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#REDIRECT [[Fossil fuel phase-out]] {{R from merge}}
[[Image:Hubbert curve.svg|thumb|The standard [[Hubbert curve]], plotting crude oil production of a region over time.]]
[[Image:World energy consumption, 1970-2025, EIA.png|right|thumb|World energy consumption, 1970–2025. ''Source: International Energy Outlook 2004.'']]
{{Sustainable energy}}

The '''mitigation of peak oil''' is the attempt to delay the date and minimize the social and economic effects of [[peak oil]] by reducing the [[oil consumption|consumption]] of and [[oil dependence|reliance]] on [[petroleum]]. By reducing petroleum consumption, mitigation efforts seek to favorably change the shape of the [[Hubbert curve]], which is the graph of real oil production over time predicted by [[Hubbert peak theory]]. The peak of this curve is known as peak oil, and by changing the shape of the curve, the timing of the peak in oil production is affected. An analysis by the author of the [[Hirsch report]] showed that while the shape of the oil production curve can be affected by mitigation efforts, mitigation efforts are also affected by the shape of Hubbert curve.<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/Peak_Shape_Study.pdf
|title=The Shape of World Oil Peaking: Learning From Experience
|author=Robert L. Hirsch
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-date=2007-06-21
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070621143225/http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/Peak_Shape_Study.pdf
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

For the most part, mitigation involves [[energy conservation|fuel conservation]], and the use of [[alternative energy|alternative]] and [[renewable energy]] sources. The development of [[unconventional oil]] resources can extend the supply of petroleum,<ref name="BartisBoston">{{cite web
|url=http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Bartis_J_Boston_2006.pdf
|title=Unconventional Liquid Fuels Overview. 2006 Boston World Oil Conference
|author=Jim Bartis, [[RAND|RAND Corporation]]
|publisher=Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA
|year=2006
|access-date=2007-06-28
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110721161801/http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Bartis_J_Boston_2006.pdf
|archive-date=2011-07-21
}}
</ref> but does not reduce consumption.

Historically, world oil consumption data show that mitigation efforts during the [[1973 energy crisis|1973]] and [[1979 energy crisis|1979 oil shocks]] lowered oil consumption, while general [[recession]]s since the 1970s have had no effect on curbing the oil consumption until 2007.{{citation needed|date = November 2016}} In the United States, oil consumption declines in reaction to high prices.<ref name="Frank Langfitt">{{cite news
| url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270
| title=Americans Using Less Gasoline
| publisher=NPR
| date=March 5, 2008
| author=Frank Langfitt
| access-date=April 2, 2018
| archive-date=August 27, 2009
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090827053651/http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270
| url-status=live
}}</ref><ref name="Marianne Lavelle">{{cite magazine
| url=https://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html
| title=Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't
| magazine=U.S. News & World Report
| date=March 4, 2008
| author=Marianne Lavelle
| access-date=September 5, 2017
| archive-date=October 12, 2008
| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081012021002/http://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html
| url-status=live
}}</ref>

Key questions for mitigation are the viability of methods, the roles of government and private sector and how early these solutions are implemented.<ref>{{cite web
|url=https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060220-1.html
|title=President Discusses Advanced Energy Initiative In Milwaukee
|access-date=2017-09-05
|archive-date=2017-10-05
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171005203058/https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060220-1.html
|url-status=live
}}</ref><ref>
{{cite web
|url=http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/vig_06/general_06/pdf/proposition_87/entire_prop87.pdf
|title=Proposition 87
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070614050616/http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/vig_06/general_06/pdf/proposition_87/entire_prop87.pdf
|archive-date=2007-06-14
}}</ref> The responses to such questions and steps taken towards mitigation may determine whether or not the [[lifestyle (sociology)|lifestyle]] of a society can be maintained, and may affect the [[carrying capacity|population capacity]] of the planet.

==Alternative energy==
The most effective method of mitigating peak oil is to use [[renewable energy|renewable]] or [[alternative energy]] sources in place of petroleum.

[[Nuclear power]], considered by some to be a viable alternative source, can be substituted for petroleum in some cases. [[China]] is preparing for the post-peak oil future by building [[pebble bed reactors]] configured to produce [[hydrogen fuel]] from the [[electrolysis of water]]. The use of nuclear power is often a highly contentious issue because of [[peak uranium|questions of the future availability of fuel]] and the dangerous nature of [[nuclear waste]]. Some current research projects are focused on [[Aneutronic fusion|neutron-free fusion power]], in which [[hydrogen]] and [[boron]] are heated to over 1 billion degrees,<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.progressiveengineer.com/PEWebBackissues2002/PEWeb%2028%20Jul%2002-2/28editor.htm
|title=Stop the Suppression of an Alternative Energy Source
|author=Eric Lerner
|publisher=[[Progressive Engineer]]
|author-link=Eric Lerner
|access-date=2008-04-22
|archive-date=2008-02-14
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080214092314/http://www.progressiveengineer.com/PEWebBackissues2002/PEWeb%2028%20Jul%2002-2/28editor.htm
|url-status=live
}}</ref> though technical and economic barriers still exist.

In its October 2009 peak oil report, the Government-supported [[UK Energy Research Centre]] warned of the risk that 'rising [[Price of petroleum|oil prices]] will encourage the rapid development of [[carbon intensity|carbon-intensive]] alternatives which will make it difficult or impossible to [[Avoiding dangerous climate change|prevent dangerous climate change]]<ref name=UKERC-Oct09>[http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=0910GlobalOilRelease UKERC Report Finds ‘Significant Risk’ of Oil Production Peaking in Ten Years] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091018120151/http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=0910GlobalOilRelease |date=2009-10-18 }}, October 08, 2009, [[UK Energy Research Centre]]</ref> and stated that 'early investment in [[alternative energy|low-carbon alternatives]] to conventional oil is of considerable importance' in avoiding this scenario.<ref>[http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=283 Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091012004031/http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=283 |date=2009-10-12 }}, page xi, August 2009, published October 08, 2009, [[UK Energy Research Centre]], {{ISBN|1-903144-03-5}}</ref>

Iceland was the first country to suggest transitioning to [[100% renewable energy]], using hydrogen for vehicles and its fishing fleet, in 1998, but the actual progress has been very limited.<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.rio02.com/proceedings/pdf/031_Gissuarson.pdf |title=Implementation of Green Bookkeeping at Reykjavik Energy |access-date=2016-05-22 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120617131226/http://www.rio02.com/proceedings/pdf/031_Gissuarson.pdf |archive-date=2012-06-17 |url-status=dead }}</ref>

==Transportation fuel use==
Because most oil is consumed for [[transportation]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_33.html |title=EIA - International Energy Outlook 2007 - Figure 33<!-- Bot generated title --> |access-date=2007-08-24 |archive-date=2007-10-12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012044344/http://eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_33.html |url-status=live }}</ref> most mitigation discussions revolve around transportation issues.

===Fuel substitution===
{{Main|Future energy development}}
While there is some interchangeability, the alternative energy sources available tend to depend on whether the fuel is being used in static or mobile applications.

====Biofuel====
{{Main|Biofuel}}
The use of biofuels, which are [[fuel]]s derived from recently dead [[biotic material|biological material]], reduces dependence on petroleum and enhances [[Energy security and renewable technology|energy security]]. Biofuels also play significant roles in the "[[food vs fuel]]" debate, mitigation of [[oil prices]], and energy balance and efficiency.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.epa.gov/smartway/growandgo/documents/faq.htm#i_05|title=SmartWay Grow & Go}}</ref> [[Ethanol]] is a biofuel produced from crops high in sugar (e.g., [[sugar cane]], [[sweet sorghum]])<ref>[http://www.energycurrent.com/?id=3&storyid=10539 ICRISAT: Sweet sorghum balances food and fuel needs] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090104190936/http://www.energycurrent.com/?id=3&storyid=10539 |date=2009-01-04 }}</ref> or [[starch]], (corn/[[maize]]). Biofuels can also be produced from plants that contain high amounts of [[vegetable oil]], such as [[oil palm]], [[soybean]], [[algae]], [[switchgrass]], or [[jatropha]]. These oils can be burned directly in certain designs of [[diesel engines]], or they can be chemically processed to produce fuels such as [[biodiesel]]. Wood and its byproducts can also be converted into biofuels such as [[woodgas]], [[methanol fuel|methanol]] or [[ethanol fuel]].<ref name="forestry biofuels">{{cite journal|last=Pu|first=Yunqiao|author2=Dongcheng Zhang|author3=Preet M. Singh|author4=Arthur J. Ragauskas|date=December 19, 2007|title=The new forestry biofuels sector|journal=Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining|volume=2|issue=1|pages=58–73|url=http://www.biofpr.com|doi=10.1002/bbb.48|s2cid=85864772 |access-date=November 23, 2021|archive-date=November 23, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211123175809/http://www.biofpr.com/|url-status=live}}</ref> It is also possible to make [[cellulosic ethanol]] from non-edible plant parts, but this can be difficult to accomplish economically. Biofuels are most commonly used in [[#Liquid fuels for transportation|vehicles]], and in heating homes, and [[Kitchen stove|cooking]]. Biofuel industries are expanding in [[Europe]], [[Asia]] and the [[Americas]].

Several firms have successfully created petroleum products in the lab using either solid catalysts or genetically modified microorganisms.<ref>[http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11565647 Grow your own - The biofuels of the future will be tailor-made] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080702171404/http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11565647 |date=2008-07-02 }}, [[The Economist]], June 19th 2008</ref><ref>[http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/4270240.html?series=19 For Future of Biofuel, Secret of MPG Ooze Lies in Mutant Bacteria] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080702120519/http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/4270240.html?series=19 |date=2008-07-02 }}, [[Popular Mechanics]], June 24, 2008</ref> As of July, 2008, such firms are producing petroleum products in very small quantities, but hope to increase production over the next few years.<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/biogasoline-virent.php |title=Biogasoline: The Greener Alternative to Ethanol? |access-date=2008-07-02 |archive-date=2008-06-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080601181336/http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/biogasoline-virent.php |url-status=live }}</ref>

====Static installations====
The substitution of oil with other [[fossil fuel]]s is theoretically relatively easy when static installations are concerned, as in the case for [[electricity generation]]. Reserves of [[coal]] are substantial, and the technology to use it is well established. Increasing the use of coal, however, would lead to higher [[carbon emissions]] which is likely to be politically unacceptable in many countries due to the implications of [[global warming]], although [[carbon capture and storage]] may provide a solution. [[Natural gas]] is another alternative, and [[combined cycle]] power generation using natural gas is the cleanest source of power available using fossil fuels, producing about 30% less [[carbon dioxide]] than burning [[petroleum]] and about 45% less than burning [[coal]].<ref>
{{cite web
|url=http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp#greenhouse/
|title=Natural Gas and the Environment
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090503132200/http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp
|archive-date=2009-05-03
}}</ref> The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is [[transport]]ation and [[Natural gas storage|storage]] because of its low density. Natural gas [[pipeline transport|pipelines]] are economical, but are impractical across [[ocean]]s.

====Mobile applications====
{{See also|Biofuel|Hydrogen economy|Methanol economy|Hydrogen-powered aircraft}}
Due to its high [[energy density]] and [[Liquid fuels|ease of handling]], oil has a unique role as a [[transportation]] fuel. There are, however, a number of possible alternatives. Among the [[biofuel]]s the use of [[bioethanol]] and [[biodiesel]] is already established to some extent in some countries.

The use of [[hydrogen fuel]] is another alternative under development in various countries, alongside, [[hydrogen vehicle]]s<ref name="California Hydrogen">{{cite web|url=http://www.hydrogenhighway.ca.gov|title=California Hydrogen Activities|date=November 26, 2012|work=[[California Hydrogen Highway]]|publisher=[[California Environmental Protection Agency]]|access-date=9 September 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130123233053/http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/hydrogen/hydrogen.htm|archive-date=2013-01-23}}</ref> though hydrogen is actually an energy storage medium, not a [[primary energy]] source, and consequently the use of a non-petroleum source would be required to extract the hydrogen for use. Though hydrogen is currently outperformed in terms of cost and efficiency by battery powered vehicles{{Citation needed|date=August 2009}}, there are applications where it would come in useful. Short haul ferries and very cold climates are two examples. Hydrogen fuel cells are about a third as efficient as batteries and double the efficiency of gasoline vehicles.

Electric vehicles powered by batteries are another alternative, and these have the advantage of having the highest well-to-wheels efficiency rate of any energy pathway and thus would allow much greater numbers of vehicles than any other methods. In addition, even if the electricity was sourced from coal-fired power plants, two advantages would remain: first it is cheaper to [[Carbon sequestration|sequester carbon]] from a few thousand smokestacks than it is to retrofit hundreds of millions of vehicles, and second encouraging the use of electric vehicles allows a further pathway for scaling up of [[renewable energy]] sources.

Currently the cost of batteries capable powering electric vehicles for a {{convert|300|mi|km|adj=on}} range (comparable to the range of many gasoline vehicles) is prohibitively high, though producing batteries for [[plug-in hybrid]]s with a {{convert|40|mi|km|adj=on}} range could be done with current technology and current pricing models within the reach of the average person. A plug-in hybrid with a {{convert|40|mi|km|adj=on}} range would have the advantage that it uses no gasoline or diesel at all for the first 40 miles (a distance covering 80% of all vehicle commutes).

Unfortunately there are currently no production models of plug-in hybrids or [[alternative fuel vehicle]]s (other than [[flex fuel]]) available from big manufacturers, though both [[Toyota]] and [[General Motors]] have promised versions around 2010. Fully electric vehicles are available from [[Tesla Motors]] for their high priced sports car and also a small city vehicle from [[Th!nk]] in Norway, in limited production runs in Norway and the UK.

====Alternative aviation fuel====
The [[Airbus A380]] flew on alternative fuel for the first time on 1 February 2008.{{citation needed |date=December 2011}} [[Boeing]] also plans to use alternative fuel on the [[Boeing 747|747]].<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.gizmag.com/go/8133/ |title=Boeing announce plans to accelerate bio-jet fuel development |date=8 October 2007 |access-date=2008-07-02 |archive-date=2008-07-06 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080706051314/http://www.gizmag.com/go/8133/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Because some biofuels such as ethanol contains less energy, more "tankstops" might be necessary for such planes.

The US Air Force is currently in the process of certifying its entire fleet to run on a 50/50 blend of synthetic fuel derived from the [[Fischer–Tropsch process]] and [[JP-8]] jet fuel.<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.safie.hq.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123064095
|title=SECAF certifies synthetic fuel blends for B-52H
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303181957/http://www.safie.hq.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123064095
|archive-date=2016-03-03
}}</ref>

===Conservation===
When alternative fuels are not available, the development of more energy efficient [[vehicle]]s becomes an important mitigant. Some ways of decreasing the oil used in transportation include increasing the use of [[bicycles]], [[public transport]], [[carpooling]], [[battery electric vehicle|electric vehicles]], and [[Diesel engine|diesel]] and [[hybrid vehicles]] with higher [[Fuel economy in automobiles|fuel efficiency]].

More comprehensive mitigations include better land use planning through [[smart growth]] to reduce the need for private transportation, increased capacity and use of [[Public transport|mass transit]], [[vanpool]]ing and [[carpool]]ing,<ref name="ieareport">{{cite web | url=http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/SavingOilSUM.pdf | title=Saving Oil Executive Summary | publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] | archive-date=2007-06-05 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070605055727/http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/SavingOilSUM.pdf | url-status=live}}</ref> [[bus rapid transit]], [[remote work]], and [[human-powered transport]] from current levels.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_38.html | title=Principal Means of Transportation to Work | publisher=[[Bureau of Transportation Statistics]] |archive-date=2007-07-14 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070714162656/http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_38.html | url-status=live }}</ref> Rationing and driving bans are also forms of reducing private transportation.<ref name="ieareport"/> The [[oil price increases since 2003|higher oil prices of 2007 and 2008]] caused United States drivers to begin driving less in 2007 and to a much greater extent in the first three months of 2008.<ref name="Frank Langfitt"/><ref name="Marianne Lavelle"/>

In order to deal with potential problems from peak oil, [[Colin Campbell (geologist)|Colin Campbell]] has proposed the [[Rimini protocol]], a plan which among other things would require countries to balance oil consumption with their current production.

==Unconventional oil==
{{Main|Unconventional oil}}
Unconventional oil is oil produced or extracted using techniques other than the traditional [[oil well]] method from sources such as [[oil sand]]s, [[oil shale]] and the conversion of [[coal]] or [[natural gas]] to liquid [[hydrocarbons]] through processes such as [[Fischer–Tropsch process|Fischer–Tropsch synthesis]]. Currently, unconventional oil production is less efficient and has a larger environmental impact relative to conventional oil production. Compared to conventional oil, much more energy is required to extract oil from non-conventional sources,<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/tarsands/index.cfm
|title=About Tar Sands
|publisher=Oil Shale and Tar Sands Leasing Programmatic EIS
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140904162646/http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/tarsands/index.cfm
|archive-date=2014-09-04
|url-status=dead
}}</ref> so increasing costs and [[carbon emissions]]. Technology, such as using steam injection in oil sands deposits, is being developed to increase the efficiency of unconventional oil production.

[[Synthetic fuel]], created via [[coal]] liquefaction, requires no engine modifications for use in standard automobiles. As a byproduct of oil embargoes during [[Apartheid]] in [[South Africa]], [[Sasol]], using the [[Fischer–Tropsch process]], developed relatively low-cost coal-based fuel. Currently, about 30% of South Africa's transport-fuel (mostly diesel) is produced from coal.<ref>
{{cite news
|url=http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06229/714268-28.stm
|title=South Africa has a way to make oil from coal
|date=2006-08-17
|author=Patrick Barta
|newspaper=[[Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]]
}}
</ref> With crude-oil prices above [[United States dollar|US$]]40 per barrel, this process is now cost-effective.

==Masdar, an experiment in mitigation==
{{Main|Masdar (city)}}
One government which is moving forward with mitigation plans is the emirate of [[Abu Dhabi (emirate)|Abu Dhabi]]. The [[United Arab Emirates]] economy minister stated in 2007 that the UAE do not believe that relying on oil revenues is sustainable, and so are moving to diversify their economies. Besides allotting land for solar power plants and partnering with [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] to build an [[alternative energy]] research institute,<ref>{{cite news
|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16324089
|title=Black Gold Finances the Dreams for Abu Dhabi
|author=Ivan Watson
|publisher=[[NPR]]'s [[All Things Considered]]
|date=November 15, 2007
|author-link=Ivan Watson
|access-date=April 2, 2018
|archive-date=May 5, 2017
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170505221325/http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16324089
|url-status=live
}}</ref> a new city is being constructed {{convert|17|km|mi}} east-southeast of the city of [[Abu Dhabi (city)|Abu Dhabi]], which will rely entirely on [[solar energy]], with a [[Sustainability|sustainable]], [[Low-carbon economy|zero-carbon]], [[Zero waste|zero-waste]] ecology. Known as [[Masdar (city)|Masdar]] (Arabic for ''source''), the initiative is headed by the [[Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company]] (ADFEC)<ref>{{cite web| title=The Masdar Initiative| url=http://www.masdaruae.com/text/introduction.aspx| access-date=2008-02-20| url-status=dead| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080224070240/http://www.masdaruae.com/text/introduction.aspx| archive-date=2008-02-24}}</ref> The project is estimated to take some 10 years to complete, with the first phase complete and habitable in 2009, and a goal of housing 50,000 people and 1,500 businesses.<ref name="bbc2008">{{cite web |title=Work starts on Gulf 'green city' |publisher=BBC |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7237672.stm |date=2008-02-10 |access-date=2008-05-12 |archive-date=2008-02-15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080215203457/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7237672.stm |url-status=live }}</ref> The city is intended to cover {{convert|6|km2|acre}}, with no point further than 200 m from a solar powered [[personal rapid transit]] link,<ref name="npr2008">{{cite news
|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90042092
|title=Abu Dhabi Aims to Build First Carbon-Neutral City
|author=Joe Palca
|publisher=[[NPR]]'s [[Morning Edition]]
|date=May 6, 2008
|author-link=Joe Palca
|access-date=April 2, 2018
|archive-date=May 7, 2008
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080507072025/https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90042092
|url-status=live
}}</ref> housing energy, science and technology communities, commercial areas, a university, and the headquarters of the Future Energy Company.<ref name="bw1739">{{cite journal |url=http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/aug2007/id2007081_901739.htm |title=Zero Carbon; Zero Waste in Abu Dhabi |journal=[[BusinessWeek]] |first=Dianna |last=Dilworth |date=2007-08-01 |access-date=2008-02-10 |archive-date=2008-02-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080220005450/http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/aug2007/id2007081_901739.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> By relying on sustainable energy sources, keeping cars out of the city, returning to older architectural conventions (such as reducing air conditioning costs with large tents and narrow spaces between buildings), using sewage to produce energy and create soil, taking advantage of all recycling opportunities (including for and from construction), and reusing gray water, Masdar is designed to be a city which will consume no oil.<ref name="npr2008"/>

==Bioplastics==
{{Main|Bioplastic}}
Another major factor in petroleum demand is the widespread use of petroleum products such as [[plastic]]. These could be partially replaced by bioplastics, which are derived from renewable plant feedstocks such as vegetable oil, [[corn starch]], hemp plants, pea starch,<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://cordis.europa.eu/search/index.cfm?fuseaction=proj.document&CFTOKEN=19120617&PJ_RCN=7901178&CFID=6808047 |title=Development of a pea starch film with trigger biodegradation properties for agricultural applications |access-date=2008-06-11 |archive-date=2013-12-24 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131224130423/http://cordis.europa.eu/search/index.cfm?fuseaction=proj.document&CFTOKEN=19120617&PJ_RCN=7901178&CFID=6808047 |url-status=live }}</ref> or [[microbiota (microbiology)|microbiota]].<ref>{{Cite journal
| last1 = Chua | first1 = H.
| last2 = Yu | first2 = P. H. F.
| last3 = Ma | first3 = C. K.
| title = Accumulation of Biopolymers in Activated Sludge Biomass
| doi = 10.1385/ABAB:78:1-3:389
| journal = Applied Biochemistry and Biotechnology
| volume = 78
| number = 1–3
| pages = 389–399
| year = 1999

| pmid = 15304709
| s2cid = 189905491
}}</ref> They are used either as a direct replacement for traditional plastics or as blends with traditional plastics. The most common end use market is for packaging materials. Japan has also been a pioneer in bioplastics, incorporating them into electronics and automobiles.

==US government debate over mitigation strategies==
Part of the current debate revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing [[energy conservation]], [[fuel efficiency]], or other energy sources like [[solar power|solar]], [[wind power|wind]], and [[nuclear power]]. At congressional peak oil hearings, Rep. [[Tom Udall]] argued that while rising oil prices would encourage alternatives (both on the supply and demand side), the costs and impacts of other issues involved with petroleum based personal transportation (such as pollution, the economic [[effects of global warming]], security threats caused by sending vast amounts of money to the Middle East, and the costs of road maintenance) should also be taken into account. "Because the price of oil is artificially low, significant private investment in alternative technologies that provide a long-term payback does not exist. Until oil and its alternatives compete in a fair market, new technologies will not thrive."<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/587
|title=Peak Oil Hearing: Udall Testimony
|publisher=United States House of Representatives
|date=2005-12-07
|access-date=2007-12-19
|archive-date=2007-10-12
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071012182842/http://globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/587
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

In 2005, the [[Congressional Budget Office]] suggested that, "the federal government could more effectively increase the efficiency of the nation's automotive fleet by raising gasoline taxes, imposing user fees on the purchase of [[Fuel economy in automobiles|low-mileage-per-gallon]] vehicles, or both." This would give automakers more incentive to research alternative fuel technology and increased efficiency (through lighter vehicles, better aerodynamics, and less wasted energy).<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=6075&sequence=5
|title=Energy
|publisher=Congressional Budget Office
|date=February 2005
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070426233137/http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=6075&sequence=5
|archive-date=April 26, 2007
}}</ref>

[[Hans-Holger Rogner]], a section head at the [[IAEA]], warned in 1997 that the level of incentive required for market driven research and development will actually rise. Because production costs are not expected to decrease and because of the continued emphasis companies give to short-term profits, "a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century."<ref name="HHRogner1997">{{cite journal
| author = Hans-Holger Rogner
|date= November 1997
| title = An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources
| journal = [[Annual Review of Energy and the Environment|Annu. Rev. Energy Environ.]]
| volume = 22
| pages =217–262
| doi = 10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.217|doi-access=free
}}</ref>

The problems of privately funded research and development are not unique to peak oil mitigation. Bronwyn H. Hall, graduate economics professor at the [[Haas School of Business]], points out that, "even if problems associated with incomplete appropriability of the returns to [[R&D]] are solved using [[intellectual property]] protection, [[subsidies]], or tax incentives, it may still be difficult or costly to finance R&D using capital from sources external to the firm or entrepreneur. That is, there is often a wedge, sometimes large, between the rate of return required by an entrepreneur investing his own funds and that required by external investors."<ref name="BHHall2002">{{cite journal
| year = 2002
| title = The Financing of Research and Development
| journal = [[Oxford Review of Economic Policy|Oxf. Rev. Econ. Pol.]]
| volume = 18
| issue = 1
| url = http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~bhhall/papers/BHH%20OxREP02%20R&DFinance.pdf
| quote = NBER Working Paper No. 8773 (February 2002); University of California at Berkeley Dept. of Economics Working Paper No. E02-311 (January 2002)
| access-date = 2021-11-19
| archive-date = 2013-04-23
| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20130423054602/http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~bhhall/papers/BHH%20OxREP02%20R%26DFinance.pdf
| url-status = live
}}</ref> The severity of the problem for energy is echoed in the [[International Energy Agency]]'s latest report<ref name=IEA112006>{{cite web
|url=http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=187
|title=WEO 2006 identifies under-investment in new energy supply as a real risk
|publisher=[[International Energy Agency]]
|date=2006-11-07
|access-date=2007-12-19
|archive-date=2007-12-13
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071213202215/http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=187
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

In the US, transportation by car is guided more by the government than by an [[invisible hand]]. Roads and the [[interstate highway system]] were built by local, state and federal governments and paid for by [[income tax]]es, [[property tax]]es, [[fuel tax]]es, and tolls. The [[Strategic Petroleum Reserve (United States)|Strategic Petroleum Reserve]] is designed to offset market imbalances. Municipal [[parking]] is frequently subsidized.<ref name=bawolek032004>{{cite journal
|url=http://www.ciremagazine.com/article.php?article_id=66
|title=What Drives Parking Investments?
|date=March 2004
|author=Keith Bawolek
|publisher=[[CIRE Magazine]]
}}</ref> [[Emission standard]]s regulate [[pollution]] by cars. US [[Fuel economy in automobiles|fuel economy]] standards exist but are not high enough to have effect. There is also a [[Fuel economy in automobiles#US Energy Tax Act|gas guzzler tax]] of limited scope. The United States offers tax credits for certain vehicles and these frequently are [[hybrid vehicle|hybrids]] or [[compressed natural gas]] cars (see [[Energy Policy Act of 2005]]).

In order to be profitable, many alternatives to oil require the price of oil to remain above some level. Investors in these alternatives must gamble with the limited data on oil reserves available. This imperfect information can lead to a [[market failure]] caused by a [[move by nature]]. One explanation for this is [[Hotelling's rule]] for [[non-renewable resources]]. Even with [[perfect information]] the price of oil correlates with spare capacity and spare capacity does not warn of a peak. For example, in the early 1960s (10 years before oil production peaked in the United States), there was enough spare capacity in US production that Hubbert's predicted peak of 1966-1971 was "at the very least completely unrealistic to most people," preventing the necessary steps being taken to mitigate the situation. The [[Peak oil#Reserves|absence of accurate information]] about spare production capacity exacerbates the current situation.<ref name="AJCavallo2004">
{{cite journal
| author = Alfred J. Cavallo
|date= December 2004
| title = Hubbert's Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts
| journal = [[Natural Resources Research]]
| volume = 13
| issue = 4
|pages= 211–221
|doi= 10.1007/s11053-004-0129-2
|s2cid= 18847791
}}</ref>

[[Lester Brown]] believes this problem might be solved by the government establishing a [[price floor]] for oil. A [[tax shift]] raising gas taxes is the same idea.<ref>{{cite web
|url = http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update54.htm
|title = Let's Raise Gas Taxes and Lower Income Taxes
|author = Lester R. Brown
|date = 2006-05-11
|publisher = [[Earth Policy Institute]]
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20071213101153/http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update54.htm
|archive-date = 2007-12-13
}}</ref> Opponents of such a price floor argue that the markets would distrust the government's ability to keep the policy when oil prices are low.<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6410
|title=An Argument against Oil Price Minimums
|author=Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Doren
|date=2006-06-01
|publisher=[[Cato Institute]]
|access-date=2007-12-19
|archive-date=2007-12-18
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071218152452/https://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6410
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

In 2007, a Pentagon Report, "[https://web.archive.org/web/20160525010506/http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/nsso.htm Space-Based Solar Power: An Opportunity for Strategic Security]" proposed [[Space-based solar power|Space-Based Solar Power]] as a macro solution to peak oil and fossil fuel depletion. Recently a [http://d3ssp.org/ proposal] for US leadership in SBSP won the SECDEF D3 competition. Engineer Keith Henson discussed the scale in "[http://www.theenergycollective.com/keith-henson/362181/dollar-gallon-gasoline Dollar a Gallon Gasoline]". Mike Snead has recently assessed prospects for US fossil fuels and SSP in "[http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2937/1 US fossil fuel energy insecurity and space solar power]". Snead and Henso recently put out a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4GSXjSpipw video].

==Implications of an unmitigated world peak==
{{See also|Hirsch report}}
[[Image:PU200611 Fig1.png|thumb|300px|Oil depletion scenarios]]
According to the [[Hirsch report]] prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005, a global decline in oil production would have serious social and economic implications without due preparation. Initially, an unmitigated peak in oil production would manifest itself as rapidly escalating prices and a worldwide [[energy crisis]]. While past oil shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak means that the production of oil continues to decline, so demand must be reduced to meet supply. If alternatives or conservation (orderly [[demand destruction]]) are not forthcoming, then disorderly demand destruction will occur, with the possible effect that the many products and services produced with oil become scarcer, leading to lower [[living standard]]s.
*Air travel, using roughly 7% of world oil consumption,<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.after-oil.co.uk/runways.htm
|title=How many air-miles are left in the world's fuel tank?
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-date=2017-03-03
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170303104143/http://www.after-oil.co.uk/runways.htm
|url-status=live
}}</ref> would be one of the affected services. The energy density of hydrocarbons and the power density of a jet engine are so necessary for aviation that hydrocarbon fuels are nearly impossible to replace with electricity, to an extent beyond any other common mode of transport.
*A US Army Corps of Engineers report<ref>
{{cite web
|url = http://www.cecer.army.mil/techreports/Westervelt_EnergyTrends/Westervelt_EnergyTrendsTR.pdf
|title = Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations
|author = Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt
|date = September 2005
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070610021159/http://www.cecer.army.mil/techreports/Westervelt_EnergyTrends/Westervelt_EnergyTrendsTR.pdf
|archive-date = 2007-06-10
}}</ref> on the military's energy options states{{cquote|The Army and the nation’s heavy use of oil and natural gas is not well coordinated with either the nation’s or the Earth’s resources and upcoming availability.}}
*Shipping costs<ref>
{{cite web
|url = http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occ_55.pdf
|title = Soaring Oil Prices Will Make The World Rounder
|author = Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal
|date = 2005-10-19
|publisher = [[CIBC World Markets]]
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070415230609/http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occ_55.pdf
|archive-date = 2007-04-15
}}</ref>{{cquote|On average, a one percent increase in fuel prices leads to a 0.4% increase in total freight rates. Using this rule of thumb, the recent doubling in oil prices has raised averaged freight rates by almost 40%.}}
Shipping costs are particularly relevant to a country like Japan that has greater [[food miles]].<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/507
|title=Peak Oil and Japan's Food Dependence
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-date=2005-10-27
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051027123813/http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/507
|url-status=live
}}</ref>
*Increasing cost of oil for importing countries ultimately reduces those countries' purchase of non-oil goods abroad. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco discusses oil and the US [[balance of trade]]:<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-24.html
|title=FRBSF Economic Letter 2006-24 'Oil Prices and the U.S. Trade Deficit'
|date=2006-09-22
|publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-date=2007-06-22
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070622081140/http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-24.html
|url-status=live
}}</ref>{{cquote|Oil prices have almost quadrupled since the beginning of 2002. For an oil-importing country like the U.S., this has substantially increased the cost of petroleum imports. International trade data suggest that this increase has exacerbated the deterioration of the U.S. trade deficit, especially since the second half of 2004.}}
US indications of economic volatility have manifested themselves in the largest increase in [[inflation]] rates in 15 years (Sept. 2005), due mostly to higher energy costs.<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/11/art1full.pdf
|title=Import price rise in 2005 due to continued high energy prices
|publisher=[[US Bureau of Labor Statistics]]
|author=Jeffrey Bogen
|access-date=2007-06-21
|archive-date=2007-06-12
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070612042403/http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/11/art1full.pdf
|url-status=live
}}</ref>
*Significant oil producing countries will have a national purchasing advantage over similar countries with no oil to sell. This can result in larger militaries for oil producers or inflation of the price of whatever commodities they purchase.<ref>
{{cite web
|url = http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/123466
|title = Brad Setser's Web Log
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070614175128/http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/123466/
|archive-date = 2007-06-14
}}</ref> Saudi Arabia purchased US$40 billion worth of arms from the US between 1990 and 2000.<ref>
{{cite web
|url=https://fas.org/asmp/profiles/saudi_arabia.htm
|publisher=Federation of American Scientists
|title=Saudi Arabia
|url-status=dead
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101111112056/https://fas.org/asmp/profiles/saudi_arabia.htm
|archive-date=2010-11-11
}}</ref>
*The United States averaged {{convert|464|USgal|L}} of gas per person in 2004.<ref>
{{cite web
|url = http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/statistics/gasoline_per_capita.html
|title = U.S. Gasoline Per Capita Use by State 2004
|publisher = California Energy Commission
|url-status = dead
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070629123718/http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/statistics/gasoline_per_capita.html
|archive-date = 2007-06-29
}}</ref> Therefore, increased gasoline cost will likely make gas reducing alternatives increasingly necessary and common for lower income US residents.

Those who feel that much more drastic imminent social and cultural changes will occur from oil shortages are known as [[doomers]].<ref>{{cite web
|url=http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=40&Itemid=2
|title=Say You Survive Die-Off: Then What?
|publisher=Culturechange.org
|author=Jenna Orkin
|access-date=2008-05-07
|archive-date=2021-11-23
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211123175807/https://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=40&Itemid=2
|url-status=live
}}</ref>

==See also==
{{Portal|Energy}}
*[[Backstop resources]]
*[[Energy security]]
*[[Global strategic petroleum reserves]]
*[[Low-carbon economy]]
*[[Mitigation of global warming]]
*''[[Making Sweden an Oil-Free Society]]'' - a mitigation proposal
*[[Pickens plan]]
*[[Soft energy path]]
*[[Special Period]] - how [[Cuba]] dealt with the end of cheap [[Soviet Union|Soviet]] oil
*[[World energy resources and consumption]]

==References==
{{Reflist|2}}

==External links==
*[[Amory Lovins]]: [http://www.ted.com/talks/amory_lovins_on_winning_the_oil_endgame Winning the oil endgame] on [[TED.com]] - a discussion of how the United States can stop importing oil by 2045, based on research commissioned by [[The Pentagon]]
*[http://www.odac-info.org/ Oil Depletion Analysis Centre] in the [[United Kingdom]]

{{Peak oil}}
{{Petroleum industry}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Mitigation Of Peak Oil}}
[[Category:Peak oil]]
[[Category:Petroleum politics]]
[[Category:Environmental mitigation|Peak oil]]

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