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In May 2010 [[Entergy]] Corp Chief Executive J. Wayne Leonard said that "building new nuclear plants remains too costly and will prevent many utilities from participating in the fledgling nuclear renaissance in the United States".<ref>[http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64N5S420100524 Entergy says nuclear remains costly] ''Reuters'', May 25 2010.</ref>
In May 2010 [[Entergy]] Corp Chief Executive J. Wayne Leonard said that "building new nuclear plants remains too costly and will prevent many utilities from participating in the fledgling nuclear renaissance in the United States".<ref>[http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64N5S420100524 Entergy says nuclear remains costly] ''Reuters'', May 25 2010.</ref>

In September 2010, Matthew Wald from the ''[[New York Times]]'' suggested that "the nuclear renaissance is looking small and slow at the moment". Other than the [[Vogtle Electric Generating Plant|Vogtle project]], ground has been broken on just one other reactor, in South Carolina. The prospects of a proposed project in Texas, South Texas 3 & 4, have been dimmed by disunity among the partners. Two other reactors in Texas, four in Florida and one in Missouri have all been "moved to the back burner, mostly because of uncertain economics".<ref>Matthew L. Wald. [http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/aid-sought-for-nuclear-plants/ Aid Sought for Nuclear Plants] ''Green'', September 23, 2010.</ref>


===Russia===
===Russia===

Revision as of 01:04, 3 October 2010

For miniatures wargame, see Nuclear Renaissance (wargame).

Since about 2001 the term nuclear renaissance has been used to refer to a possible nuclear power industry revival, driven by rising fossil fuel prices and new concerns about meeting greenhouse gas emission limits. Being able to rely on an uninterrupted domestic supply of electricity is allegedly also a factor. Improvements in nuclear reactor safety, and the public's waning memory of past nuclear accidents (Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986), as well as of the plant construction cost overruns of the 1970s and 80s, are lowering public resistance to new nuclear construction.[1]

At the same time, various barriers to a nuclear renaissance have been identified. These include: unfavourable economics compared to other sources of energy, slowness in addressing climate change, industrial bottlenecks and personnel shortages in nuclear sector, and the unresolved nuclear waste issue. There are also concerns about about more accidents, security, and nuclear weapons proliferation.[2][3][4][5]

New reactors under construction in Finland and France, which were meant to lead a nuclear renaissance, have been delayed and are running over-budget.[6][7][8] China has 20 new reactors under construction,[9] and there are also a considerable number of new reactors being built in South Korea, India, and Russia. At least 100 older and smaller reactors will "most probably be closed over the next 10-15 years".[10]

Overview

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that, as of December 2009, the world had 436 reactors, which is eight units less than the historical peak of 444 in 2002. Since commercial nuclear energy began in the mid-1950s, 2008 was the first year that no new nuclear plant was connected to the grid, although two were connected in 2009.[3][11]

Annual generation of nuclear power has been on a slight downward trend since 2007, decreasing 1.8% in 2009 to 2558 TWh with nuclear power meeting 13-14% of the world's electricity demand.[12][13] A major factor in the decrease has been the prolonged repair of seven large reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan following the Niigata-Chuetsu-Oki earthquake.[12]

According to an article in The Times, the world is expected to build 180 nuclear power plants over the next decade, up from only 39 since 1999.[14] Fifty-two reactors are presently under construction, but several carry over from earlier eras; some are partially completed reactors on which work has resumed (eg., in Argentina); some are small and experimental (eg., Russian floating reactors); and some have been on the IAEA’s “under construction” list for years (eg., in India and Russia).[3] Reactor projects in Eastern Europe are essentially replacing old Soviet reactors shut down due to safety concerns. Most of the current activity ― 30 reactors ― is taking place in four countries: China, India, Russia and South Korea. Iran is the only country which is currently building its first power reactor, but construction began decades ago.[3]

In the 2009 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency stated that:

A nuclear renaissance is possible but cannot occur overnight. Nuclear projects face significant hurdles, including extended construction periods and related risks, long licensing processes and manpower shortages, plus long‐standing issues related to waste disposal, proliferation and local opposition. The financing of new nuclear power plants, especially in liberalised markets, has always been difficult and the financial crisis seems almost certain to have made it even more so. The huge capital requirements, combined with risks of cost overruns and regulatory uncertainties, make investors and lenders very cautious, even when demand growth is robust.[5]

In June 2009, Mark Cooper from the Vermont Law School said: "The highly touted renaissance of nuclear power is based on fiction, not fact... There are numerous options available to meet the need for electricity in a carbon-constrained environment that are superior to building nuclear reactors".[15]

In September 2009, Luc Oursel, chief executive of Areva Nuclear Plants (the core nuclear reactor manufacturing division of Areva) stated: "We are convinced about the nuclear renaissance". Areva has been hiring up to 1,000 people a month, "to prepare for a surge in orders from around the world".[14] However, in June 2010, Standard & Poor's downgraded Areva’s debt rating to BBB+ due to weakened profitability.[16]

In 2010, Trevor Findlay from The Centre for International Governance Innovation stated that "despite some powerful drivers and clear advantages, a revival of nuclear energy faces too many barriers compared to other means of generating electricity for it to capture a growing market share to 2030".[17]

In January 2010, the International Solar Energy Society stated that "... it appears that the pace of nuclear plant retirements will exceed the development of the few new plants now being contemplated, so that nuclear power may soon start on a downward trend. It will remain to be seen if it has any place in an affordable future world energy policy".[18]

In March 2010, Steve Kidd from the World Nuclear Association said: "Proof of whether the mooted nuclear renaissance is merely 'industry hype' as some commentators suggest or reality will come over the next decade".[19]

In August 2010, physicist Michael Dittmar stated that: "Nuclear fission's contribution to total electric energy has decreased from about 18 per cent a decade ago to about 14 per cent in 2008. On a worldwide scale, nuclear energy is thus only a small component of the global energy mix and its share, contrary to widespread belief, is not on the rise".[10]

Economics

Main article: Relative cost of electricity generated by different sources
See also: Economics of new nuclear power plants

Nuclear power plants are large construction projects with very high up-front costs. The cost of capital is also steep due to the risk involved.[20][21] The economic cost of nuclear power has been a key barrier to the construction of new reactors around the world, and the economics have recently worsened, as a result of the global financial crisis.[21][20][22] As the OECD’s Nuclear Energy Agency points out, "investors tend to favor less capital intensive and more flexible technologies".[20]

Accidents and safety

Main articles: Nuclear accidents and Nuclear safety
See also: Nuclear safety in the United States and List of nuclear accidents

Nuclear safety standards have markedly improved since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and its "dramatic demonstration of radioactive cross-boundary effects".[23] Industry has become more safety conscious, aware that "a major nuclear accident anywhere is a major accident everywhere" which could end prospects for a nuclear renaissance. Nevertheless, "alarming incidents continue to occur" even in a well regulated industry like that of the U.S.[23]

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there has been heightened concern that nuclear power plants may be targeted by terrorists or criminals, and that nuclear materials may be purloined for use in nuclear or radiological weapons.[24]

Controversy

Main articles: Nuclear power debate and Anti-nuclear movement
See also: Nuclear power proposed as renewable energy

A nuclear power controversy[25][26][27] has surrounded the deployment and use of nuclear fission reactors to generate electricity from nuclear fuel for civilian purposes. The controversy peaked during the 1970s and 1980s, when it "reached an intensity unprecedented in the history of technology controversies", in some countries.[28][29]

In recent years there have been reports of a revival of the anti-nuclear movement in Germany[30][31][32] and protests in France during 2004 and 2007.[33][34][35] In the United States, there have been protests about, and criticism of, several new nuclear reactor proposals[36][37][38] and some objections to license renewals for existing nuclear plants.[39][40] At the same time some environmentalists have adopted a more pro-nuclear stance.

Public opinion

In 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency presented the results of a series of public opinion surveys in the Global Public Opinion on Nuclear Issues report.[41] Majorities of respondents in 14 of the 18 countries surveyed believe that the risk of terrorist acts involving radioactive materials at nuclear facilities is high, because of insufficient protection. While majorities of citizens generally support the continued use of existing nuclear power reactors, most people do not favour the building of new nuclear plants, and 25% of respondents feel that all nuclear power plants should be closed down.[41] Stressing the climate change benefits of nuclear energy positively influences 10% of people to be more supportive of expanding the role of nuclear power in the world, but there is still a general reluctance to support the building of more nuclear power plants.[41]

By region and country

Main articles: Nuclear power by country and Nuclear energy policy by country

United States

See also: Nuclear power in the United States and List of prospective nuclear units in the United States

As of March 2010, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expected proposals for 26 new reactors in the U.S.[42] However, several license applications filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for proposed new reactors have been suspended or cancelled.[43][44][45][46]

The 2005 Energy Policy Act authorized $18.5 billion in loan guarantees for the first of the nuclear plants, and in February 2010 the Obama administration approved a $8 billion loan guarantee for the construction of two nuclear reactors in the state of Georgia. If the project goes forward, these would be the first plants built in the United States since the 1970s.[47]

In January 2010, President Obama moved to further promote nuclear power in the United States, proposing to triple federal loan guarantees for new power plant projects and appointing a high-level panel to study nuclear waste disposal options.[48]

However, concerns still exist - primarily over potential cost overruns in the first plants (the reason for increasing the federal loan guarantees, so as to build more) and in the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel (in the wake of the effective cancellation of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository).[49] Concerns over the operation of Three Mile Island-era plants also continue to be a factor.[50]

In March 2010, Exelon withdrew its application for a construction and operating license for a twin-unit nuclear plant in Victoria County, Texas, citing lower electricity demand projections. The decision left the country’s largest nuclear operator without a direct role in what the nuclear industry hopes is an expansion of nuclear power in the USA. In August 2010, Exelon bought John Deere Renewables, and is moving into wind power.[51]

In May 2010 Entergy Corp Chief Executive J. Wayne Leonard said that "building new nuclear plants remains too costly and will prevent many utilities from participating in the fledgling nuclear renaissance in the United States".[52]

In September 2010, Matthew Wald from the New York Times suggested that "the nuclear renaissance is looking small and slow at the moment". Other than the Vogtle project, ground has been broken on just one other reactor, in South Carolina. The prospects of a proposed project in Texas, South Texas 3 & 4, have been dimmed by disunity among the partners. Two other reactors in Texas, four in Florida and one in Missouri have all been "moved to the back burner, mostly because of uncertain economics".[53]

Russia

Main article: Nuclear power in Russia

In April 2010 Russia announced new plans to start building 10 new nuclear reactors in the next year.[54]

Europe

Main article: Nuclear power in the European Union

New reactors under construction in Finland (see Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant) and France, which were meant to lead a nuclear renaissance, have been delayed and are running over-budget.[6][7][8]

The plan to build at least one new nuclear power plant in the U.K. by 2017 will not be fulfilled, as the waiting list for pressure vessels (which are at the centre of a nuclear power plant) is too long.[55]

Austria, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Poland and Ireland have no active nuclear plants and none under construction, though "some have plans of varying credibility".[56]

Asia

As of 2008, the greatest growth in nuclear generation was expected to be in China, Japan, South Korea and India.[57]

As of early 2010 China had 11 nuclear reactors operating and 20 under construction, with more about to start construction soon. "China is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle."[58]

India plans to supply 25% of its electricity by nuclear power by 2050.[59]

South Korea is exploring nuclear projects with a number of nations.[60]

Middle East

In December 2009 South Korea won a contract for four nuclear power plants to be built in the United Arab Emirates, for operation in 2017 to 2020.[61] [62]

Africa

As of March 2010, ten African nations had begun exploring plans to build nuclear reactors.[63][64]

South Africa (which has two nuclear power reactors), however, removed government funding for its planned new PBMRs in February 2010, pending a decision on the project in August.

South America

In April 2010 Russia agreed to assist Venezuela in obtaining nuclear power.[65]

See also

References

  1. ^ The Nuclear Renaissance (by the World Nuclear Association)
  2. ^ Trevor Findlay. The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation February 4, 2010.
  3. ^ a b c d Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, pp. 10-11.
  4. ^ M.V. Ramana. Nuclear Power: Economic, Safety, Health, and Environmental Issues of Near-Term Technologies, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2009, 34, pp. 144-145.
  5. ^ a b International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2009, p. 160.
  6. ^ a b James Kanter. In Finland, Nuclear Renaissance Runs Into Trouble New York Times, May 28, 2009.
  7. ^ a b James Kanter. Is the Nuclear Renaissance Fizzling? Green, 29 May 2009.
  8. ^ a b Rob Broomby. Nuclear dawn delayed in Finland BBC News, 8 July 2009.
  9. ^ Nuclear Power in China
  10. ^ a b Michael Dittmar. Taking stock of nuclear renaissance that never was Sydney Morning Herald, August 18, 2010.
  11. ^ Mycle Schneider, Steve Thomas, Antony Froggatt, and Doug Koplow (August 2009). The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 Commissioned by German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety, p. 5.
  12. ^ a b World Nuclear Association. Another drop in nuclear generation World Nuclear News, 05 May 2010.
  13. ^ Nuclear decline set to continue, says report Nuclear Engineering International, 27 August 2009.
  14. ^ a b Areva rushes to hire workers as demand for nuclear reactors explodes
  15. ^ Mark Cooper. The Economics of Nuclear Reactors: Renaissance or Relapse? Vermont Law School, June 2009, p. 1 and p. 8.
  16. ^ Dorothy Kosich (29 Jun 2010). "S&P downgrades French nuclear-uranium giant AREVA on weakened profitability". Mineweb. Retrieved 6 July 2010.
  17. ^ Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, p. 9.
  18. ^ Donald W. Aitken. Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future, International Solar Energy Society, January 2010, p. 8.
  19. ^ Stephen W. Kidd. WNA Director: Nuclear Reborn? Nuclear Street, March 11, 2010.
  20. ^ a b c M.V. Ramana. Nuclear Power: Economic, Safety, Health, and Environmental Issues of Near-Term Technologies, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2009. 34, p. 130.
  21. ^ a b Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, p. 14.
  22. ^ Mark Cooper. The Economics of Nuclear Reactors: Renaissance or Relapse? Vermont Law School, June 2009.
  23. ^ a b Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, p. 23.
  24. ^ Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, p. 26.
  25. ^ James J. MacKenzie. Review of The Nuclear Power Controversy by Arthur W. Murphy The Quarterly Review of Biology, Vol. 52, No. 4 (Dec., 1977), pp. 467-468.
  26. ^ J. Samuel Walker (2004). Three Mile Island: A Nuclear Crisis in Historical Perspective (Berkeley: University of California Press), pp. 10-11.
  27. ^ In February 2010 the nuclear power debate played out on the pages of the New York Times, see A Reasonable Bet on Nuclear Power and Revisiting Nuclear Power: A Debate and A Comeback for Nuclear Power?
  28. ^ Herbert P. Kitschelt. Political Opportunity and Political Protest: Anti-Nuclear Movements in Four Democracies British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1986, p. 57.
  29. ^ Jim Falk (1982). Global Fission: The Battle Over Nuclear Power, Oxford University Press.
  30. ^ The Renaissance of the Anti-Nuclear Movement Spiegel Online, 11/10/2008.
  31. ^ Anti-Nuclear Protest Reawakens: Nuclear Waste Reaches German Storage Site Amid Fierce Protests Spiegel Online, 11/11/2008.
  32. ^ Simon Sturdee. Police break up German nuclear protest The Age, November 11, 2008.
  33. ^ Thousands march in Paris anti-nuclear protest ABC News, January 18, 2004.
  34. ^ "French protests over EPR". Nuclear Engineering International. 2007-04-03. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  35. ^ "France hit by anti-nuclear protests". Evening Echo. 2007-04-03. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  36. ^ Protest against nuclear reactor Chicago Tribune, October 16, 2008.
  37. ^ Southeast Climate Convergence occupies nuclear facility Indymedia UK, August 8, 2008.
  38. ^ Anti-Nuclear Renaissance: A Powerful but Partial and Tentative Victory Over Atomic Energy
  39. ^ Maryann Spoto. Nuclear license renewal sparks protest Star-Ledger, June 02, 2009.
  40. ^ Anti-nuclear protesters reach capitol Rutland Herald, January 14, 2010.
  41. ^ a b c International Atomic Energy Agency (2005). Global Public Opinion on Nuclear Issues and the IAEA: Final Report from 18 Countries pp. 6-7.
  42. ^ New Reactors
  43. ^ Eileen O'Grady. Entergy says nuclear remains costly Reuters, May 25, 2010.
  44. ^ Nuke plant is, well, nuked. Not gonna happen
  45. ^ Terry Ganey. AmerenUE pulls plug on project Columbia Daily Tribune, April 23, 2009.
  46. ^ TVA plan for Ala. nuclear plant drops to 1 reactor
  47. ^ A Comeback for Nuclear Power? New York Times, February 16, 2010.
  48. ^ Matthew L. Wald. Nuclear Power Gets Strong Push From White House The New York Times, January 29, 2010.
  49. ^ Stephanie Hemphill. Former regulator at Capitol argues against repeal of nuclear ban Minnesota Public Radio, February 8, 2010.
  50. ^ Mark Williams. Costs, Plant Age Obstacles to Nuclear Renaissance ABC News, February 25, 2010.
  51. ^ Matthew L. Wald. A Nuclear Giant Moves Into Wind The New York Times, August 31, 2010.
  52. ^ Entergy says nuclear remains costly Reuters, May 25 2010.
  53. ^ Matthew L. Wald. Aid Sought for Nuclear Plants Green, September 23, 2010.
  54. ^ Russia prioritizes development of nuclear energy
  55. ^ No Sheffield Forgemasters loan, no new nuclear by 2017 The Guardian, 18 June 2010.
  56. ^ Michael R. James. Nuclear economics just don't add up The Age, December 23, 2009.
  57. ^ Asia's Nuclear Energy Growth
  58. ^ Nuclear Power in China
  59. ^ Nuclear Power in India
  60. ^ South Korea’s nuclear ambitions
  61. ^ Seoul's U.A.E. Deal Caps Big Sales Push
  62. ^ A new nuclear reactor nucleus
  63. ^ Africa looks to nuclear power
  64. ^ Africa and nuclear
  65. ^ [1]

Further reading

See also: List of books about nuclear issues and List of films about nuclear issues
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