2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania: Difference between revisions
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*[[Steve Daines]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Montana]] (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Mutnick |first=Ally |date=2023-09-21 |title=This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate. |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-race-00117545 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230922151645/https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-race-00117545 |archive-date=2023-09-22 |access-date=2023-09-22 |website=POLITICO |language=en}}</ref> |
*[[Steve Daines]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Montana]] (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Mutnick |first=Ally |date=2023-09-21 |title=This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate. |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-race-00117545 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230922151645/https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-race-00117545 |archive-date=2023-09-22 |access-date=2023-09-22 |website=POLITICO |language=en}}</ref> |
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*[[Mitch McConnell]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Kentucky]] (1985–present) and [[Senate Minority Leader]] (2007–2015, 2021–present)<ref>{{cite web | url=https://about.bgov.com/news/mccormicks-second-senate-try-hinges-on-fitting-a-changed-gop/ | title=McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP | date=May 24, 2023 }}</ref> |
*[[Mitch McConnell]], [[U.S. Senator]] from [[Kentucky]] (1985–present) and [[Senate Minority Leader]] (2007–2015, 2021–present)<ref>{{cite web | url=https://about.bgov.com/news/mccormicks-second-senate-try-hinges-on-fitting-a-changed-gop/ | title=McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP | date=May 24, 2023 }}</ref> |
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;State officials |
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*[[Brian Kemp]], [[Georgia governor]] (2019-present) <ref> {{cite web | url= https://x.com/briankempga/status/1705234429117874479?s=46&t=yljaLGogLafP7IiyWDAC6g }}</ref> |
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;U.S Representatives |
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*[[Mike Gallagher]], [[U.S. Representative]] from [[WI-08]] (2017-present)<ref>https://twitter.com/MikeforWI/status/1705031922890465565</ref> |
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;State Legislators |
;State Legislators |
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*[[Doug Mastriano]], [[Pennsylvania State Senate|state senator]] for [[Pennsylvania Senate, District 33|SD-33]] (2019–present) <ref name=":0" /> |
*[[Doug Mastriano]], [[Pennsylvania State Senate|state senator]] for [[Pennsylvania Senate, District 33|SD-33]] (2019–present) <ref name=":0" /> |
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Revision as of 20:48, 22 September 2023
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will take place on April 23, 2024.[1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.[2]
Background
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016.[3][4][5][6]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[7][8][9]
The race is considered to be favoring Casey, but analysts still consider this race to be amongst the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[10]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator (2007–present)[11]
Endorsements
Bob Casey
- Executive officials
- Patrick Murphy, Acting Secretary of the Army (2016), former U.S. Representative for PA-8 (2007–2011)[12]
- U.S. Senators
- John Fetterman, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present)[13]
- U.S. Representatives
- Chris Carney, PA-10 (2007–2011)[12]
- Chris Deluzio, PA-17 (2023–present)[13]
- Chrissy Houlahan, PA-6 (2019–present)[12]
- Conor Lamb, PA-17 (2018–2023)[12]
- Statewide officials
- Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)[13]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[14]
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[15]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[16]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[17]
- League of Conservation Voters[18]
- Let America Vote[15]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
- NextGen America PAC[14]
- Peace Action[20]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $11,211,805 | $5,793,288 | $5,906,535 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[22] | |||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- David McCormick, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[23][24]
Potential
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2021–present)[25]
- Keith Rothfus, former U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)[26]
- Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[25]
Declined
- Kathy Barnette, political commentator, nominee for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2020, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[27]
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022[28]
Endorsements
David McCormick
- U.S Senators
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[29]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–present)[30]
- State officials
- Brian Kemp, Georgia governor (2019-present) [31]
- U.S Representatives
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. Representative from WI-08 (2017-present)[32]
- State Legislators
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for SD-33 (2019–present) [24]
- Sam DeMarco, Allegheny County councilor and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party[33]
- Organizations
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Doug Mastriano |
David McCormick |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
| – | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Lean D | January 24, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Tilt D | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Likely D | January 24, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[38] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
- Bob Casey Jr. vs. David McCormick
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
David McCormick (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
| Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Notes
References
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". POLITICO. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Lyons, Kim (July 26, 2023). "Casey campaign gets a boost from Pennsylvania veterans' coalition". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ a b c Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- ^ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
- ^ "USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennslyvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- ^ a b Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ a b "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
- ^ Egger, Andrew; Drucker, David; Fahlberg, Audrey (April 17, 2023). "Arizona GOP Primary Gets First Major Contender". The Dispatch. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally (September 21, 2023). "This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate". POLITICO. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ "McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP". May 24, 2023.
- ^ https://x.com/briankempga/status/1705234429117874479?s=46&t=yljaLGogLafP7IiyWDAC6g.
{{cite web}}: Missing or empty|title=(help) - ^ https://twitter.com/MikeforWI/status/1705031922890465565
- ^ Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
- ^ Emilee (July 19, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races". AFP Action. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites