=21 July 2020|work=Asia Times|url=https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/politicians-debate-postponing-hong-kong-election/}}</ref>


On 31 July 2020, Carrie Lam announced the invocation of [[Emergency Regulations Ordinance]] to postpone the election, citing the resurgence of the COVID-19 cases.<ref name="postpone"/> She said that with 4.4 million registered voters in Hong Kong, the elections would involve "a large-scale gathering and an immense infection risk", particularly to elders while social distancing measures would prevent candidates from canvassing, adding that many registered voters in mainland China and oversea would be unable to take part in the elections while border quarantine measures were in place. The pro-democrats who hoped to ride on a wave of deep-seated dissatisfaction with the government accused the government of using the pandemic as a pretext to stop people from voting. Civic Party legislator [[Tanya Chan]] suspected pro-Beijing politicians were more concerned about "their own election prospects" rather than "the severity of the pandemic". Joshua Wong wrote on Twitter that the pandemic was being used as "as an excuse to postpone the election" and was "the largest election fraud in #HK's history."<ref>{{cite news|title=Hong Kong postpones elections for a year 'over virus concerns'|date=2020-07-31|work=BBC|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53563090}}</ref> Pro-democracy legislator Eddie Chu said that [[Chinese Communist Party]] was ordering "a strategic retreat." They "want to avoid a potential devastating defeat" in the election, he wrote on Twitter.<ref>{{cite news|title=Hong Kong Delays Election, Citing Coronavirus. The Opposition Isn’t Buying It.|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/world/asia/hong-kong-election-delayed.html|date=31 July 2020|work=New York Times}}</ref>
On 31 July 2020, Carrie Lam announced the invocation of [[Emergency Regulations Ordinance]] to postpone the election, citing the resurgence of the COVID-19 cases.<ref name="postpone"/>


==Retiring incumbents==
==Retiring incumbents==

Revision as of 15:41, 31 July 2020

2021 Hong Kong legislative election
← 2016 5 September 2021
All 70 seats to the Legislative Council
36 seats needed for a majority
Registered4,466,944 (GC) Increase18.20%
  Starry Lee Lo Wai-kwok Wu Chi-wai
Leader Starry Lee Lo Wai-kwok Wu Chi-wai
Party DAB BPA Democratic
Alliance Pro-Beijing Pro-Beijing Pro-democracy
Leader's seat District Council (Second) Engineering Kowloon East
Last election 12 seats, 16.68% 7 seats, 2.29% 7 seats, 9.22%
Current seats 13 8 7
  Alvin Yeung Ng Chau-pei Felix Chung
Leader Alvin Yeung Ng Chau-pei Felix Chung
Party Civic FTU Liberal
Alliance Pro-democracy Pro-Beijing Pro-Beijing
Leader's seat New Territories East No seat Textiles & Garment
Last election 6 seats, 9.59% 5 seats, 7.83% 4 seats, 0.99%
Current seats 5 4 4
  Regina Ip Paul Zimmerman Ray Chan
Leader Regina Ip Paul Zimmerman Ray Chan
Party NPP Prof Commons People Power
Alliance Pro-Beijing Pro-democracy Pro-democracy
Leader's seat Hong Kong Island No seat New Territories East
Last election 3 seats, 7.73% 2 seats 1 seat, 5.87%
Current seats 2 2 1
Incumbent President

Andrew Leung
BPA



The 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council election is scheduled on 5 September 2021 for the 7th Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo).[1] A total of 70 members, 35 from geographical constituencies (GCs) and 35 from functional constituencies (FCs), will be returned.

Originally scheduled on 6 September 2020, Chief Executive Carrie Lam invoked the Emergency Regulations Ordinance on 31 July 2020 to postpone the election for a whole year, citing the resurgence of the COVID-19 cases.[2]

Riding on the 2019 District Council electoral landslide, the pro-democrats aim to achieve "35+" majority in the legislature to force the government to accede to the five key demands of the 2019–20 massive pro-democracy protests. To curb the protests and counter the international pressure, Beijing imposed the national security law in June 2020.

The July pro-democracy primaries saw a younger group of activists edging out the traditional democrats. In the nomination period, 12 opposition candidates were barred from running by the government, including activist Joshua Wong and four incumbent legislators Alvin Yeung, Kwok Ka-ki, Dennis Kwok and Kenneth Leung.[3]

Background

Anti-extradition protests and District Council landslide

Main articles: 2019–20 Hong Kong protests and 2019 Hong Kong local elections

In mid 2019, the Carrie Lam administration push for an amendment of the extradition law created an unprecedented political crisis in Hong Kong.[4] More than a million people marched against the bill in mid June and resulted in violent clashes between the police and the protesters outside the Central Government Complex on 12 June.[5]

The protests dragged on and escalated as Carrie Lam refused to fully withdraw the bill, resulting in huge anti-government sentiment that projected on the November District Council election, where the pro-Beijing parties suffered historic defeat, costing them about two third of the seats. The pro-democrats jumped from around 124 to about 388 seats and took control of 17 of the 18 District Councils as a result.[6]

The stunning results greatly boosted the morale of the pro-democrats who turned their eyes on a majority of the Legislative Council in 2020 election. Benny Tai, initiator of the 2014 Occupy protests, suggested the chance of the pro-democrats winning more than half of the seats to block the government's bills including the expected legislation of the Article 23 of the Basic Law and pressured the government to implement the five key demands of the protest movement, initiating a primary within the pro-democracy camp. He also initiated "ThunderGo plan 2.0", which mirrored his coordinating mechanism of "smart voters" in the 2016 election to strategic voting to increase the chance of the pro-democracy candidates.[7]

National security legislation

Main article: Hong Kong national security law

In early 2020, the central government suddenly shuffled the personnels and organisations of its representative organs in Hong Kong by replacing the China's Liaison Office in Hong Kong director Wang Zhimin with former Communist Party secretary in Shanxi Luo Huining and Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office director Zhang Xiaoming with former Communist Party secretary in Zhejiang Xia Baolong, with Luo becoming his deputy.[8] Political analysts speculated that one of the key tasks for Luo and Xia was to make sure that the pro-Beijing camp would continue to hold the majority in the legislature in the coming election.[9]

The two Beijing's agencies in Hong Kong had been unusually outspoken, going on offensive by urging the Hong Kong government for implement new national security law to safeguard national security.[10] In May 2020, the Beijing authorities initiated a plan for implementing the national security law for Hong Kong which would prominently criminalise "separatism, subversion, terrorism and foreign interference", which many interpreted as a crackdown on civil liberties, government critics, and the independence movement.[11] Pro-democracy camp and various national governments expressed concern that the Chinese plans would undermine Hong Kong autonomy and the "One Country, Two Systems" principle. Civic Party leader Alvin Yeung said the details of the legislation show "Beijing's power is stabbing right into Hong Kong's judicial and administrative organs like a sword." He warned that "Hong Kong’s worst nightmare has been mapped out" and added that the lack of details on specific criminal actions was "extremely worrying." The NPC approved the Chinese plans on 29 May 2020 and the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) subsequently convened for drafting the details of the law.[12]

In June, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang suggested that anyone who opposed the coming national security law would be disqualified from September's Legislative Council elections. He stressed that it is everyone's duty to safeguard national security, and the imposition of security laws "is only natural". Alvin Yeung described Tsang's comments as a form of "illogical and irresponsible intimidation" to the potential opposition candidates.[13] On 30 June, the NPCSC unanimously passed the national security law without fully disclosing the content of the law. Hours after the news, leading members of the Demosistō Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, Agnes Chow and Jeffrey Ngo announced their departure from the party. The party subsequently announced it would disband on the same day, saying that the resignation of several key members in light of the national security law made it difficult for them to continue their operations.[14] Former Demosistō chairman Nathan Law decided to flee Hong Kong and dropped out from the pro-democracy primaries in response to the security law.[15][16]

Pro-democracy primaries and disqualifications

Main articles: 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries and 2020 Hong Kong LegCo candidates' disqualification controversy

Organised by Benny Tai and former legislator Au Nok-hin and conducted by Power for Democracy, the pro-democracy primaries were held on 11 and 12 July. A total number of 52 people candidates from all over the spectrum in the pro-democracy movement participated in the primaries.[17] Over 590,000 electronic ballots and more than 20,000 paper ballots were recorded throughout the two-day vote, more than 13 per cent of the total number of registered voters and far exceeding the organisers' expected turnout of 170,000 despite the security law and legal threats.[18]

Traditional pro-democrat parties lost grounds to the localist new faces, with many veteran democrats performed much worse than expectation. Democratic Party incumbent Helena Wong only came seventh in her Kowloon West constituency and former legislator "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung of the League of Social Democrats managed only ninth place in New Territories East for which only the top seven candidates would run in the general election.[19] Incumbent legislator Joseph Lee of the Health Services constituency also lost to Winnie Yu of the labour union Hospital Authority Employees Alliance. With many new coming localists emerged on top, an unofficial six-person alliance led by former Demosistō secretary-general Joshua Wong, incumbent legislator Eddie Chu, incumbent District Councillor Lester Shum, former reporter Gwyneth Ho, student activist Sunny Cheung and incumbent District Councillor Tiffany Yuen endorsed by withdrawn candidate Nathan Law, became the biggest winner with all of them coming either top or second in their respective constituencies.[19]

On 30 July one day before the government announcement of delaying the election, 12 opposition candidates' nomination were invalidated by the returning officers, including four incumbent Legislative Council members Alvin Yeung, Kwok Ka-ki, Dennis Kwok and Kenneth Leung and activists Joshua Wong and Ventus Lau. Incumbent District Councillors Cheng Tat-hung, Fergus Leung, Tiffany Yuen and Lester Shum were also barred from running, as well as former reporter Gwyneth Ho and Civic Passion's Cheng Kam-mun which sparked a political storm and a round of international condemnation.[3]

COVID-19 pandemic and postponement

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

The months-long anti-government protests and the alleged initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak cost Carrie Lam's substantial public support. A Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute survey in late January found 75 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with the government's response to the outbreak, while Lam's support rating sunk to nine per cent in late February, the lowest on record for any leader.[20][21] In February 2020, a confidential report by Carrie Lam to the central government revealed that Lam's attempt to win back the public trust and support by effectively handling the coronavirus outbreak in which she believed would serve as a political turnaround for the coming election.[22]

On 5 May, two former Chief Executives Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying launched a pro-Beijing alliance Hong Kong Coalition.[23] The alliance was co-sponsored by 1,545 representatives of various sectors including senior politicians, former government officials, university heads and tycoons. It said it aimed to "get Hong Kong start again" by boosting the declining economy and uniting the divided society. It also announced to give away 10 million face masks across all 18 districts of Hong Kong.[24] Political scientist Ivan Choy believed the alliance was set up as a part of the electioneering of the pro-Beijing camp in the coming election and to support Beijing's Hong Kong policy.[25]

In mid July amid another spike of new confirmed coronavirus cases in the city, Tam Yiu-chung, the sole representative from Hong Kong on NPCSC, suggested that the government should not rule out postponing the upcoming election.[26] Echoed by other pro-Beijing politicians, Tam said elderly people would not go to vote out of fear of being infected. He also noted said many elderly people had migrated to live in the Greater Bay Area and would prefer not to return to Hong Kong to vote, given that the city implemented a 14-day quarantine requirement for incoming travellers, denying any criticism that the pro-Beijing camp was afraid of losing the election. Tanya Chan, Civic Party legislator and convenor of the pro-democracy camp in the legislature, said the pro-Beijing camp was urging the postponement of the LegCo election as they knew they would lose. She noted that many places, including Queensland in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, had run their elections amid the pandemic earlier this year.[27]

On 31 July 2020, Carrie Lam announced the invocation of Emergency Regulations Ordinance to postpone the election, citing the resurgence of the COVID-19 cases.[2] She said that with 4.4 million registered voters in Hong Kong, the elections would involve "a large-scale gathering and an immense infection risk", particularly to elders while social distancing measures would prevent candidates from canvassing, adding that many registered voters in mainland China and oversea would be unable to take part in the elections while border quarantine measures were in place. The pro-democrats who hoped to ride on a wave of deep-seated dissatisfaction with the government accused the government of using the pandemic as a pretext to stop people from voting. Civic Party legislator Tanya Chan suspected pro-Beijing politicians were more concerned about "their own election prospects" rather than "the severity of the pandemic". Joshua Wong wrote on Twitter that the pandemic was being used as "as an excuse to postpone the election" and was "the largest election fraud in #HK's history."[28] Pro-democracy legislator Eddie Chu said that Chinese Communist Party was ordering "a strategic retreat." They "want to avoid a potential devastating defeat" in the election, he wrote on Twitter.[29]

Retiring incumbents

Constituency Departing incumbents Party First elected Remarks
Hong Kong Island Tanya Chan[30] Civic 2008 Barred from running due to her term of imprisonment
Kowloon West Ann Chiang[31] DAB 2012 Did not contest in the intra-party primary
Helena Wong[32] Democratic 2012 Lost the pro-democracy primaries
Kowloon East Wilson Or[33] DAB 2016 Withdrew due to family reason
New Territories West Leung Che-cheung[34] DAB 2012
New Territories East Fernando Cheung[35] Labour 2004
Eunice Yung[36] NPP/CF 2016 Did not contest in the intra-party primary
Health Services Joseph Lee[37]  Professionals Guild 2004 Lost the pro-democracy primaries
Labour Poon Siu-ping[38] FLU 2012
Social Welfare Shiu Ka-chun[30] Independent 2016 Barred from running due to his term of imprisonment
Tourism Yiu Si-wing[39] Independent 2012
Sports, Performing Arts,
Culture and Publication		 Ma Fung-kwok[40] New Forum 1996
Import and Export Wong Ting-kwong[41] DAB 2004
Information Technology Charles Mok[42]  bgcolor="Template:Professional Commons/meta/color | PC/PG 2012
District Council (First) Lau Kwok-fan[43] DAB 2016 Lost his North District Council seat in 2019 DC election
District Council (Second) Leung Yiu-chung[44] NWSC 1995 Withdrew from the pro-democracy primaries

Opinion polling

By camps

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling source Sample size Pro-democracy Pro-Beijing Undecided/Not Voting/Other Lead
15–18 June 2020 HKPORI 1,002 53% 29% 18% 24%
17–20 March 2020 HKPORI 1,001 58% 22% 20% 36%
4 September 2016 2016 election results 55.0% 40.2% (41.7/4.9%) 14.9%

References

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  2. ^ a b "BREAKING: Hong Kong postpones legislative election citing Covid-19". Hong Kong Free Press. 31 July 2020.
  3. ^ a b "Hong Kong bars 12 opposition candidates from election". BBC. 30 July 2020.
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  40. ^ "【立會選戰】霍啟剛時隔八年接父棒戰「體演文出」 嘉賓盼以留住郭晶晶魄力為業界爭取成續". 香港獨立媒體. 2 July 2020.
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