2023 Warrandyte state by-election

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2023 Warrandyte state by-election
← 2022 26 August 2023 2026 →
Electoral district of Warrandyte in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Nicole Werner Tomas Lightbody
Party Liberal Greens
Popular vote 21,026 6,798
Percentage 57.4% 18.6%
Swing Increase 10.0 Increase 6.8
TCP 71.1% 28.9%
TCP swing Increase 16.8 Increase 28.9
Location of the electoral district of Warrandyte, in Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs
MP before election

Ryan Smith
Liberal

Elected MP

Nicole Werner
Liberal

The 2023 Warrandyte state by-election was held on 26 August 2023 to elect the next member for Warrandyte in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, following the resignation of Liberal MP Ryan Smith.[1]

Background[edit]

The electoral district of Warrandyte was established in 1976 and has consistently been a safe seat for the Liberal Party except from 1982 to 1988 when it was held by Lou Hill of the Labor Party. According the 2021 Census, Warrandyte's median age is 43 with a weekly median household income of $2,134 while more than 37% of residents attaining a bachelor's degree or higher.[2] The district is characterised by the southern banks of the Yarra River, rolling hills, lush greenery, and pockets of bushland.

Resignation of Ryan Smith[edit]

Ryan Smith was first elected at the 2006 Victorian state election, replacing long-serving member Phil Honeywood who had held the seat since the 1988 election. Smith would continue to keep Warrandyte as a safe Liberal seat barring the 2018 and 2022 elections where it became marginal following the successes of the Australian Labor Party. Smith retained the seat at the 2022 election with a two-party-preferred vote of 54.2%, a slight swing from the previous election where there was a swing of over 7 per cent against him. Following the election of John Pesutto as leader, he was dropped from the shadow cabinet, having been a shadow minister under Matthew Guy and Michael O'Brien.

Smith announced his retirement in May 2023 after 16 years in parliament, with effect from 7 July. Smith did not tell leader John Pesutto of his resignation, with Pesutto instead learning about it through the media. He said that he had “become increasingly uncomfortable with the growing negative tone of politics, both internally and more broadly,” generally interpreted as Smith’s disquiet over Pesutto’s handling of the Moira Deeming-related leadership tensions that embroiled the Victorian Liberal Party in early and mid-2023.[3][4]

Candidates[edit]

Candidates are listed in the order they will appear on the ballot.[5]

Nominated candidates[edit]

Party Candidate[6] Background
Sustainable Australia Jack Corcoran Aged care volunteer and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election[7]
Liberal Nicole Werner Pentecostal youth pastor and candidate for Box Hill at the 2022 state election[8][9]
Freedom Greg Cheesman Businessman and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election[5]
Democratic Labour Cary De Wit Roofing company manager and candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election[6]
Independent Wai Man Raymond Chow Mathematician and radio broadcaster[5]
Independent Morgan Ranieri Businessman[5]
Victorian Socialists Colleen Bolger Attorney, trade unionist and candidate for Melbourne at the 2022 state election[10]
Family First Richard Griffith-Jones Hotelier, anti-gender movement activist and candidate for Ringwood at the 2022 state election[11]
Independent Philip Jenkins
Independent Maya Tesa Businesswoman; candidate at the 2023 Aston federal by-election and Liberal Democratic candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan at the 2022 state election[12]
Greens Tomas Lightbody Deputy Mayor of Manningham[13]
Independent Alan Max Menadue Defence contractor, candidate for Prahran at the 2022 state election[5]

Liberal[edit]

The Liberal Party preselected Nicole Werner to run in the by-election. Werner stood as a candidate for Box Hill in 2022.[14]

Nicole is a former Pentecostal youth pastor[15] and charity business developer.[16]

Eight other candidates also nominated for the Liberal Party preselection, including:

There was also speculation that Tim Smith, the former MP for Kew would stand for preselection but no nominations were received on the cutoff date of 7 June 2023.[17] Other speculated candidates for included 2022 candidates Lucas Moon (Richmond) and Cynthia Watson (Ringwood) as well as Caroline Inge, federal vice-president of the Liberal Party.

Labor[edit]

On 26 July 2023, it was reported that the Victorian Labor Party would not contest the by-election to instead focus their resources for the 2026 Victorian state election.[18] In the 2022 state election, the Labor Party ran Naomi Oakley who received 33.16% of the primary vote.[19]

Greens[edit]

Tomas Lightbody is running as the Greens' candidate in the by-election. Lightbody was elected to Manningham City Council at the age of 22 and has since been elected as Deputy Mayor of Manningham council.[20]

Other[edit]

Maya Tesa stood as an independent.[21] She has previously run in the Aston federal by-election where she received 7% of the primary vote [22] and as a candidate for the LDP in Jagajaga and the North-Eastern Metropolitan Region in 2022.

Victorian Socialists candidate Colleen Bolger is calling for a rent freeze.[21] Greg Cheesman is running with the Freedom Party of Victoria.[6]

Family First Party candidate Richard Griffith-Jones has promised to introduce if elected legislation to ban drag queen storytime in public venues.[23]

Raymond Hoser, a Snake Catcher[21] and Whistleblower, announced his intention to run as an independent candidate, however this did not materialise.

Historical two-party-preferred vote[edit]

Two-party-preferred vote in Warrandyte, 1996–2022
Election 1996 1999 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
  Liberal 63.90% 63.50% 56.30% 59.00% 63.87% 61.60% 53.88% 54.20%
  Labor 36.10% 36.50% 43.70% 41.00% 36.13% 38.40% 46.12% 45.80%
Government L/NP ALP ALP ALP L/NP ALP ALP ALP

Previous election results[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly) § Warrandyte.[edit]
2022 Victorian state election: Warrandyte[24][25][26][27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Ryan Smith 21,344 47.3 −2.8
Labor Naomi Oakley 14,946 33.2 −2.3
Greens Deepak Joshi 5,283 11.7 +1.1
Family First Richard Vernay 1,823 4.0 +4.0
Animal Justice Nicola Rae 1,020 2.3 −1.5
Independent Cynthia Pilli 659 1.5 +1.5
Total formal votes 45,075 96.6 +1.5
Informal votes 1,582 3.4 −1.5
Turnout 46,657 91.6 +1.1
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Ryan Smith 24,482 54.3 +0.5
Labor Naomi Oakley 20,593 45.7 −0.5
Liberal hold Swing +0.5

Results[edit]

2023 Warrandyte state by-election[28][29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Nicole Werner 21,921 57.3 +9.9
Greens Tomas Lightbody 7,130 18.6 +6.9
Democratic Labour Cary de Wit 2,204 5.8 +5.8
Independent Maya Tesa 1,556 4.1 +4.1
Victorian Socialists Colleen Bolger 1,459 3.8 +3.8
Family First Richard Griffith-Jones 1,073 2.8 −1.2
Sustainable Australia Jack Corcoran 1,030 2.7 +2.7
Freedom Greg Cheesman 846 2.2 +2.2
Independent Wai Man Raymond Chow 694 1.8 +1.8
Independent Morgan Ranieri 168 0.4 +0.4
Independent Alan Max Menadue 121 0.3 +0.3
Independent Philip Jenkins 77 0.2 +0.2
Total formal votes 38,279 94.2 −2.4
Informal votes 2,344 5.8 +2.4
Turnout 40,623 79.7 −11.9
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal Nicole Werner 27,334 71.0 +16.7
Greens Tomas Lightbody 11,172 29.0 +29.0
Liberal hold  

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Victorian Liberal MP Ryan Smith quits politics, triggering byelection". The Age. 30 May 2023.
  2. ^ "Warrandyte (Eastern Metropolitan)". Australian Bureau of Statistics Census All persons QuickStats. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2021. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  3. ^ "Conservative Victorian Liberal MP Ryan Smith's resignation blindsides leader John Pesutto | Victorian politics | The Guardian". amp.theguardian.com.
  4. ^ "Victorian state Liberal MP Ryan Smith resigns, sparking by-election in Melbourne's north-east - ABC News". amp.abc.net.au.
  5. ^ a b c d e Green, Antony (August 2023). "Warrandyte by-election 2023". ABC News. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  6. ^ a b c "Warrandyte District by-election candidates". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 4 August 2023.
  7. ^ "Jack Corcoran for Warrandyte". Sustainable Australia. 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2023.
  8. ^ Trioli, Virginia (21 June 2023). "Liberal candidate for Warrandyte Nicole Werner says community issues are her focus". ABC Melbourne.
  9. ^ Smethurst, Annika (19 June 2023). "Pesutto pins hopes on cost-of-living crisis in Warrandyte byelection". The Age. Retrieved 11 July 2023.
  10. ^ "Victorian Socialists announce candidate for Warrandyte by-election". Victorian Socialists. 7 July 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2023.
  11. ^ Deery, Shannon (1 August 2023). "Warrandyte by-election candidate Richard Griffith-Jones vows to ban drag storytime if elected". Herald Sun. Archived from the original on 4 August 2023. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  12. ^ McKenzie, Parker (1 March 2023). "Independent candidate announces nomination for Aston by-election". StarMail.
  13. ^ "Deputy Mayor announced as Greens candidate for Warrandyte by-election". Australian Greens Victoria. 28 June 2023.
  14. ^ "Charity business developer Nicole Werner preselected to run for Liberal Party in Warrandyte by-election". ABC News (Australia). 18 June 2023. Retrieved 18 June 2023.
  15. ^ Carmody, Broede (18 June 2023). "Former pastor Nicole Werner wins Warrandyte Liberal Party preselection". The Age.
  16. ^ "Charity business developer Nicole Ta-Ei Werner to run on Liberal Party ticket in Warrandyte by-election". ABC News. 18 June 2023 – via www.abc.net.au.
  17. ^ Baxendale, Rachel (8 June 2023). "Nine to contest state Libs seat preselection". The Australian. Melbourne, Victoria. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  18. ^ Carmody, Broede (26 July 2023). "'Abandoned their own supporters': Labor won't run in Warrandyte byelection, MPs told". The Age. Retrieved 26 July 2023.
  19. ^ "Warrandyte District results". www.vec.vic.gov.au.
  20. ^ "Councillor Tomas Lightbody | Manningham City Council". www.manningham.vic.gov.au.
  21. ^ a b c Cowie, Tom (22 July 2023). "Snake catcher, Gen Z hopefuls among field for Warrandyte byelection". The Age. Retrieved 26 July 2023.
  22. ^ "Aston By-election 2023 Results". abc.net.au.
  23. ^ https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a_FBK&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fwarrandyte-byelection-candidate-richard-griffithjones-vows-to-ban-drag-storytime-if-elected%2Fnews-story%2F596fe83b6315002b36be43d428445889&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-7-SCORE
  24. ^ Green, Antony (11 January 2023). "VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  25. ^ VIC 2021 Final Redistribution, ABC News. [Retrieved 1 January 2023.
  26. ^ Warrandyte District results, Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  27. ^ Full preference distributions – 2022 State election, Victorian Electoral Commission. [Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  28. ^ "Warrandyte District by-election provisional results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 4 September 2023.
  29. ^ "Results - Warrandyte by-election 2023". ABC Elections. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 4 September 2023.
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