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== Background ==
== Background ==
The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.<ref>MIC/e-gov legal database: [http://law.e-gov.go.jp/htmldata/S25/S25HO100.html 公職選挙法], chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)</ref> As of June 2015, the largest opposition party [[Democratic Party of Japan]] was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the [[Japanese House of Councillors election, 2016|House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016]], before it merged with the [[Japan Innovation Party]] to from the [[Democratic Party (Japan)|Democratic Party]] in March 2016.<ref>{{cite news|title=民主、衆参同日選も想定　年内に候補者170人擁立めざす|url=http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASFS06H23_W5A600C1PE8000/|accessdate=8 June 2015|work=Nihon Keizai Shimbun|date=6 June 2015}}</ref> The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.
The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.<ref>MIC/e-gov legal database: [http://law.e-gov.go.jp/htmldata/S25/S25HO100.html 公職選挙法], chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)</ref> In June 2015, the Public Office Election Law was amended to lower the voting age from 20 to 18 years of age.<ref>{{cite news|title=Japan: Voting Age Lowered from 20 to 18|first=Sayuri|last=Umeda|url=http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/japan-voting-age-lowered-from-20-to-18/|work=Library of Congress}}</ref>
As of June 2015, the largest opposition party [[Democratic Party of Japan]] was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the [[Japanese House of Councillors election, 2016|House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016]], before it merged with the [[Japan Innovation Party]] to from the [[Democratic Party (Japan)|Democratic Party]] in March 2016.<ref>{{cite news|title=民主、衆参同日選も想定　年内に候補者170人擁立めざす|url=http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASFS06H23_W5A600C1PE8000/|accessdate=8 June 2015|work=Nihon Keizai Shimbun|date=6 June 2015}}</ref> The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.


In January 2017, Tokyo Governor [[Yuriko Koike]] established a new local party, [[Tomin First no Kai|Tomin First]], to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the [[Tokyo prefectural election, 2017|Tokyo metropolitan election]] to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the [[Moritomo Gakuen]] and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/world/asia/japan-tokyo-shinzo-abe-election.html|title=Tokyo Voters’ Rebuke Signals Doubt About Shinzo Abe’s Future|last=Rich|first=Motoko|date=2017-07-03|work=The New York Times|access-date=2017-10-09|language=en-US|issn=0362-4331}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://apjjf.org/2017/20/Repeta.html|title=Backstory to Abe’s Snap Election – the Secrets of Moritomo, Kake and the “Missing” Japan SDF Activity Logs|last=Repeta|first=Lawrence|date=2017-10-15|website=The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2017-10-17}}</ref> After the election, Defense Minister [[Tomomi Inada]] resigned in connection with another scandal involving the [[Japan Self-Defense Forces]] concealing evidence of a battle in [[South Sudanese Civil War|South Sudan]].<ref name=":1" /> Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader [[Renhō|Renho]] in July, as well as several high-profile defections.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/asia/japan-abe-election.html|title=Shinzo Abe of Japan Calls Early Election, as a Rival Party Forms|last=Rich|first=Motoko|date=2017-09-25|work=The New York Times|access-date=2017-10-09|language=en-US|issn=0362-4331}}</ref>
In January 2017, Tokyo Governor [[Yuriko Koike]] established a new local party, [[Tomin First no Kai|Tomin First]], to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the [[Tokyo prefectural election, 2017|Tokyo metropolitan election]] to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the [[Moritomo Gakuen]] and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/world/asia/japan-tokyo-shinzo-abe-election.html|title=Tokyo Voters’ Rebuke Signals Doubt About Shinzo Abe’s Future|last=Rich|first=Motoko|date=2017-07-03|work=The New York Times|access-date=2017-10-09|language=en-US|issn=0362-4331}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web|url=http://apjjf.org/2017/20/Repeta.html|title=Backstory to Abe’s Snap Election – the Secrets of Moritomo, Kake and the “Missing” Japan SDF Activity Logs|last=Repeta|first=Lawrence|date=2017-10-15|website=The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=2017-10-17}}</ref> After the election, Defense Minister [[Tomomi Inada]] resigned in connection with another scandal involving the [[Japan Self-Defense Forces]] concealing evidence of a battle in [[South Sudanese Civil War|South Sudan]].<ref name=":1" /> Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader [[Renhō|Renho]] in July, as well as several high-profile defections.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/asia/japan-abe-election.html|title=Shinzo Abe of Japan Calls Early Election, as a Rival Party Forms|last=Rich|first=Motoko|date=2017-09-25|work=The New York Times|access-date=2017-10-09|language=en-US|issn=0362-4331}}</ref>

Revision as of 09:41, 22 October 2017

Japanese general election, 2017
← 2014 22 October 2017
All 465 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan
233 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Shinzō Abe Yuriko Koike Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party Liberal Democratic Kibō no Tō Komeito
Leader since 26 September 2012 25 September 2017 8 September 2009
Leader's seat Yamaguchi-4th Not contesting
(Governor of Tokyo) 		Not contesting
(Councillor)
Last election 291 seats, 33.11% New party 35 seats, 13.71%
Current seats 284 57 34
 
Leader Kazuo Shii Yukio Edano Ichirō Matsui
Party Communist Constitutional Democratic Ishin
Leader since 24 November 2000 2 October 2017 2 November 2015
Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR Saitama-5th Not contesting
(Governor of Osaka)
Last election 21 seats, 11.37% New party New party
Current seats 21 15 14
 
Leader Tadatomo Yoshida Masashi Nakano
Party Social Democratic Japanese Kokoro
Leader since 14 October 2013 30 September 2017
Leader's seat Not contesting Not contesting
(Councillor)
Last election 2 seats, 2.46% 2 seats, 2.65%
Current seats 2 0
Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks
Incumbent Prime Minister

Shinzō Abe
Liberal Democratic



The 48th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第48回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūhachikai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) is due to take place on 22 October 2017. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan – 289 single-member districts and eleven proportional blocks – in order to appoint all 465 members (down from 475) of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the then 707-member bicameral National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the Prime Minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed).

Background

The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.[1] In June 2015, the Public Office Election Law was amended to lower the voting age from 20 to 18 years of age.[2]

As of June 2015, the largest opposition party Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016, before it merged with the Japan Innovation Party to from the Democratic Party in March 2016.[3] The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.

In January 2017, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike established a new local party, Tomin First, to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the Tokyo metropolitan election to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making.[4][5] After the election, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada resigned in connection with another scandal involving the Japan Self-Defense Forces concealing evidence of a battle in South Sudan.[5] Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader Renho in July, as well as several high-profile defections.[6]

The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began publicly discussing the possibility of an election in mid-September 2017, as the North Korea crisis was ongoing. Continuing the momentum of her Tokyo election victory, Koike announced the formation of a new national political party, Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope), on 25 September. Abe called the general election just hours later on the same day.[6] Soon after the Party of Hope was established, Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara sought to merge with Kibō no Tō. Maehara's decision was strongly criticised by the liberal wing of the party, whose candidacies were rejected by Koike. The liberal wing surrounding the deputy president Yukio Edano announced the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan on 2 October 2017.[7] Opposition politicians claim Abe called the election partly to evade further questioning in parliament over his alleged misuse of power in securing approval for a veterinary college campus in Imabari.[8]

One wedge issue between the two major coalitions is the scheduled consumption tax hike in October 2019. The LDP coalition advocates keeping the tax hike and using the funds for child care and education, while the Kibo coalition advocates freezing the tax hike.[9] Nonetheless, Koike stated on 8 October that she was open to the option of a grand coalition with the LDP.[10]

The LDP fielded 332 candidates, while Komeito fielded 53, Kibō no Tō fielded 235, and Nippon Ishin fielded 52. The Constitutional Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party joined forces to support a total number of 342 candidates on the common platform of opposing the revision the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan and the new national security legislation.[11][12]

Several U.S.-Japan policy experts, including James Zumwalt and Michael Green, opined in October that the election was unlikely to have a major impact on policy as the LDP was expected to retain control; however, there was anxiety about the prospect of a leadership vacuum if Abe was eventually forced to resign as head of the LDP.[13]

Contesting parties

Numbers of candidates by party[14]
Party Before election Const. PR Total
bgcolor="Template:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color" | LDP 284 277 313 332
bgcolor="Template:Kibō no Tō/meta/color" | Kibo 57 198 234 235
bgcolor="Template:Komeito/meta/color" | Komei 34 9 44 53
bgcolor="Template:Japanese Communist Party/meta/color" | JCP 21 206 65 243
bgcolor="Template:Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan/meta/color" | CDP 15 63 77 78
bgcolor="Template:Nippon Ishin no Kai/meta/color" | Ishin 14 47 52 52
bgcolor="Template:Social Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color" | SDP 2 19 21 21
bgcolor="Template:The Party for Japanese Kokoro/meta/color" | Kokoro 0 0 2 2
Others 0 44 47 91
bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color" | Ind. 39 73 – 73
Total 472 936 855 1,180

Ruling coalition

Koike's coalition

  • Kibō no Tō, also known as the Party of Hope, is the brand new conservative reformist party launched by Yuriko Koike, former LDP minister and incumbent Governor of Tokyo, on 25 September 2017 ahead of the general election. The new party attracted former members of the LDP as well as the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, the largest opposition party at the time, led by Seiji Maehara to join with the aims of overthrowing the Abe government.[15] Three members of the Ichirō Ozawa's Liberal Party also decided run under Koike's banner. Despite being tipped as the first Japan's woman Prime Minister, Koike has expressed no intention to run in the general election and stated that her party would not name a prime ministerial candidate during the election.[16] The party has promised to freeze the planned consumption tax increase and promote debate on the constitutional revision.[17]
  • Nippon Ishin no Kai, previously known as Initiatives from Osaka, is a Kansai-based party led by Governor of Osaka Ichirō Matsui. It split from the Japan Innovation Party in 2015. Having similar policies with Kibō no Tō, the party has agreed to cooperate with Koike in the coming election.[18]

Liberal coalition

  • The Japanese Communist Party (JCP), the left-wing party led by Kazuo Shii, saw its recent resurgence in the 2014 House of Representative election due to its firm pacifist stance against revision the Article 9 of the Constitution. The party currently is the second largest opposition party, holding 21 seats in the House of Representatives. The party forms an alliance with two other left-leaning parties, the Constitutional Democrats and the Social Democrats, and plans to field 243 candidates.
  • The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), a brand new centre-left social liberal party formed by Yukio Edano on 2 October 2017 by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, the then largest opposition party, after Kibō no Tō refused to nominate the liberal candidates of the Democratic Party when the party leader Seiji Maehara decided to join Kibō no Tō with the party.[19] The party calls for Japan to phase out nuclear power, opposes the constitutional revision and the new national security legislation with two other left-leaning opposition parties. The party plans to field 78 candidates in the coming election.
  • The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is the centre-left social democratic party led by Tadatomo Yoshida which currently holds 2 seats in the House of Representatives. It opposes the revision the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution and forms the alliance with two other left-leaning to stop the constitutional revisionists from winning two-thirds majority.[20]

Others

Opinion polling

Voting intention (PR blocks)

Voting intention (districts)

Party approval

Preferred prime minister

Preferred outcome

Cabinet approval / disapproval ratings

Approval (blue) and Disapproval (red) Ratings for Second and Third Abe Cabinet

Results

Template:Japanese general election, 2017

Notes

  1. ^ This poll is not specific to the PR blocks, but is rather a general voting-intention poll. "At the next elections, what is the party that you would like to vote for, or to which your preferred candidate belongs?".

References

  1. ^ MIC/e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)
  2. ^ Umeda, Sayuri. "Japan: Voting Age Lowered from 20 to 18". Library of Congress.
  3. ^ "民主、衆参同日選も想定　年内に候補者170人擁立めざす". Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 6 June 2015. Retrieved 8 June 2015.
  4. ^ Rich, Motoko (2017-07-03). "Tokyo Voters' Rebuke Signals Doubt About Shinzo Abe's Future". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2017-10-09.
  5. ^ a b Repeta, Lawrence (2017-10-15). "Backstory to Abe's Snap Election – the Secrets of Moritomo, Kake and the "Missing" Japan SDF Activity Logs". The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. Retrieved 2017-10-17. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  6. ^ a b Rich, Motoko (2017-09-25). "Shinzo Abe of Japan Calls Early Election, as a Rival Party Forms". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2017-10-09.
  7. ^ "Former DP heavyweight Yukio Edano seeks to fill void with new liberal-minded party". Japan Times. 2 October 2017.
  8. ^ "Why the LDP keeps winning elections in Japan: pragmatism". The Economist. 12 October 2017.
  9. ^ "2017 Lower House Election / LDP, Kibo to lock horns over consumption tax rate hike". The Japan News. Retrieved 2017-10-09. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  10. ^ "2017 Lower House Election / Koike leaves open scenario of forming coalition with LDP". The Japan News. Retrieved 2017-10-09. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  11. ^ "党派別立候補者数". 日本経済新聞.
  12. ^ "VOTE 2017: Campaigning to kick off for 3-way Lower House election：The Asahi Shimbun". The Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 2017-10-09.
  13. ^ "Japan's 'Nothing'Election: The View From Washington | Politics | Tokyo Business Today". Tokyo Business Today. Retrieved 2017-10-19.
  14. ^ "全国の立候補者". 毎日新聞.
  15. ^ Yoshida, Reiji (28 September 2017). "Democratic Party effectively disbands, throwing support behind Koike's party for Lower House poll". The Japan Times. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  16. ^ "VOTE 2017: Koike refuses to name candidate to replace Abe as prime minister：The Asahi Shimbun". The Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 2017-10-09.
  17. ^ "Tokyo Gov. Koike's upstart party Kibo no To vows to halt tax hike, debate war-renouncing Article 9". Japan Times. 6 October 2017.
  18. ^ "Kibo no To and Osaka's Nippon Ishin in cautious collaboration with wide policy overlap". Japan Times. 6 October 2017.
  19. ^ "VOTE 2017: Edano plans to form new party as liberal force in election". Asahi Shimbun. 2 October 2017.
  20. ^ "Japan's opposition races to assemble slates as tumult persists". SGA. 4 October 2017.
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