2012 Montana gubernatorial election: Difference between revisions
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The '''2012 Montana gubernatorial election''' took place on November 6, 2012. In a close contests analyst xx argues that the Libertarian candidate Ron Vandevender with 3.8% of the vote and 18,160 votes "probably cost Hill the election." Bullock came out on top by 7,571 votes, or 48.9%, to Hill’s 47.3%.<ref>Michael Barone, et al. ''The Almanac of American Politics 2014'' (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245). </ref> |
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The '''2012 Montana gubernatorial election''' took place on November 6, 2012. |
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Term limits in the [[Montana Constitution]] prohibited two-term incumbent governor [[Brian Schweitzer]], a Democrat, from seeking a third term. |
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==Democratic primary== |
==Democratic primary== |
Revision as of 04:02, 20 September 2013
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Elections in Montana |
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The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012. In a close contests analyst xx argues that the Libertarian candidate Ron Vandevender with 3.8% of the vote and 18,160 votes "probably cost Hill the election." Bullock came out on top by 7,571 votes, or 48.9%, to Hill’s 47.3%.[1]
Term limits in the Montana Constitution prohibited two-term incumbent governor Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat, from seeking a third term.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Steve Bullock, State Attorney General[2]
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard[3]
- Heather Margolis, state representative for ServeNext, a community service organization
- Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps[4]
Declined
- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana (did not file)[5]
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman (did not file)[5]
- Larry Jent, state Senator (dropped out)[6]
- Dave Wanzenried, state Senator[7]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative[8]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 28-30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
Total votes | 88,561 | 100 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Fanning, retired businessman[10]
- Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state Representative[11]
- Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor who ran for president as the Constitution Party nominee in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)[12]
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst[15]
- Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state Senator[16]
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[17]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee[18]
- Ken Miller, former state Senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party[19]
- Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner[20]
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County commissioner[21]
- Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol[22]
- Corey Stapleton, former state Senator[23]
- Running mate: Bob Keenan, former state Senate President[24]
Declined
- Jeff Essmann, Montana Senate Majority Leader (dropped out)[25]
- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (running for Senate)[26]
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor (dropped out)[27]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26-29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28-30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
Total votes | 136,060 | 100 |
General election
Candidates
- Steve Bullock (D), state Attorney General
- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. Representative
- Running mate: Jon Sonju, state Senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[28]
- Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[11]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
Montana State University | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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With Bohlinger
With Bullock
With Essmann
With Jent
With Wanzenried
|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 229,965 | 49.06% | −16.41% | |
Republican | Rick Hill | 221,291 | 47.24% | +14.72% | |
Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 17,364 | 3.70% | +1.69% | |
Write-ins | |||||
Margin of victory | 8674 | 1.85% | −31.10% | ||
Turnout | 468,620* | ||||
Democratic hold | Swing |
Note: The ±% column reflects the change in total number of votes won by each party from the previous election. Neither the vote shares or turnout figure account for write-ins.
References
- ^ Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
- ^ Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
- ^ Wanzenried ends run for governor : The Billings Gazette - Montana & Wyoming News
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ a b "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
- ^ a b Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
- ^ Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor : The Billings Gazette - Montana & Wyoming News
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ http://www.greatfallstribune.com/article/20120117/NEWS01/120117001/Turiano-drops-gubernatorial-bid
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/governor/montana/
External links
- Official campaign websites